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| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King)
| | |-+  Mississippi/Alabama
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Author Topic: Mississippi/Alabama  (Read 4848 times)
MaC
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« on: May 01, 2005, 10:22:13 pm »
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will these two states ever vote for separate candidates?  The was one instance in the 1840s, but that was a long long time ago. 
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2005, 10:54:27 pm »
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Very nearly happened in 1976...

But, barring a ridiculous landslide, a drastic realignment, or some strange third party candidacy, it ain't happening anytime soon.
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2005, 05:49:50 am »
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Happened in 1960...well, sort of.
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2005, 05:56:47 am »
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Happened in 1960...well, sort of.

The people voted for the different candidates, but the electors mostly voted for the same candidates.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2005, 05:22:15 pm »
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I doubt this will ever happen again. However, if the black turnout varied between the states, it's possible.
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2005, 05:26:36 pm »
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It could happen.  Mississippi is only 61% or so white while Bama is 71%- pretty big difference.
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2005, 05:33:26 pm »
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Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2005, 05:37:05 pm »
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Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2005, 06:35:14 pm »
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Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

Because he's jfern.
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patrick1
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2005, 06:44:58 pm »
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Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

Because he's jfern.

Demographic trends give jfern some credence on this one.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2005, 06:47:10 pm »
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Mississippi will probably become a Democratic state around 2040.

Why do you say that?

Because he's jfern.

Demographic trends give jfern some credence on this one.

Projecting 30 years into the future in politics based on demographic trends is nearly impossible, imo.  Smiley
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patrick1
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2005, 06:55:54 pm »
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Very true but it is not that implausible. There are going to be a lot less white people around in 35 years and I don't see that many blacks becoming Republican- who knows though.  I'm sure many people foresaw the solid south switching their loyalties either,.
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Beet
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2005, 07:45:42 pm »
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The problem with MS is it doesn't follow national demographic trends. 30 years ago blacks were an even bigger percentage of the state population that they are now. Both blacks and whites are fleeing the state like bees from a shaken hive.
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2005, 08:33:10 am »
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Black percentage in Mississippi has been falling for decades if I'm not mistaken.
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2005, 01:29:01 pm »
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Kerry won the 18-29 group in MS 63-37.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297171/
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phk
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2005, 01:39:16 pm »
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Mississippi could trend Democrat if these trends hold up, but will they? Probably not.
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2005, 09:02:07 pm »
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DeSoto county is getting a significant influx of conservative voters from Memphis... though I expect those to be eventually be followed by blacks.
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jokerman
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2005, 09:07:34 pm »
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The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2005, 10:02:59 pm »
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The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party. They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals. A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?
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jokerman
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2005, 10:09:10 pm »
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The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party. They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals. A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?
If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5.  It would be close.  Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3.  When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2005, 10:12:22 pm »
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You've also got to make a big difference between rural areas and suburbs.

The Birmingham suburbs are very different than, say, rural Mississippi.
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Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2005, 05:26:13 am »
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You've also got to make a big difference between rural areas and suburbs.

Very, very true. A good measure of an areas politics is the sort of people it elects to the State Legislature... and there's a huge difference between the sort of people the rural South likes to elect and the sort the sunbelty suburbs like to elect
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2005, 08:52:50 am »
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The South is not populist. It is conservative.
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Akno21
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2005, 02:37:07 pm »
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The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party. They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals. A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?
If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5. It would be close. Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3. When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

West Virginia certainly, but would you really win if you went to Kentucky and promised bigger government?
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jokerman
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2005, 03:04:08 pm »
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The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party. They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals. A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?
If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5. It would be close. Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3. When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

West Virginia certainly, but would you really win if you went to Kentucky and promised bigger government?
Economic Populism isn't nessicarily bigger government. 
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