UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[IceAgeComing]

I can't link anything but the news is everywhere anyway: Junior Doctors in England have voted to strike with 98% voting for full strike action and 99.2% supporting some form of industrial action that wasn't a strike on a 75% turnout.  Surely that must be some form of record?

[ChrisDR68]

Just discovered this treasure trove of opinion poll data from Mark Pack on this website from 1943 to the present day:

http://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

Download the spreadsheet and you can see the effect major events have on the polls (for example the nose dive Labour suffers during the IMF crisis in October 1976 and also during the winter of discontent in January 1979).

I've worked out the average ratings for the 3 big parties of the general election I'm most interested in (1979) as this was the first election I was ever aware of (being 10 years old at the time) and with hindsight it was also a pivotal election in the history of post war Britain:

36 opinion polls - March-May 1979 (not including exit polls)

Labour 38.5%
Conservatives 49.1%
Liberals 9.4%

Take off 1% from each parties score to take into account Northern Ireland (which most opinion polls don't include) and Labour ends up 0.6% too high, the Conservatives 4.2% too high and the Liberals 5.4% too low over this 3 month period compared to the final result.

A general trend from Conservative to Liberal while Labour remains steady seems to be the obvious conclusion overall for this general election

[afleitch]

Tories with a 15pt lead with ComRes, the highest in any poll since January 2010 I think.

[Clyde1998]

Tories with a 15pt lead with ComRes, the highest in any poll since January 2010 I think.

Con - 42% (NC)
Lab - 27% (-2)
UKIP - 15% (+2)
LD - 7% (NC)       
SNP - 5% (NC)
Green - 3% (NC)
Other - 1% (NC)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it cherry pick o clock already?

[Clyde1998]

ComRes Data

There are no circumstances under which British troops should be sent to fight a ground war against ISIS
Agree - 25%
Disagree - 52%
Only Green voters support this statement

Killing British citizens in Syria is justified if the security services say they have joined ISIS
Agree - 65%
Disagree - 15%

The UK should take part in air strikes against ISIS, even if they do not have UN approval
Agree - 46%
Disagree - 32%
Strong disagreement from Green and SNP voters, with high support from Conservative and UKIP voters

I trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me and my family safe
Agree - 17% (34% of 2015 Lab Voters)
Disagree - 58% (34% of 2015 Lab Voters)

I trust David Cameron to keep me and my family safe
Agree - 39%
Disagree - 39%

We have to accept infringements of privacy on the internet for the sake of fighting terrorism
Agree - 70%
Disagree - 17%

Labour MPs should remove Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party
Agree - 40% (29% of Lab 2015 Voters)
Disagree - 31% (47% of Lab 2015 Voters)

I would be prepared to pay more for energy bills in order to reduce climate change
Agree - 23%
Disagree - 57%
The younger the respondent, the more likely they were to agree with the statement

[YL]

Is it cherry pick o clock already?

As can be seen here, most polls other than the ComRes Sunday polls have shown a Con lead over Lab of around 6 or 7 points, fairly similar to the election result.

[Silent Hunter]

Is it cherry pick o clock already?

As can be seen here, most polls other than the ComRes Sunday polls have shown a Con lead over Lab of around 6 or 7 points, fairly similar to the election result.

That's still not good. Problem is for all the media hostility, Labour keeps giving them material.

[ChrisDR68]

Is it cherry pick o clock already?

As can be seen here, most polls other than the ComRes Sunday polls have shown a Con lead over Lab of around 6 or 7 points, fairly similar to the election result.

That's still not good. Problem is for all the media hostility, Labour keeps giving them material.

If Corbyn's Labour Party is crushed in 2020 (as I expect it will be) is media hostility going to be the main excuse used for it?

[Silent Hunter]

Some people will use it, that's for sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All above board I'm sure, nothing to see here.

[Silent Hunter]

Has temporarily removed herself from the SNP whip

[Phony Moderate]

The Tories have finally overtaken Labour on the "who is to blame for the cuts?" question and the government's general economic strategy seems to be less popular than it was just before the GE.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qng2o5724u/InternalResults_151124_SpendingReview_Website.pdf

[Silent Hunter]

While John McDonnell has just overtaken everyone in something...

I'm sure he meant well, but the optics of that are just awful.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basically people who are not noted for having a sense of humour should refrain from joking in public.

[afleitch]

Corbyn won't vote for strikes. Not clear at present if Benn was consulted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well this has all become absurdly messy very quickly.

[Silent Hunter]

Some of the stuff this leadership is doing is amateur for a Student Union.

[Joe Republic]

While John McDonnell has just overtaken everyone in something...

I'm sure he meant well, but the optics of that are just awful.

Basically people who are not noted for having a sense of humour should refrain from joking in public.

Well this has all become absurdly messy very quickly.

Some of the stuff this leadership is doing is amateur for a Student Union.

Do you guys enjoy talking among yourselves in whisper and code?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[YL]

Some of the stuff this leadership is doing is amateur for a Student Union.

I'm not particularly going to defend Corbyn, whose leadership skills look to be roughly what I'd have expected from his CV, but if some of the hawks wouldn't take no for an answer (and that's the impression I'm getting) then they have to share the blame for this.  No-one can reasonably have expected Corbyn to support air strikes.

[Hnv1]

Some of the stuff this leadership is doing is amateur for a Student Union.

I'm not particularly going to defend Corbyn, whose leadership skills look to be roughly what I'd have expected from his CV, but if some of the hawks wouldn't take no for an answer (and that's the impression I'm getting) then they have to share the blame for this.  No-one can reasonably have expected Corbyn to support air strikes.

No one would reasonably think Corbyn could head a state and marshal a military campaign if necessary  as well past this. I doubt even Labour members would oppose some Tornado airstrikes here

[Blair]

Issue is Corbyn is a pacifist-the biggest mistake by Burnham and Co in the leadership race was not to make this more of an issue-Corbyn will never support military action, even in defensive cases like Falklands or to stop genocide like in Serbia.

His handling of the issue has been awful, especially as he's going to have to offer a free vote. He said he wanted the Cabinet to reach a decision, the cabinet told him they supported strikes and he just went over there heads.

If he imposes a whip on this Burnham, Benn, Powell, Healey, Alexander and Falconer should resign, it's time for the moderates to do what Corbyn did to New Labour-sit on the sidelines

[afleitch]

This is all happening too soon. Can't Labour just piss about forever? It's better than a Netflix Original.

[Silent Hunter]

You should not have to find out a key policy decision made by your boss on social media. That's basic.

I think Labour has to allow a free vote here - IMHO, free votes should be the norm for any decision on military action.