National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016
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Harry Hayfield
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« on: May 12, 2015, 11:26:03 AM »

Seeing as Scotland already has a thread let's not forget Wales.

Result of Assembly Elections 2011
Labour 42% constituencies, 37% regional list winning 28 constituencies and 2 regionals
Conservatives 25% constituencies, 23% regional list winning 6 constituencies and 8 regionals
Plaid Cymru 19% constituencies, 18% regional list winning 5 constituencies and 6 regionals
Liberal Democrats 11% constituencies, 8% regional list winning 1 constituency and 4 regionals
No other party won AM's
United Kingdom Independence Party 5% regional list
Green Party 3% regional list
Socialist Labour 2% regional list
British National Party 2% regional list
Other Parties 3% constituencies, 2% regional list

There has been polling conducted by ITV by YouGov, however it is nothing like as regular as that in Scotland. The last poll was published on March 9th and suggested:

Constituency Vote: Labour 37% (-5%) Conservatives 22% (-3%) Plaid Cymru 20% (+1%) United Kingdom Independence Party 11% (no constituency candidates in 2011) Liberal Democrats 6% (-5%) Other Parties 5% (+3%)

Regional List Vote: Labour 33% (-4%) Conservatives 22% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 21% (+3%) United Kingdom Independence Party 12% (+7%) Green Party 5% (-1%)Liberal Democrats 5% (-3%) Other Parties 2% (-5%)

A forecast produced by Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre suggests that Labour would win 28 seats (26 and 2), Conservatives 14 (6 and Cool, Plaid Cymru 11 (6 and 5), UKIP 5 (all regional list) and the Lib Dems 2 (2 and 0) which would mean that Labour would be three short of a majority and that either a Lab led coalition, rainbow coalition or Lab minority administration would the result.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2015, 11:29:28 AM »

Far too early to predict what will happen, except that there will be another Labour administration.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2015, 11:35:05 AM »

That poll showed a marked improved for Plaid, who had been hovering in the early teens for a few months. woodmania?

Carwyn will be reelected.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2015, 01:22:05 PM »

I hope UKIP don't get any seats, but it looks inevitable.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2015, 01:46:36 PM »

I hope UKIP don't get any seats, but it looks inevitable.

If they can maintain their position as a political force then they will obviously win some list seats. Of course if they don't...
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freefair
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2015, 08:58:29 PM »

Far too early to predict what will happen, except that there will be another Labour administration.
Given how the Tory number of consintuency seats increased by 3, 2 at the expense of Labour. one would like to think this is the year that the party could be thrown out of office by a coalition of Tories, LibDems, and perhaps even UKIP, given their decent vote share. Although a coalition with a moderate Plaid would be workable. Leanne Wood would probably have to resign though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2015, 11:15:42 AM »

Given how the Tory number of consintuency seats increased by 3, 2 at the expense of Labour. one would like to think this is the year that the party could be thrown out of office by a coalition of Tories, LibDems, and perhaps even UKIP, given their decent vote share. Although a coalition with a moderate Plaid would be workable. Leanne Wood would probably have to resign though.

I think that's wishful thinking. Labour won 25 seats in Wales on Thursday and would presumably (I've not worked the figures out) have won two list seats in Mid and West Wales were it an Assembly election; this takes Labour to 27 out of 60. Even assuming that Labour don't do better than that next year (which given midterm dynamics is unlikely), the numbers would not be there for an alternative administration.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2015, 02:23:45 PM »

It just so happens I have done a calculation of the Assembly (on the proviso of a 100% transfer from constituency to regional list, which has never happened):

Wales North Constituencies: Labour 5, Conservatives 3, Plaid Cymru 1
Wales North Regional List Votes: Labour 107,722, Conservatives 100,103, UKIP 44,392, Plaid 42,637 (No other parties qualify)
Wales North Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Mid and West Wales Constituencies: Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1
Mid and West Wales Regional List Votes: Conservatives 90,209, Labour 63,798, Plaid 56,382, Liberal Democrats 39,219, UKIP 33,649 (No other parties qualify)
Mid and West Wales Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Lab win the second seat, Lib Dem win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South West Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 1
Wales South West Regional List Votes: Labour 113,582, Conservatives 56,685, UKIP 37,692, Plaid 25,540 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South West Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, Plaid win the third seat, UKIP win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South Central Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 2
Wales South Central Regional List Votes: Labour 135,592, Conservatives 86,878, UKIP 37,346, Plaid 34,629, Lib Dem 24,338 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South Central Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Plaid win the second seat, Con win the third seat, Lib Dem win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Plaid 1, Con 1, Lib Dem 1)

