Mississippi/Alabama

[MaC]

will these two states ever vote for separate candidates?  The was one instance in the 1840s, but that was a long long time ago. 

[Erc]

Very nearly happened in 1976...

But, barring a ridiculous landslide, a drastic realignment, or some strange third party candidacy, it ain't happening anytime soon.

[Vasall des Midas]

Happened in 1960...well, sort of.

[True Democrat]

Happened in 1960...well, sort of.

The people voted for the different candidates, but the electors mostly voted for the same candidates.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I doubt this will ever happen again. However, if the black turnout varied between the states, it's possible.

[patrick1]

It could happen.  Mississippi is only 61% or so white while Bama is 71%- pretty big difference.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

[Sam Spade]

Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

Because he's jfern.

[patrick1]

Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

Because he's jfern.

Demographic trends give jfern some credence on this one.

[Sam Spade]

Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

Because he's jfern.

Demographic trends give jfern some credence on this one.

Projecting 30 years into the future in politics based on demographic trends is nearly impossible, imo. 

[patrick1]

Very true but it is not that implausible. There are going to be a lot less white people around in 35 years and I don't see that many blacks becoming Republican- who knows though.  I'm sure many people foresaw the solid south switching their loyalties either,.

[Beet]

The problem with MS is it doesn't follow national demographic trends. 30 years ago blacks were an even bigger percentage of the state population that they are now. Both blacks and whites are fleeing the state like bees from a shaken hive.

[Vasall des Midas]

Black percentage in Mississippi has been falling for decades if I'm not mistaken.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry won the 18-29 group in MS 63-37.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297171/

[phk]

Mississippi could trend Democrat if these trends hold up, but will they? Probably not.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

DeSoto county is getting a significant influx of conservative voters from Memphis... though I expect those to be eventually be followed by blacks.

[jokerman]

The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.

[Akno21]

The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?

[jokerman]

The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?

If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5.  It would be close.  Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3.  When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

[Sam Spade]

You've also got to make a big difference between rural areas and suburbs.

The Birmingham suburbs are very different than, say, rural Mississippi.

[Sibboleth]

You've also got to make a big difference between rural areas and suburbs.

Very, very true. A good measure of an areas politics is the sort of people it elects to the State Legislature... and there's a huge difference between the sort of people the rural South likes to elect and the sort the sunbelty suburbs like to elect

[A18]

The South is not populist. It is conservative.

[Akno21]

The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?

If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5.  It would be close.  Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3.  When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

West Virginia certainly, but would you really win if you went to Kentucky and promised bigger government?

[jokerman]

The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?

If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5.  It would be close.  Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3.  When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

West Virginia certainly, but would you really win if you went to Kentucky and promised bigger government?

Economic Populism isn't nessicarily bigger government.