UK Liberal Democrat leadership election, 2015

[YL]

Caused by the resignation of Nick Clegg...

The rules say the leader has to be an MP.  So, barring Clegg, there are only 7 possible candidates:

Tom Brake (Carshalton & Wallington)
Alistair Carmichael (Orkney & Shetland)
Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale)
Norman Lamb (North Norfolk)
Greg Mulholland (Leeds North West)
John Pugh (Southport)
Mark Williams (Ceredigion)

It seems very likely to be Farron vs. Lamb.  Farron is generally seen as being more on the left of the party, Lamb on the right.  Some Lib Dems are a bit suspicious of Farron because of his religious views.

Nominations close on 3 June and the result will be announced on 16 July.

[ChrisDR68]

What religious views?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's a capital E Evangelical.

[Clyde1998]

Most likely Farron will win it.

[Donerail]

Brake's with Lamb, Williams with Farron, along with the endorsement of the Welsh & Scottish Lib Dem leaders. Pugh and Mulholland are believed to be backing Farron as well.

[Phony Moderate]

Norman would be nothing more than a sacrificial Lamb.

[ChrisDR68]

Norman would be nothing more than a sacrificial Lamb.

Plus Brake's with Lamb, Williams with Farron... is this the pun thread?

[Gary J]

The most important argument for Tim Farron is that he would have some chance of attracting attention, whereas Norman Lamb is the sort of competent person who is invaluable in government but who will not make an impact in opposition.

Tim Farron also has the advantages of not having served in the coalition government and having voted against the tuition fees. He is best placed of all the surviving Lib Dem MPs to begin to rebuild the brand. It will not be easy.

[Sozialliberal]

Hmm, Tim Farron reminds me a bit of Jimmy Carter. They're both folksy, religious, and social liberals in the European sense of the word ("modern liberals" or simply "liberals" as they would say in the US).

[ChrisDR68]

The most important argument for Tim Farron is that he would have some chance of attracting attention, whereas Norman Lamb is the sort of competent person who is invaluable in government but who will not make an impact in opposition.

Tim Farron also has the advantages of not having served in the coalition government and having voted against the tuition fees. He is best placed of all the surviving Lib Dem MPs to begin to rebuild the brand. It will not be easy.

That's probably the two crucial things.

He'll go some way to giving them a fresh start.

[Holmes]

What kind of self-defeating rule is it that requires the leader to be a sitting MP upon election? Did the people who proposed that rule not want to ever get back in power if the party were ever decimated in an election?

[Vega]

What kind of self-defeating rule is it that requires the leader to be a sitting MP upon election? Did the people who proposed that rule not want to ever get back in power if the party were ever decimated in an election?

I think, given the point of the Liberal Democrats, they never considered returning to the old Liberal numbers of ~10 seats.

Also, the Lib Dems are the most constitutional party. Or, where that way 10 years ago.

[ChrisDR68]

Whoever leads the Lib Dems into the next general election these are the seats where they are the nearest challengers to the incumbent. Such was the scale of their vote collapse there are only 18 seats where they are within 5000 votes:

  1. Cambridge - 599 (Labour)
  2. Eastbourne - 733 (Conservative)
  3. Lewes - 1,083 (Conservative)
  4. Thornbury and Yate - 1,495 (Conservative)
  5. Twickenham - 2,017 (Conservative)
  6. East Dumbartonshire - 2,167 (SNP)
  7. St. Ives - 2,469 (Conservative)
  8. Kingston and Surbiton - 2,834 (Conservative)
  9. Edinburgh West - 3,210 (SNP)
10. Burnley - 3,244 (Labour)
11. Torbay - 3,286 (Conservative)
12. Bath - 3,833 (Conservative)
13. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - 3,844 (SNP)
14. Sutton and Cheam - 3,921 (Conservative)
15. North East Fife - 4,344 (SNP)
16. Bermondsey and Old Southwark - 4,489 (Labour)
17. Berwick-upon-Tweed - 4,914 (Conservative) 
18. Cardiff Central - 4,981 (Labour)

