National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016

[Harry Hayfield]

Seeing as Scotland already has a thread let's not forget Wales.

Result of Assembly Elections 2011
Labour 42% constituencies, 37% regional list winning 28 constituencies and 2 regionals
Conservatives 25% constituencies, 23% regional list winning 6 constituencies and 8 regionals
Plaid Cymru 19% constituencies, 18% regional list winning 5 constituencies and 6 regionals
Liberal Democrats 11% constituencies, 8% regional list winning 1 constituency and 4 regionals
No other party won AM's
United Kingdom Independence Party 5% regional list
Green Party 3% regional list
Socialist Labour 2% regional list
British National Party 2% regional list
Other Parties 3% constituencies, 2% regional list

There has been polling conducted by ITV by YouGov, however it is nothing like as regular as that in Scotland. The last poll was published on March 9th and suggested:

Constituency Vote: Labour 37% (-5%) Conservatives 22% (-3%) Plaid Cymru 20% (+1%) United Kingdom Independence Party 11% (no constituency candidates in 2011) Liberal Democrats 6% (-5%) Other Parties 5% (+3%)

Regional List Vote: Labour 33% (-4%) Conservatives 22% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 21% (+3%) United Kingdom Independence Party 12% (+7%) Green Party 5% (-1%)Liberal Democrats 5% (-3%) Other Parties 2% (-5%)

A forecast produced by Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre suggests that Labour would win 28 seats (26 and 2), Conservatives 14 (6 and , Plaid Cymru 11 (6 and 5), UKIP 5 (all regional list) and the Lib Dems 2 (2 and 0) which would mean that Labour would be three short of a majority and that either a Lab led coalition, rainbow coalition or Lab minority administration would the result.

[Harry Hayfield]

It just so happens I have done a calculation of the Assembly (on the proviso of a 100% transfer from constituency to regional list, which has never happened):

Wales North Constituencies: Labour 5, Conservatives 3, Plaid Cymru 1
Wales North Regional List Votes: Labour 107,722, Conservatives 100,103, UKIP 44,392, Plaid 42,637 (No other parties qualify)
Wales North Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Mid and West Wales Constituencies: Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1
Mid and West Wales Regional List Votes: Conservatives 90,209, Labour 63,798, Plaid 56,382, Liberal Democrats 39,219, UKIP 33,649 (No other parties qualify)
Mid and West Wales Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Lab win the second seat, Lib Dem win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South West Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 1
Wales South West Regional List Votes: Labour 113,582, Conservatives 56,685, UKIP 37,692, Plaid 25,540 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South West Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, Plaid win the third seat, UKIP win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South Central Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 2
Wales South Central Regional List Votes: Labour 135,592, Conservatives 86,878, UKIP 37,346, Plaid 34,629, Lib Dem 24,338 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South Central Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Plaid win the second seat, Con win the third seat, Lib Dem win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Plaid 1, Con 1, Lib Dem 1)

Wales South East Constituencies: Labour 7, Conservatives 1
Wales South East Regional List Votes: Labour 131,779, Conservatives 73,938, UKIP 51,251, Plaid 22,516 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South East Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Constituencies Won: Labour 25, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 3, Liberal Democrats 1
Regional List Members Elected: Labour 1, Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 5, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 8
Total Assembly Members: Labour 26, Conservatives 15, Plaid Cymru 8, UKIP 8, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour short of a majority by 5)

[Harry Hayfield]

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr will be very interesting indeed. In 1999 Rhodri polled 53%, 2003 48%, 2007 53% and 2011 45% and when the MP for the constituency stood down in 2010 Plaid's vote fell from 46% to just 36% (with most of that support going to the Conservatives (Plaid -10%, Lab -2%, Con +8%, Lib Dem +2%. UKIP +1%). If that happens in May you will have Plaid on 33%, Lab on 28%, Con on 28% and Lib Dem on 7% (making the seat a right three way marginal)