UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[vileplume]

I assume the tradesman votes more Tory?

Er... no. Other way round

Since when did tradespeople and people who own small business vote Labour?! Not since the Blair landslides of '97 and '01. Cameron would have crushed Miliband with this demographic and Corbyn will likely do even worse.

[IceAgeComing]

The Tories want to bring a voter ID law. Currently 7.5% of the population don't have an photo ID.

So gerrymandering, individual registration and now voter ID. Anybody noticing some sort of theme?

Er they aren't gerrymandering. Labour seats particularly those in Wales tend to be grossly undersized and the current boundaries are based on old data so there needs to be some change. It's the boundary commission that has proposed some new horrendous constituencies not the Tories.

As for photo ID it is probably strongly supported by the public as a whole. It is quite easy in Britain to walk into the polling station and pretend to be anyone. If this is introduced the government will be pressurised to make access to id easier. However it is not the in person vote but instead the postal vote where the strongest most credible allegations of electoral fraud happen particularly in Labour areas with large Muslim populations such as Tower Hamlets, Nelson, Halifax, parts of Birmingham etc. for example fake voters on the rolls and 'community leaders' filling out everyone's ballots for them or heavily controlling how the members of their community vote. That's the part of the voting process which needs tightening up the most.

I'm always sceptical when one party decides by themselves to change anything involving the electoral process; especially when conveniently its likely to benefit them - which is definately the case with the boundary changes.  A big part of the reason why the commission has come out with a load of awful seats is because they don't really have any choice: the 5% threshold is well too inflexible to allow for .  I'd have supported a reform that equalised Wales with the rest of the UK - I'd even support a reduction of the size of the House, but I do think that the Commission needs flexibility to add a few MPs if it leads to people being better represented - there's no real difference in cost between 600 MPs and 603, but the latter might lead to a few of the awful boundaries being replaced by good ones.  The bit that I oppose most is the whole 5% threshold thing: 10% would be so much better and allow the Commission to draw better seats.  There's also the fact that the current review was conveniently started on an older register right after individual registration was brought in rather than a newer one that was available; which would represent traditional Labour areas better.

How many cases of impersonation were there at the last General Election?  I can guarantee that the number will be incredibly low, certainly less than the number of legitimate voters that an ID law would stop voting.  I don't think that voter ID is necessary and I'd only ever support it if appropriate ID was provided to everyone in the UK free of charge: but that's not what they are proposing so it needs to be opposed.  You've correctly identified several areas where we need to enforce current laws better and make sure that everyone has a free right to vote: but ID laws aren't ever going to stop that: especially since the community that you've identified are generally pretty likely to have forms of ID.

[parochial boy]

The Tories want to bring a voter ID law. Currently 7.5% of the population don't have an photo ID.

So gerrymandering, individual registration and now voter ID. Anybody noticing some sort of theme?

Er they aren't gerrymandering. Labour seats particularly those in Wales tend to be grossly undersized and the current boundaries are based on old data so there needs to be some change. It's the boundary commission that has proposed some new horrendous constituencies not the Tories.

As for photo ID it is probably strongly supported by the public as a whole. It is quite easy in Britain to walk into the polling station and pretend to be anyone. If this is introduced the government will be pressurised to make access to id easier. However it is not the in person vote but instead the postal vote where the strongest most credible allegations of electoral fraud happen particularly in Labour areas with large Muslim populations such as Tower Hamlets, Nelson, Halifax, parts of Birmingham etc. for example fake voters on the rolls and 'community leaders' filling out everyone's ballots for them or heavily controlling how the members of their community vote. That's the part of the voting process which needs tightening up the most.

Per Anthony Wells, under the proposed changes, Labour need a 12.6% lead to win a majority, against 5.7% for the Tories, that is beyond evening things out. Bear in mind that Labour's advantage has disappeared since losing Scotland, and now that their support is increasingly concentrated in cities, the reforms are now just exacerbating an already Conservative advantage.

