Scottish Parliament election - 5th May 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A year is a long time in politics (as I think the past year in Scottish politics demonstrates pretty clearly) and who knows what might change, but the SNP will obviously be re-elected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much drama within Scottish Labour presently, which is hardly surprising given everything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hopefully whoever replaces him has less of a sweaty salesman vibe when under pressure. As I've said before, that really can't have helped.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think maybe you're confusing what you'd like to happen with what is likely to happen (of course sometimes the two do converge). The reality is that while the Scottish Conservatives have a very solid base vote they have almost no capacity for expansion: for Scots who do not already vote Tory (at least some of the time) the party is beyond the pale. Not because it is right wing, but because it is seen as opposing Scottish interests (however defined). I mean it's kind of hard to overlook the fact that the thing that did the most damage to Scottish Labour was the apparently minor transgression of campaigning alongside - and celebrating alongside after the results - the Tories during the Referendum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No Parliament can be bound by its predecessors so what was being proposed was dead letter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few months before the referendum Labour topped the poll in Glasgow and much of the rest of the Central Belt in the European elections and in prior to that had been doing decently in by-elections; yes, Euro elections are a low turnout joke and yes by-elections are what they are, but I think not so much that we can't say this is indicative that something pretty substantial changed as a result of the referendum campaign. Obviously long term problems contributed heavily and obviously there were also seriously important medium term political changes, but...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's as much a 'need' for Labour as there ever was (SNP populism can only ever go so far), just evidently no place for Scottish Labour as it developed after the mid 1980s. Which is a significant problem; I honestly think the thing for them to do is mentally start from scratch.

Anyway you couldn't guarantee that even a majority of the remaining Labour vote would stay loyal to a United Unionist (urgh) party. Come to think of it, could you even be certain of a significant minority staying loyal?

Besides Scotland's future is going to be increasingly with these elections (whether in an independent state or some kind of semi-independent statelet) which are PR affairs anyway. The logic of UNITE THE ETC doesn't really apply so much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...the SNP can be a left-libertarian sort...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

was somebody supposedly putting around rumours and innuendos about her during the leadership campaign last year or am I misremembering something?

Yes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I agree with you but it seems that Sturgeon has fought off any desire to make immigration the issue in Scotland. In England, that isn't the case.

That's because Scotland is the whitest part of Great Britain. Emigration has made a bigger mark on Scottish society over the past century than immigration...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, Sturgeon is a tremendously talented bullsh!tter (even better than Salmond was) capable of making cardboard look like gold (and what she can do that Salmond couldn't is somehow give off the impression that even she herself believes that, yes, that cardboard is gold, why on earth would you suggest that it is cardboard?) and clearly has solid tactical instincts (a lot of politicians don't). In terms of actual governance she does not impress, but happily for her and the SNP the opposition is such a joke that this does not actually matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that was the case then why is UKIP making inroads in Wales and not Scotland?

Because Wales isn't Scotland. Amongst other things (and there are a lot of things) it is integrated (socially, economically, culturally etc) with England to an infinitely greater extent and while it does have a nationalist party it doesn't have one that's a massive catch-all affair that polled 50% of the vote in a General Election.