National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have such an obvious house effect for UKIP at present (which has emerged quite randomly over the past six months? Bizarre) that it would be nice to see what other companies made of things, except probably it wouldn't as pretty much all Welsh polling since there has been such a thing has been terrible.

Agreed. I would take it as an indication of direction though, although I would completely ignore the party list figures - as a sizeable minority think the poll is asking for a second preference.

[YL]

OMG UKIP have actually selected Neil Hamilton at the top of their list for Mid and West Wales.

They've also selected Mark Reckless in South Wales East.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35744070

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not been keeping up to date with the polls really, because they've mostly been saying the same thing and I've had other priorities (sorry ).

Labour 35, Plaid 21, Con 19, UKIP 17, LDem 6, Others 3

A very poor poll for the Tories: I suspect recent headlines regarding the steel industry have been less than entirely helpful. Estimating UKIP for this election is clearly a total crapshot of course.

<sub>The regional list poll is utterly pointless because a lot of people think they're just being asked for their second preference, but fwiw it is:

Labour 31, Con 20, Plaid 20, UKIP 16, LDem 5, Greens 4, Others 3</sub>

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Holy Christ, Plaid's manifesto is 193 pages long :0

I assume that must mean they've burried some cracking stuff in there that activists really wanted but would be laughed at by the media in general.

[Clyde1998]

Holy Christ, Plaid's manifesto is 193 pages long :0

I assume that must mean they've burried some cracking stuff in there that activists really wanted but would be laughed at by the media in general.

It's only 96 pages  - unless you want to read it in English and Welsh. Every other major party has split their manifesto into English and Welsh sections - where as Plaid's is Welsh one pages, then English the next, then Welsh, etc.

Labour - 24 pages
Greens - 25 pages
Conservatives - 30 pages
UKIP - 48 pages
Plaid - 96 pages
Lib Dems - 104 pages

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (19-22 Apr)
Lab 33/29 (-2/-2 on 7-11 Apr poll)
PC 21/22 (NC/+2)
Con 19/19 (NC/-1)
UKIP 15/15 (-2/-1)
Lib 8/8 (+2/+3)
Grn -/4 (-/NC)

My seat projection puts seats at:
Lab 22 (-8)
PC 15 (+4)
Con 11 (-3)
UKIP 8 (+8)
Lib 4 (-1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pretty clear by this point that all movement in the polls for about a year has been statistical noise one way or the other and that, probably, we're better off ignoring them as individual efforts.

[Clyde1998]

Pretty clear by this point that all movement in the polls for about a year has been statistical noise one way or the other and that, probably, we're better off ignoring them as individual efforts.

The problem is that we've only got YouGov polling in Wales. Unlike Scotland, we can't have an average of different pollster to bring us closer to the actual position.

You're right to mention not giving much attention to single polls. YouGov were quite a bit out last time, as well (constituency below):

Labour - 5% overestimated
Conservatives - 5% underestimated
Plaid - 2% underestimated
Lib Dem - 1% underestimated
Others - 3% overestimated

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you think that's bad check out Welsh polls from previous years (a lot aren't online, admittedly). 2003 was supposed to be a comparatively tight race...

[afleitch]

Yet Welsh polling was the most accurate in 2015 more so than in GB (obviously) or than in Scotland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stopped clocks, etc.

[Diouf]

Final pre-election poll from YouGov

Constituency vote:
Labour: 33%
Conservatives: 21%
Plaid Cymru: 19%
UKIP: 16%
Liberal Democrats: 8%
Others: 4%

Regional list vote
Labour: 31%
Plaid Cymru: 20%
Conservatives: 20
UKIP: 16%
Liberal Democrats: 6%
Greens: 4%
Others: 4%

Predicted seat distribution
Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Conservatives: 11 seats (7 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)


http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/05/04/the-final-pre-election-poll-in-wales/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what turnout will be? This has been a very, very dull campaign.

[Clyde1998]

ITV Wales Exit Poll:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah that sounds about as expected. UKIP winning list seats really fycks over the LibDems, btw.

[Clyde1998]

Yeah that sounds about as expected. UKIP winning list seats really fycks over the LibDems, btw.

It does - as there are only four list seats in each region.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most rumours have been less than well sourced, but it doesn't sound good in Cardiff North.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But anyway I'm expecting a pretty poor set of results in general.

[Cassius]

Most rumours have been less than well sourced, but it doesn't sound good in Cardiff North.

Worth bearing in mind that, should said rumours be correct, that in turn may not be good for Andrew RT Davies, especially if things also go well for the Tories in the Vale (which would be likely if things did work out in their favour in Cardiff North), given how the electoral system works.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours from that seat sound better, but others suggest embarrassingly bad performances in some usually safe seats. But who knows with rumours.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours from that seat sound better, but others suggest embarrassingly bad performances in some usually safe seats.

Alun Davies literally nearly losing Blaenau Gwent (a billion local scandals -waste disposal issues included because South Wales - some of which involved him) being an example. This is kind of like 1999: clear Labour win, but unenthusiastic and weird and local factors deciding a lot of votes and causing bizarro patterns.

[joevsimp]

BG is a place though that People's Voice meant that a lot of people have broken the habit of voting labour already

Plaid leader Leanne Wood across the line at a canter in Rhondda. it will be very interesting to see where the  regional seats end up, thats a Plaid seat that they won't need on the list now in the SW region, could help Ukip or reprieve the LibDems

[YL]

With one seat (Cardiff West) left to declare, the only constituency to have changed hands is Rhondda.

Labour held Cardiff North reasonably comfortably: their vote was down, but the Tories' vote was down by more.  Vale of Glamorgan was close, but Labour narrowly held it.