As for ID, there is precious little evidence of widespread electoral fraud, outside the fevered imaginations of Farage types about "postal ballots", there will be a far greater damage to the functioning of democracy by effectively disenfranchising millions of people (and the country does have a lot of people for whom £30 on a provision driving licence is a stretch too far).

Add that to "individual voter registration" which took a lot of more transient people (i.e. poor, young) of the roll, and you there are some questions to be asked.

[vileplume]

The Tories want to bring a voter ID law. Currently 7.5% of the population don't have an photo ID.

So gerrymandering, individual registration and now voter ID. Anybody noticing some sort of theme?

Er they aren't gerrymandering. Labour seats particularly those in Wales tend to be grossly undersized and the current boundaries are based on old data so there needs to be some change. It's the boundary commission that has proposed some new horrendous constituencies not the Tories.

As for photo ID it is probably strongly supported by the public as a whole. It is quite easy in Britain to walk into the polling station and pretend to be anyone. If this is introduced the government will be pressurised to make access to id easier. However it is not the in person vote but instead the postal vote where the strongest most credible allegations of electoral fraud happen particularly in Labour areas with large Muslim populations such as Tower Hamlets, Nelson, Halifax, parts of Birmingham etc. for example fake voters on the rolls and 'community leaders' filling out everyone's ballots for them or heavily controlling how the members of their community vote. That's the part of the voting process which needs tightening up the most.

Per Anthony Wells, under the proposed changes, Labour need a 12.6% lead to win a majority, against 5.7% for the Tories, that is beyond evening things out. Bear in mind that Labour's advantage has disappeared since losing Scotland, and now that their support is increasingly concentrated in cities, the reforms are now just exacerbating an already Conservative advantage.

As for ID, there is precious little evidence of widespread electoral fraud, outside the fevered imaginations of Farage types about "postal ballots", there will be a far greater damage to the functioning of democracy by effectively disenfranchising millions of people (and the country does have a lot of people for whom £30 on a provision driving licence is a stretch too far).

Add that to "individual voter registration" which took a lot of more transient people (i.e. poor, young) of the roll, and you there are some questions to be asked.

Well before the last election it was received wisdom that the Tories could never win a majority as the electoral map was so tilted towards Labour. Then the Tories against nearly everyone's prediction won a majority and received wisdom was blown out of the water. So in order to reverse their current disadvantage Labour need to swing the marginal back towards them. Though I do agree that with Corbyn at the helm the marginals given their typical demographic profile are likely to move further away while Labour's support gets even more packed into the Islingtons and Hackneys etc. This isn't the Tories fault though it's the fault of the electoral system which Labour were perfectly happy with when it benefitted them. Plus Labour doesn't need a majority to form a government as the SNP will certainly side with them over the Tories (how stable said government would be is another question entirely).

There is little evidence of widespread voter fraud, true. Though it does exist in a handful of rotten boroughs (unfortunately those with high Muslim populations do tend to be the primary culprits. Tower Hamlets in particular is a hotbed of fraud indeed the former mayor was found guilty of it, one of Jeremy Corbyn's advisors (the blue haired woman) has a conviction for electoral fraud in Newham and there have been several credible, high profile allegations of fraud (fake registrations and the like) in Halifax and Nelson.

If this voter ID law is introduced and I'm doubtful that it will be the government will be forced to provide free and accessible ID. There would be too much of a backlash/negative publicity if they didn't.

[vileplume]

The Tories want to bring a voter ID law. Currently 7.5% of the population don't have an photo ID.

So gerrymandering, individual registration and now voter ID. Anybody noticing some sort of theme?

Er they aren't gerrymandering. Labour seats particularly those in Wales tend to be grossly undersized and the current boundaries are based on old data so there needs to be some change. It's the boundary commission that has proposed some new horrendous constituencies not the Tories.

As for photo ID it is probably strongly supported by the public as a whole. It is quite easy in Britain to walk into the polling station and pretend to be anyone. If this is introduced the government will be pressurised to make access to id easier. However it is not the in person vote but instead the postal vote where the strongest most credible allegations of electoral fraud happen particularly in Labour areas with large Muslim populations such as Tower Hamlets, Nelson, Halifax, parts of Birmingham etc. for example fake voters on the rolls and 'community leaders' filling out everyone's ballots for them or heavily controlling how the members of their community vote. That's the part of the voting process which needs tightening up the most.

