Given how the Tory number of consintuency seats increased by 3, 2 at the expense of Labour. one would like to think this is the year that the party could be thrown out of office by a coalition of Tories, LibDems, and perhaps even UKIP, given their decent vote share. Although a coalition with a moderate Plaid would be workable. Leanne Wood would probably have to resign though.
I think that's wishful thinking. Labour won 25 seats in Wales on Thursday and would presumably (I've not worked the figures out) have won two list seats in Mid and West Wales were it an Assembly election; this takes Labour to 27 out of 60.
I have.
Obviously it's inaccurate to assume Assembly list vote mirrors constituency Westminster vote (Plaid and tiny others would no doubt do better) if this had been an Assembly election and everyone had won the same direct seats the results would be
SE Lab 7+0, Con 1+2, UKIP 0+2
SC Lab 6+0, Con 2+1, UKIP 0+1, PC 0+1, LD 0+1
SW Lab 6+0, Con 1+2, PC 0+1,
LD UKIP 0+1
M&W Con 4+0, Lab 1+2, PC 2+0, LD 1+1, UKIP 0+1
N Lab 5+0, C 3+1, UKIP 0+2, PC 1+1
sum Lab 25+2, Con 11+6, UKIP 0+7, PC 3+3, LD 1+2
It would take all four other parties cooperating to dislodge Labour. Exceedingly unlikely.
EDIT for interesting error.
