National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016

[Clyde1998]

I hope UKIP don't get any seats, but it looks inevitable.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have a poll out: Labour 39, Con 23, Plaid 18, UKIP 13, LDem 6, Greens 2. Regional list figures (which are always dodgy) are Labour 34, Con 24, Plaid 18, UKIP 14, LDem 5, Greens 4.

They may be dodgy as people, being polled, interpret it as their second preference vote - rather than their regional vote.

[Clyde1998]

Huw Irranca-Davies has been selected as the Labour candidate for Ogmore. He currently represents the same constituency at Westminster.

Double-Jobbing is forbidden, yes?

The Wales Act 2014 prevents it from happening after the 2016 election.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have quietly released an opinion poll for this election:

Constituency
Lab 37% (±0)
Con 27% (±0)
UKIP 18% (+1)
Plaid 13% (+1)
Lib 4% (±0)
Oth 2% (-1)

List
Lab 34% (-1)
Con 22% (-1)
Plaid 19% (-1)
UKIP 18% (+3)
Lib 5% (±0)
Oth 2% (-1)

EU Referendum
Remain 37% (-3)
Leave 45% (+3)
WNV 3% (-2)
DK 16% (+2)

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have such an obvious house effect for UKIP at present (which has emerged quite randomly over the past six months? Bizarre) that it would be nice to see what other companies made of things, except probably it wouldn't as pretty much all Welsh polling since there has been such a thing has been terrible.

Agreed. I would take it as an indication of direction though, although I would completely ignore the party list figures - as a sizeable minority think the poll is asking for a second preference.

[Clyde1998]

Holy Christ, Plaid's manifesto is 193 pages long :0

I assume that must mean they've burried some cracking stuff in there that activists really wanted but would be laughed at by the media in general.

It's only 96 pages  - unless you want to read it in English and Welsh. Every other major party has split their manifesto into English and Welsh sections - where as Plaid's is Welsh one pages, then English the next, then Welsh, etc.

Labour - 24 pages
Greens - 25 pages
Conservatives - 30 pages
UKIP - 48 pages
Plaid - 96 pages
Lib Dems - 104 pages

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (19-22 Apr)
Lab 33/29 (-2/-2 on 7-11 Apr poll)
PC 21/22 (NC/+2)
Con 19/19 (NC/-1)
UKIP 15/15 (-2/-1)
Lib 8/8 (+2/+3)
Grn -/4 (-/NC)

My seat projection puts seats at:
Lab 22 (-8)
PC 15 (+4)
Con 11 (-3)
UKIP 8 (+8)
Lib 4 (-1)

[Clyde1998]

Pretty clear by this point that all movement in the polls for about a year has been statistical noise one way or the other and that, probably, we're better off ignoring them as individual efforts.

The problem is that we've only got YouGov polling in Wales. Unlike Scotland, we can't have an average of different pollster to bring us closer to the actual position.

You're right to mention not giving much attention to single polls. YouGov were quite a bit out last time, as well (constituency below):

Labour - 5% overestimated
Conservatives - 5% underestimated
Plaid - 2% underestimated
Lib Dem - 1% underestimated
Others - 3% overestimated

[Clyde1998]

ITV Wales Exit Poll:

[Clyde1998]

Yeah that sounds about as expected. UKIP winning list seats really fycks over the LibDems, btw.

It does - as there are only four list seats in each region.

[Clyde1998]

Scottish Tories polled higher percentages than their Welsh cousins on both constituency and list ballots.

It's an interesting observation - when was the last time that happened?

That being said however...

Right Wing (Mainstream) Parties
Scotland:
Con 22.0/22.9
UKIP 0.0/2.0
Total 22.0/24.9

Wales:
Con 21.1/18.8
UKIP 12.5/13.0
Total 33.6/31.8

[Clyde1998]

Bizarre brinkmanship on display to-day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36269820

The Conservatives and UKIP backed Wood

This is very interesting now - they have 28 days to elect someone, or there will be a second election. This may benefit of Plaid more than Labour, unless Labour change their leader in Wales, IMO.

[Clyde1998]

Looking through Twitter, a lot of people are suggesting that Plaid did a deal with the Tories and UKIP - it appears that they haven't done a deal. Leanne Wood was put forward as a nomination from Plaid (which they are perfectly entitled to do) and the Tories and UKIP voted for her.

It'll be very interesting to see how the media spin this.

[Clyde1998]

Tories and Kippers are both claiming that little chats were held before the vote...

Plaid are now saying that the chats they had with both parties was purely to tell them that they were going to nominate Wood for FM and was not about getting the to vote for her...