Wales South East Constituencies: Labour 7, Conservatives 1
Wales South East Regional List Votes: Labour 131,779, Conservatives 73,938, UKIP 51,251, Plaid 22,516 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South East Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Constituencies Won: Labour 25, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 3, Liberal Democrats 1
Regional List Members Elected: Labour 1, Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 5, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 8
Total Assembly Members: Labour 26, Conservatives 15, Plaid Cymru 8, UKIP 8, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour short of a majority by 5)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2015, 04:05:59 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2015, 11:20:19 AM by only back for the worldcup »

Given how the Tory number of consintuency seats increased by 3, 2 at the expense of Labour. one would like to think this is the year that the party could be thrown out of office by a coalition of Tories, LibDems, and perhaps even UKIP, given their decent vote share. Although a coalition with a moderate Plaid would be workable. Leanne Wood would probably have to resign though.

I think that's wishful thinking. Labour won 25 seats in Wales on Thursday and would presumably (I've not worked the figures out) have won two list seats in Mid and West Wales were it an Assembly election; this takes Labour to 27 out of 60.
I have.

Obviously it's inaccurate to assume Assembly list vote mirrors constituency Westminster vote (Plaid and tiny others would no doubt do better) if this had been an Assembly election and everyone had won the same direct seats the results would be

SE Lab 7+0, Con 1+2, UKIP 0+2
SC Lab 6+0, Con 2+1, UKIP 0+1, PC 0+1, LD 0+1
SW Lab 6+0, Con 1+2, PC 0+1, LD UKIP 0+1
M&W Con 4+0, Lab 1+2, PC 2+0, LD 1+1, UKIP 0+1
N Lab 5+0, C 3+1, UKIP 0+2, PC 1+1
sum Lab 25+2, Con 11+6, UKIP 0+7, PC 3+3, LD 1+2

It would take all four other parties cooperating to dislodge Labour. Exceedingly unlikely.

EDIT for interesting error.
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Zanas
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2015, 09:16:56 AM »

I guess Plaid Cymru is willing to abstain or support Labour on a number of things, right ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2015, 07:42:36 AM »

YouGov have a poll out: Labour 39, Con 23, Plaid 18, UKIP 13, LDem 6, Greens 2. Regional list figures (which are always dodgy) are Labour 34, Con 24, Plaid 18, UKIP 14, LDem 5, Greens 4.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2015, 10:15:13 AM »

YouGov have a poll out: Labour 39, Con 23, Plaid 18, UKIP 13, LDem 6, Greens 2. Regional list figures (which are always dodgy) are Labour 34, Con 24, Plaid 18, UKIP 14, LDem 5, Greens 4.
They may be dodgy as people, being polled, interpret it as their second preference vote - rather than their regional vote.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2015, 02:34:57 PM »

Huw Irranca-Davies has been selected as the Labour candidate for Ogmore. He currently represents the same constituency at Westminster.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2015, 06:57:42 PM »

Huw Irranca-Davies has been selected as the Labour candidate for Ogmore. He currently represents the same constituency at Westminster.

Double-Jobbing is forbidden, yes?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2015, 07:08:49 PM »

Huw Irranca-Davies has been selected as the Labour candidate for Ogmore. He currently represents the same constituency at Westminster.

Double-Jobbing is forbidden, yes?

Heavily frowned on rather than illegal, but he'll almost certainly be resigning his seat in the Commons and quite possibly before he's elected to the Assembly.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2015, 07:13:31 PM »

Huw Irranca-Davies has been selected as the Labour candidate for Ogmore. He currently represents the same constituency at Westminster.

Double-Jobbing is forbidden, yes?