I'm always sceptical when one party decides by themselves to change anything involving the electoral process; especially when conveniently its likely to benefit them - which is definately the case with the boundary changes.  A big part of the reason why the commission has come out with a load of awful seats is because they don't really have any choice: the 5% threshold is well too inflexible to allow for .  I'd have supported a reform that equalised Wales with the rest of the UK - I'd even support a reduction of the size of the House, but I do think that the Commission needs flexibility to add a few MPs if it leads to people being better represented - there's no real difference in cost between 600 MPs and 603, but the latter might lead to a few of the awful boundaries being replaced by good ones.  The bit that I oppose most is the whole 5% threshold thing: 10% would be so much better and allow the Commission to draw better seats.  There's also the fact that the current review was conveniently started on an older register right after individual registration was brought in rather than a newer one that was available; which would represent traditional Labour areas better.

How many cases of impersonation were there at the last General Election?  I can guarantee that the number will be incredibly low, certainly less than the number of legitimate voters that an ID law would stop voting.  I don't think that voter ID is necessary and I'd only ever support it if appropriate ID was provided to everyone in the UK free of charge: but that's not what they are proposing so it needs to be opposed.  You've correctly identified several areas where we need to enforce current laws better and make sure that everyone has a free right to vote: but ID laws aren't ever going to stop that: especially since the community that you've identified are generally pretty likely to have forms of ID.

Well the proposed seats only are awful because the commission has this silly thing about not splitting local government wards even where the wards are stupidly large like in Birmingham. Of course the government is pushing for some of these changes for partisan reasons as did Labour when they were in government e.g. their refusal to reduce Welsh representation despite the setting up of the Welsh Assembly. The ability of governments to bend the rules slightly in their favour is not a fault of any specific party but a fault of the system which needs to be fixed.

I personally am not a big fan of ID because as you say the areas where fraud is worst won't be fixed by ID. However if it were introduced the government would be pressured into making voter ID free and accessible to all, to not do this would cause a serious and unwanted backlash (they remember the Poll Tax all too well). I personally doubt it will be introduced anyway, the Tories are very good at messaging and PR and have a habit of floating popular but badly thought through ideas like this one and then scrapping them a few months later (see grammar schools) typically to distract from something else, unpopular or controversial, that they're doing at the same time e.g. Brexit, NHS reforms etc..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Since when did tradespeople and people who own small business vote Labour?! Not since the Blair landslides of '97 and '01. Cameron would have crushed Miliband with this demographic and Corbyn will likely do even worse.

Er... plenty of people in the trades vote Labour? Of course if we man 'man who owns a small building firm and employs a handful of people' or the like, sure, he's almost certainly a Tory, but he's also not the sort of person I was thinking of. Not the same demographic at all; another mark against the C2 category!*

_{*Though some of those people would actually be graded as AB! Depends on what job description they've given themselves; of course that job titles are the main thing looked at for all these things is problematic as well, but that's another matter entirely...}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Funny business in heavily Pakistani and Bangladeshi wards has, for the record, involved members of a very wide range of parties (Tories and LibDems as well as Labour, to say nothing of local parties which turned out to be the issue in Tower Hamlets). And often people who have been members of multiple parties over the years. Most of it is about local power and local politics, naturally.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trollish suggestion to reduce the impact of possible electoral fraud in such areas: move all local polls to GE day

[IceAgeComing]

Well the proposed seats only are awful because the commission has this silly thing about not splitting local government wards even where the wards are stupidly large like in Birmingham. Of course the government is pushing for some of these changes for partisan reasons as did Labour when they were in government e.g. their refusal to reduce Welsh representation despite the setting up of the Welsh Assembly. The ability of governments to bend the rules slightly in their favour is not a fault of any specific party but a fault of the system which needs to be fixed.