[YL]

Whoever leads the Lib Dems into the next general election these are the seats where they are the nearest challengers to the incumbent. Such was the scale of their vote collapse there are only 18 seats where they are within 5000 votes:

  1. Cambridge - 599 (Labour)
  2. Eastbourne - 733 (Conservative)
  3. Lewes - 1,083 (Conservative)
  4. Thornbury and Yate - 1,495 (Conservative)
  5. Twickenham - 2,017 (Conservative)
  6. East Dumbartonshire - 2,167 (SNP)
  7. St. Ives - 2,469 (Conservative)
  8. Kingston and Surbiton - 2,834 (Conservative)
  9. Edinburgh West - 3,210 (SNP)
10. Burnley - 3,244 (Labour)
11. Torbay - 3,286 (Conservative)
12. Bath - 3,833 (Conservative)
13. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - 3,844 (SNP)
14. Sutton and Cheam - 3,921 (Conservative)
15. North East Fife - 4,344 (SNP)
16. Bermondsey and Old Southwark - 4,489 (Labour)
17. Berwick-upon-Tweed - 4,914 (Conservative) 
18. Cardiff Central - 4,981 (Labour)

Two things to be borne in mind, neither of which are terribly helpful for them:
- Several of those were clearly only as close as they were because of personal voting for incumbents.  If the incumbents don't stand again, and possibly even if they do, they'll be harder to regain than the majorities suggest.  There's no way a generic Lib Dem would have got within 599 votes of Labour in Cambridge.
- There will be boundary changes.  The rules for them are not certain yet, but depending on those rules some of their better seats may be broken up or have unhelpful areas added.  This applies to their held seats too: watch out for what happens to Ceredigion and Leeds NW.

[Gustaf]

How much clout does the Scotland and Wales branches have? They make up a quarter of the MPs but only about a tenth of the national vote for the party.

[Hnv1]

If they elect Farron and Labour elect (what will probably be) a more centre figure what will the point in voting LD. If they elect the other bloke to the right what will be the point in voting LD when he's in that far from a tory. So in general, what's the point in voting LD? as was shown Britain does not really need a centre party.

Btw what makes Orkney and Shetland so Liberal? only 20 years out of Liberal hands in the last 180

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By this point it's mostly a matter of personal votes and inherited personal votes (as the party label becomes associated with good constituency work), as can happen in seriously rural areas (the long Liberal domination of Montgomery was similar).

[Helsinkian]

Telegraph is reporting that Tim Farron wants to change the party's name to "the Liberals".

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Telegraph is reporting that Tim Farron wants to change the party's name to "the Liberals".

I wonder how the continuing Liberal party (not to mention people like Shirley Williams) would feel about that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Theoretically not a bad idea (the 'LibDem' label is clearly tainted), but there is the small matter of the continuity Liberal Party.

[Phony Moderate]

Telegraph is reporting that Tim Farron wants to change the party's name to "the Liberals".

I wonder how the continuing Liberal party (not to mention people like Shirley Williams) would feel about that?

Mysterious as to why Williams and her like didn't rejoin Labour in the 1990s tbh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of former SDP MPs did actually (some even rejoined in the late 80s). I think for those who stayed it was a case of too many bridges having been broken.

[ChrisDR68]

Telegraph is reporting that Tim Farron wants to change the party's name to "the Liberals".

Simon Hughes agreed with this idea on Newsnight tonight. If it happens I'm presuming the already existing Liberal Party would be merged into it.

I'd personally not be in favour of this change myself. I think the ceiling (in terms of seats and local government representation) for a party that was just called the Liberal Party is lower than for a party called the Liberal Democrats in UK politics.

Liberal Democrats just sounds like a bigger tent party to me to use the jargon

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The label is, however, contaminated now.

[CatoMinor]

Considering part of their (former) base of voters were university students, changing their name might actually work and fool them.