Heavily frowned on rather than illegal, but he'll almost certainly be resigning his seat in the Commons and quite possibly before he's elected to the Assembly.

So what you are saying is that next year we can look forward to all the 'election experts' predicting that UKIP are going to win Ogmore in a by-election?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2015, 07:25:58 PM »

So what you are saying is that next year we can look forward to all the 'election experts' predicting that UKIP are going to win Ogmore in a by-election?

Alas yes...
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2015, 12:52:11 PM »

Huw Irranca-Davies has been selected as the Labour candidate for Ogmore. He currently represents the same constituency at Westminster.

Double-Jobbing is forbidden, yes?
The Wales Act 2014 prevents it from happening after the 2016 election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2016, 10:57:14 AM »

*Blows away the dust*

There was another YouGov poll released in early December for what very little that is worth: showed the same basic result as the poll before the previous one. Labour 35, Con 23, Plaid 20, UKIP 15, LDem 5/List Labour 34, Con 23, Plaid 18, UKIP 16, Greens 4, LDem 4

Much more relevant is that the next Assembly and the next Government will look very different to the current one, no matter what the electorate decides. The following Labour AMs are retiring:

Rosemary Butler, Newport West (e. 1999)
Christine Chapman, Cynon Valley (e. 1999)
Jeff Cuthbert, Caerphilly (e. 2003)
Keith Davies, Llanelli (e. 2011)
Janice Gregory, Ogmore (e. 1999)
Edwina Hart, Gower (e. 1999)
Huw Lewis, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney (e. 1999)
Gwyn Price, Islwyn (e. 2011)
Gwenda Thomas, Neath (e. 1999)

You may notice a theme there. Lewis has only just announced his retirement: quite a seat to come up for selection so late in the day.

Meanwhile some of Plaid's veterans are also going:

Jocelyn Davies, List (e. 1999)
Alun Fred Jones, Arfon (e. 2003)
Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr (e. 1999)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2016, 03:21:04 PM »

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr will be very interesting indeed. In 1999 Rhodri polled 53%, 2003 48%, 2007 53% and 2011 45% and when the MP for the constituency stood down in 2010 Plaid's vote fell from 46% to just 36% (with most of that support going to the Conservatives (Plaid -10%, Lab -2%, Con +8%, Lib Dem +2%. UKIP +1%). If that happens in May you will have Plaid on 33%, Lab on 28%, Con on 28% and Lib Dem on 7% (making the seat a right three way marginal)
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2016, 09:39:50 AM »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35549828

infighting in the UKIP over a few parachuted candidates - including a few old friends.
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Cassius
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2016, 11:17:56 AM »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35549828

infighting in the UKIP over a few parachuted candidates - including a few old friends.

To be fair, Neil Hamilton is actually Welsh. Anyway, UKIP's constant infighting doesn't seem to have hurt it's poll numbers significantly thus far, so I doubt this will derail UKIP's assembly campaign in any significant way.
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YL
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2016, 04:14:43 AM »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35549828

infighting in the UKIP over a few parachuted candidates - including a few old friends.

To be fair, Neil Hamilton is actually Welsh. Anyway, UKIP's constant infighting doesn't seem to have hurt it's poll numbers significantly thus far, so I doubt this will derail UKIP's assembly campaign in any significant way.

The issue with Neil Hamilton is surely not his Welshness but the fact that he is Neil Hamilton.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2016, 03:29:24 PM »

YouGov have quietly released an opinion poll for this election:

Constituency
Lab 37% (±0)
Con 27% (±0)
UKIP 18% (+1)
Plaid 13% (+1)
Lib 4% (±0)
Oth 2% (-1)

List
Lab 34% (-1)
Con 22% (-1)
Plaid 19% (-1)
UKIP 18% (+3)
Lib 5% (±0)
Oth 2% (-1)

EU Referendum
Remain 37% (-3)
Leave 45% (+3)
WNV 3% (-2)
DK 16% (+2)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2016, 11:48:03 AM »

YouGov have such an obvious house effect for UKIP at present (which has emerged quite randomly over the past six months? Bizarre) that it would be nice to see what other companies made of things, except probably it wouldn't as pretty much all Welsh polling since there has been such a thing has been terrible.
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