I personally am not a big fan of ID because as you say the areas where fraud is worst won't be fixed by ID. However if it were introduced the government would be pressured into making voter ID free and accessible to all, to not do this would cause a serious and unwanted backlash (they remember the Poll Tax all too well). I personally doubt it will be introduced anyway, the Tories are very good at messaging and PR and have a habit of floating popular but badly thought through ideas like this one and then scrapping them a few months later (see grammar schools) typically to distract from something else, unpopular or controversial, that they're doing at the same time e.g. Brexit, NHS reforms etc..

The Welsh Assembly didn't have primary legislative power until 2011 (I think; that's when the referendum was at least); I'd argue that meant that they were entitled to the extra seats in 2010 at least.  Certainly that seems to have been the government position; they removed the extra Scottish seats after all...

Plus its not like state governments in America that have introduced voter IDs have been "pressured" into making ID easer to get; indeed several have introduced voter ID and in the same bill have made getting the required ID harder to get.  Saying "well if x happens y will definately happen!!!" is silly since usually y doesn't happen, especially if it would hurt the governing party...

[Silent Hunter]

Martin McGuiness resigns as Deputy NI First Minister, taking down power sharing executive

[Phony Moderate]

Professor Anthony King, political and election commentator, has died at 82. He was a regular on BBC election night coverage for years and wrote a "Britain at the Polls" series, among other things.

[ChrisDR68]

Professor Anthony King, political and election commentator, has died at 82. He was a regular on BBC election night coverage for years and wrote a "Britain at the Polls" series, among other things.

He appeared on all the BBC general election night programmes from 1983 to 2005.

His most famous quote (after being asked about the BBC exit poll in 1997 predicting a Labour majority of close on 200 seats) come at 6 mins and 30 secs into this clip:

"Landslide is much too weak a word.

I offer you the following metaphor - it's an asteriod hitting the planet and destroying practically all life as we know it"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouz0DVOE1go



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-38596584

Perceptive political analyst and quite an excitable character on election night.

[Silent Hunter]

Great guy. Rest in Peace.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

RIP Snowden

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-38611497

Oh wait, I meant Snowdon.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

RIP Snowden

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-38611497

Oh wait, I meant Snowdon.

RIP, HP.

[Devout Centrist]

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

[Green Line]

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

Brexit means Brexit

[Devout Centrist]

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

Brexit means Brexit

Suicide means suicide, I guess

[Angel of Death]

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

Could still just be a (misguided) attempt at playing chicken with the EU.

[Lord Halifax]

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

Brexit means Brexit

Suicide means suicide, I guess

And hyperbole means hyperbole.

[parochial boy]

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

No worries, the UK can become even more of a tax haven.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I don't know why remainers are hyping up the whole AUGH THE ENTIRE ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE thing. They're just setting themselves up for "well, see, not everything is on fire and you're aurally causing the investment to go down by being so panicking you unpatriotic sucker". The problem is more that this will be a lost decade while we endlessly muddle on what happens next.

May's going for the hard Brexit, I see.

No worries, the UK can become even more of a tax haven.

True, but there is a certain irony you saying that residing in Switzerland (and it's not like being in the EU stops countries acting as havens anyway).

[Phony Moderate]

I can't be the only one who thinks that PM Boris might have gone for a soft(er) Brexit.

[parochial boy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No worries, the UK can become even more of a tax haven.
[/quote]

True, but there is a certain irony you saying that residing in Switzerland (and it's not like being in the EU stops countries acting as havens anyway).
[/quote]

I come from two of the most politically unpleasant countries in Europe - just makes me used to despair on election nights

And the EU does a fairly decent job of curbing the worst excesses of members that don't begin with the letters "Lux". An EU type institution is certainly the only way that you could ever really clamp down on Tax Havens, as it really isn't for individual states to do it by themselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I don't know why remainers are hyping up the whole AUGH THE ENTIRE ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE thing. They're just setting themselves up for "well, see, not everything is on fire and you're aurally causing the investment to go down by being so panicking you unpatriotic sucker".

Well you saw the campaign they ran didn't you.