Mississippi/Alabama

[Akno21]

The South isn't going to swing in the current state of the Democratic Party.  They'll move away from us as fast as they add numbers to Democratic totals.  A populist candidate could easily change that.

I never thought of the south as being especially economically liberal. How economically liberal, if you were to assign a PC score, would you give the south as a whole?

If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5.  It would be close.  Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3.  When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

West Virginia certainly, but would you really win if you went to Kentucky and promised bigger government?

Economic Populism isn't nessicarily bigger government. 

Not neccessarily, but it doesn't take a spin master to make it seem like bigger government.

[Redefeatbush04]

I looked at those exit polls that Jfern posted and I find it fascinating. I have never seen a state so divided.

Black women voted 89-10 in favor of Kerry (79% margin!!!)
White women voted 89-10 in favor of Bush (79% margin!!!)

18-29 year olds voted 63-37 in favor of Kerry (26% margin!)
60+ year olds voted 69-30 in favor of Bush (39% margin!!!)

Income less than $15,000 voted 62-38 Kerry (24% margin!)
Income morethan $100,000 voted 86-13 Bush (73% margin)

Evangelicals voted 88-12 Bush (76% margin!!!)
Others voted 67-32 Kerry (35% margin!!!)

Those that decided:
during last month voted for Kerry 73-26 (47% margin!!!)
before that voted for Bush 65-35 (30% margin!!!)

[nclib]

As far as comparing Mississippi with Alabama goes, an interesting trend is that Alabama swung 10.7 points more Republican but Mississippi only swung 2.8 points more Republican.

[nclib]

I looked at those exit polls that Jfern posted and I find it fascinating. I have never seen a state so divided.

Black women voted 89-10 in favor of Kerry (79% margin!!!)
White women voted 89-10 in favor of Bush (79% margin!!!)

18-29 year olds voted 63-37 in favor of Kerry (26% margin!)
60+ year olds voted 69-30 in favor of Bush (39% margin!!!)

Income less than $15,000 voted 62-38 Kerry (24% margin!)
Income morethan $100,000 voted 86-13 Bush (73% margin)

Evangelicals voted 88-12 Bush (76% margin!!!)
Others voted 67-32 Kerry (35% margin!!!)

Those that decided:
during last month voted for Kerry 73-26 (47% margin!!!)
before that voted for Bush 65-35 (30% margin!!!)

Race plays a major role in these gaps.

[Sam Spade]

As far as comparing Mississippi with Alabama goes, an interesting trend is that Alabama swung 10.7 points more Republican but Mississippi only swung 2.8 points more Republican.

This was something I didn't understand as well.

After all in Jefferson County and Shelby County (ultra-GOP Birmingham suburbs), the gains were only about 6%.  However, the gains were about 20% in the exurbs of St. Clair County, Blount County and Cullman County of Birmingham proper.

I think by looking at the map, it appears like most of the Bush gains came in the rural white poor areas of Northern Alabama and the area surrounding the Black Belt in Southern Alabama.

The gains in the black belt correspond more to national numbers, gains of 3-4% or so.

[minionofmidas]

Alabama wasn't quite as racially polarized as Mississippi (really, why do they bother setting up voting booths for the Presidentials? They could just go by the Census results.) ... as yet. With the big Dem losses in the Tennessee Valley it's probably not far behind now anymore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry bombed in the Hill Country because the Evangelicals there thought he was too socially liberal etc.
Note that most of them were happy to split their tickets and vote for Democratic state legislatures and (in one case) House.

[Frodo]

how long do you all think it will take before the state legislatures in Alabama and Mississippi turn Republican like much of the rest of the South? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When the states suburbanise enough I guess

[M]

So the youth statistic means that the majority of the young people are black? If so, what's the story there?

[minionofmidas]

I have serious doubts about that youth stat, and the elderly stat as well. If they're true, every Black Republican in the state is over 60 and two out of three White MS Dems is under 30. Actually, the latter is imaginable, at a stretch.

[7,052,770]

Well Howard Dean told me that Mississippi would be a Democratic state soon.
But blacks have such a low turnout rate...if they would vote, plus all the young people, a nonliberal Southerner could make a run here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you made the south the confederacy+ Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia, I'd say -.5.  It would be close.  Yet, I'd say the social score would be about +3.  When I say populist, I don't mean nessicarily just economically left, socially right, yet anti-elistist, pro-family values, and common-sense.

Blah blah blah, they hate those hypothetical "liberal elite latte liberals" who are designed to distract them from the curropt right-wingers who control this country and are ing over the poor.  What a bunch of morons.

[Akno21]

Well Howard Dean told me that Mississippi would be a Democratic state soon.

Thanks to the "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks" vote

[Akno21]

Well Howard Dean told me that Mississippi would be a Democratic state soon.

Thanks to the "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks" vote

I'm glad we have a... er, optimistic chairman for our party.  But I'm not sure how the hell Dean knows anything about "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks," aside from pro gun-rights, maybe.

Being pro-gun rights might have a large overall impactin preventing the Dems from being the "sissy party".

[Beet]

Well Howard Dean told me that Mississippi would be a Democratic state soon.

Thanks to the "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks" vote

I'm glad we have a... er, optimistic chairman for our party.  But I'm not sure how the hell Dean knows anything about "guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks," aside from pro gun-rights, maybe.

Being pro-gun rights might have a large overall impactin preventing the Dems from being the "sissy party".

I find this whole notoin of "sissiness" to be stupid. Its only for guys who are insecure in their masculinity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ay that be true. Tha real problem is allthem nesh buggers

[A18]

I find this whole notoin of "sissiness" to be stupid. Its only for guys who are insecure in their masculinity.

Sissy. Why don't you go paint your nails and talk about how secure you are in your masculinity with your friends.

[MissCatholic]

i paint my nails....do you have a problem with that also?

[jokerman]

i paint my nails....do you have a problem with that also?

But you're female....I think.

[AuH2O]

MS going Dem? LOL

Blacks are falling as a portion of the population, not to mention voting population. They really aren't every going to be more important politically. And young blacks are drastically less likely to be Democrats than their parents.

The DNC should just quit in places like MS and AL. Let the state Democratic Party be its own entity and decide on its own who to nominate for the Electoral Votes.

[Frodo]

When the states suburbanise enough I guess

k, follow up:

if those Democratic legislators who currently compose the majority in both the Alabama and Mississippi state legislatures were to retire, who would likely to replace them -on average?  Republicans, or other Democrats?  just how much of this current majority they currently hold in both states' legislatures is really based on incumbency and seniority?  and are they a dying breed of southern Democrats? 

[Democratic Hawk]

Are Dixiecrats still alive and well in the Mississippi and Alabama state legislatures?

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are Dixiecrats still alive and well in the Mississippi and Alabama state legislatures?

Dave

Oh yes. Very much so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

if those Democratic legislators who currently compose the majority in both the Alabama and Mississippi state legislatures were to retire, who would likely to replace them -on average?  Republicans, or other Democrats?

Depends on the district in question. Certainly most Hill Country districts aren't going to flip, even with a retiring incumbent. The ones that will, are the ones that were rural when the current incumbent was elected and have steadily suburbanised. Rural districts in the southern parts of each state might as well.

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Less than the Republicans would like to think; note that the AL Democrats made a net *gain* in the State House last November, and the MS Dems (or it may have been the AL Dems again) won a special election for a State Senate (or was it State House?) seat a few months back.

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In some cases yes, but generally... no.