UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[MaxQue]

I have question for the forum Brits.

It is harder to win government for the Tories than it is for Labour. e.g. Labour got a larger majority on a smaller vote share in 2005 than the Tories did in 2015. This difference is usually attributed to two reasons.

1) Labour vote collapses to virtually nil in many Tory safe seats, while the Tories still get half decent results in many Labour safe seats, resulting in many more wasted votes for the Tories.

2) The constituency map doesn't reflect actual populations. The Tories hold many overpopulated suburban seats while Labour holds declining rust belt areas.

I understand the first argument but not the second. Didn't the UK have a redistribution a few years ago? Wouldn't that have fixed the discrepancy? If not, how come?

The redistribution (we say boundary changes) didn't go into effect. The LibDems threw them out when they lost the AV referendum and the changes to the House of Lords around 2012-13 time.

However, the Tories put boundary changes in their manifesto, so we can assume 2020 will be fought on new boundaries, with a smaller house of 600 members.

But no boundaries can change the fact that the Labour vote is clustered into certain regions while the Tory vote is spread much more thinly.

I'm quite sure the plan to have a smaller house at 600 was mooted in the last days. I suppose there is too much incumbents afraid of losing out seats.

[MaxQue]

The inquiry into the polling cock-up was, unsurprisingly, a complete waste of time. Also worth noting that the polls were more wrong in 1992 and yet I'm pretty sure there wasn't such a massive inquiry then.

What were the findings/excuses in inquiry?

As for other great failures of the British polling industry, there's 1970 as well (interesting that they in these cases always seem to underestimate the Tory share of the vote vis-a-vis Labour).

"We polled too much Labour voters and not enough Conservative voters", in short.

[MaxQue]

The inquiry into the polling cock-up was, unsurprisingly, a complete waste of time. Also worth noting that the polls were more wrong in 1992 and yet I'm pretty sure there wasn't such a massive inquiry then.

What were the findings/excuses in inquiry?

As for other great failures of the British polling industry, there's 1970 as well (interesting that they in these cases always seem to underestimate the Tory share of the vote vis-a-vis Labour).

"We polled too much Labour voters and not enough Conservative voters", in short.

lol, the British polling industry is such a joke. In 2020, we might as well use the astrology pages to predict the result.

The MP for Bosworth will be delighted.

[MaxQue]

then a likely June EU referendum.

That would be a violation of Electoral Commission advice, which is asking the date being announced 6 months in advance.

[MaxQue]

The MP for Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, Harry Harpham (Labour) has sadly died of cancer today. He was a councillor in Sheffield since 2004 and MP since 2015.

A coal miner which had to change paths after the 1985 strikes.

[MaxQue]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/73724/jeremy-corbyn-overstated-income-his-tax-return

I love how Corbyn made half a grand last year taking surveys.

If you look MPs interest declarations, a lot are paid to answer polls (once or twice a month), and they are usually paid 30 to 50£ per poll.

[MaxQue]

Mark Reckless is Welsh now?

Got elected to Welsh Assembly for UKIP.

[MaxQue]

FWIW, if I we're British, I'd be glad that the Freedom Party and Britain First still exist (as well as the rump BNP) so the neo-Nazis don't try and hijack UKIP.

They couldn't, UKIP applies a very strict ban on anybody which has ever been a member of a far-right party (and are not shy of expulsing people from the party).

[MaxQue]

Gerald Kaufman, Father of the House and MP since 1970 (Labour) sadly died.

[MaxQue]

Martin McGuinness, former Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland and former SF leader, died.