Cypriot legislative election, 2016

I did a quick write up of the parties and what's at stake for y'all:

Cyprus has an extremely stable party system historically, with both the main left-wing and right-wing parties, AKEL and DISY respectively, usually polling within a narrow band of support far (usually around 30-35%, with DISY a little higher than AKEL -- both far from a majority) and trading turns in power with the shifting support of the countries various minor parties, most of whom are situated in between the two main parties. There is a broad political consensus in the country, with neither party ever promising anything really radical, and the two parties are even further moderated by the various minor parties while in power. While both AKEL and DISY have party partisans who would fervently claim the parties are as far apart as the sun and moon, and the parties would indeed never work together, the reality is that not much changes when the parties alternate power.

AKEL took office in coalition with various minor parties after the election, but DISY is currently in power. Failure to revive the economy and austerity decreased AKEL's popularity. While DISY didn't make any big promises to change anything and broadly supported continuing austerity, AKEL's image in general degraded with their voters who begin to see them as disconnected from the concerns of every day people. This general feeling of dissatisfaction led to the DISY candidate firmly defeating the AKEL candidate by a 57-43% margin in a runoff (this is a large margin for Cyprus presidential elections -- the runoffs are typically very close, near 50-50 usually.)

AKEL made the politically smart decision to run from power right as things were starting to get really ugly for them in the polls. Using the presidential election as an excuse to claim they lost their mandate, they exited office and threw the hot potato (or more accurately, hot potatoes) to DISY who grabbed them like idiots. AKEL entered opposition where they were able to focus on reconnecting with their voters and have staked out a moderately anti-austerity position, albeit with a lot of nuances. This has been somewhat successful, and has prevented the party from collapsing. They're back up a bit from their low (which was close to 20% when they dashed out of office) and are now back up to around 25-30% in the polls, which is low for them, possibly even a historic low (again, Cyprus has an extremely stable party system -- AKEL has polled between 27-35% in every election, with Cyprus democratic history dating back to 1960) but is far from disastrous.

When DISY took the relay and entered office after the Presidential election they were polling at quite a high level (in the high 30s, which is very high in the context of Cyprus' very stable party system.) Since entering office however the shine has worn off. Due to the way Cyprus' party system works, they were forced to work with the same bland minor parties as always and were unable to make any real changes to policy or the method of conducting government (not that the party had promised to make any.)

Things broadly continued the same as the AKEL years. The economy has seen little improvement. Austerity continued as well, and the government is still seen as slow to respond to things and generally listless. This has continued to manufacture dissatisfaction in Cyprus' normally extremely stable party system and DISY's poll numbers began to decline some as well. They've now came down from their high and are polling around 32%, which would be pretty much near the center of the band of support they've historically polled within.

This shows that even in this situation, where a decent amount of stress has been applied, Cyprus party system clearly remains in tact and the result should not be too far off from historic results. DISY should poll a very stable and average result while AKEL, who is more blamed for the economic situation, will poll near the lower edge of their band but the party system will survive and go on.

Among the minor parties, DIKO and EDEK (the two premier moderate parties who help AKEL and DIKO rotate in power and prevent anything radical from being passed) are also polling a bit down from their 2011 results but also will survive and continue to perform their historic rolls.

Their will, however, be a bit of change in the parliament anyways although it won't change much. SYPOL, an AKEL breakaway, is winning over most of the voters they've lost since 2011. They're a bit more populist and take a bit of a harder line against austerity. KA, meanwhile, is basically the equivalent for dissatisfied DISY voters. Both are polling around 6% and are basically guaranteed representation. Both sound a bit harder notes than the main parties they split away from but neither are too radical.

KOP, a small green party, has grown a little bit (like the other parties they've so far had a stable electorate, but it was barely 2% of the vote and barely has got them representation.) Now they poll around 5% and are a bit safer. They're also not really radical, being a fairly centrist green party, but are not really part of the historical party system and win votes from young people mainly. Their small growth comes from dissatisfaction with the main parties more than anything they've done.

A violent fascist gang, ELAM, which exists on the fringes of Cyprus' otherwise stable and civilized society has grown a little due to the dissatisfaction with the economy and lack of mainstream options to express that dissatisfaction, given the aforementioned broad political consensus in the country. They have polled between 2-3%, which given Cyprus' very low threshold will be enough to get them representation if their voters actually show up and go through with voting for them. Sad, but at least they remain very small unlike in a lot of other countries.

DISY should continue in power after the election. Their result will be well within their historical band of support and will not cause any worry yet at DISY headquarters, despite the fact they've decline in popularity some. AKEL does not want to be in power yet anyways, not with such low support. They want to focus on reconnecting with their voters and building a coherent plan for when they reenter government (AKEL still has a lot of internal disagreement as to how much they actually oppose austerity, and lack a clear plan of what they want to do when they get back in power.)

Hope you enjoyed this write up! Happy election watching everyone!

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