There Is No 'Blue Wall'
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  There Is No 'Blue Wall'
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Author Topic: There Is No 'Blue Wall'  (Read 5513 times)
Torie
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« on: May 12, 2015, 01:32:56 PM »

Not that this rendition of the mathematically obvious by Nate Silver, who's rather demonized around here anyway, will slow down the endless chatter about the topic by the usual suspects, but whatever.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2015, 01:34:34 PM »

I think it's pretty clear that the map is slightly slanted against the GOP, they have to win basically all the swing states, while the Dems need only about half.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2015, 01:46:51 PM »

Well, this is one narrative of the past 24 years.  The other one is that Dems are basically getting a constant share of the white vote since 1984, Perot interrupted what would otherwise have been an FDR style streak for Republicans in the 1980's/90's, and Obama breaking through was entirely about demographic change.  Exit polls suggest Perot drew evenly from R's and D's, so I lean toward Silver's explanation, but the alternative argument is also compelling.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2015, 01:48:04 PM »

Sure, if you win the popular vote by 3.9%, you're going to easily get 270 electoral votes.  That seems obvious.

But, is a Republican likely to win by 3.9% in 2016?  I don't think so.  The argument that Democrats have an advantage in 2016 is more that Republicans can't win by expanding the map and turning out voters.  The Obama strategy doesn't work for Republicans.  None of their candidates are exceptional or appeal outside the Republican base.

The clear strategy for Republicans is a very negative campaign that drives down turnout among everyone and a laser focus on winning the close Obama states (FL, VA, OH, IA or CO). 
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King
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2015, 01:50:27 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.
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aktheden
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2015, 01:56:07 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2015, 01:56:40 PM »

Nate Silver made some pretty ridiculous assumptions in that piece.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2015, 01:57:02 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2015, 01:59:16 PM by Lief 🐋 »

Jesus christ, that fraud Nate Silver sure loves to hear himself talk, doesn't he? (Has he apologized for blowing his UK election prediction yet, by the way? Probably blamed it all on the polls, as is his usual escape route when his predictions are wrong.) Only someone as self-absorbed as he would need to spend 30 paragraphs and five charts and graphs explaining such a simple and straightforward point. Roll Eyes

There's no need to talk about the electoral college until October 2016 or so, because there's no need to talk about the electoral college unless the popular vote is a tie. The popular vote being a tie is historically rare, but by October 2016 we will be close enough to the election to know whether or not the state by state math matters. Like King said, what's much, much more important are the national vote fundamentals: demographics, the strength of the economy, favorability ratings, etc.
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King
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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2015, 02:02:24 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

LOL
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2015, 02:10:04 PM »

There is no blue wall.
However since 1992, there has been a popular vote wall for the GOP at under 51%. As such a whole bunch of states that are D+1 to D+3 look like they are permanent Dem states, but they are no more Dem today than they were in 1968-88. It is just the GOP cant perform in the NPV.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2015, 02:11:03 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Carrying 65% of the white vote is very doable.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2015, 02:11:59 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Given the rumors that Hillary plans on making Affirmative Action a center piece of her campaign, 65% might not be to far off.
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King
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« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2015, 02:14:07 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Given the rumors that Hillary plans on making Affirmative Action a center piece of her campaign, 65% might not be to far off.

Rumors by who? A guy rambling on the street corner?
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2015, 02:15:49 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Given the rumors that Hillary plans on making Affirmative Action a center piece of her campaign, 65% might not be to far off.

Rumors by who? A guy rambling on the street corner?

Try reading the articles on RCP.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2015, 02:21:45 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Given the rumors that Hillary plans on making Affirmative Action a center piece of her campaign, 65% might not be to far off.

I actually wonder how there can be people like you who believe what you do.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2015, 02:22:32 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Given the rumors that Hillary plans on making Affirmative Action a center piece of her campaign, 65% might not be to far off.

Rumors by who? A guy rambling on the street corner?

Try reading the articles on RCP.

Should've gone with the guy rambling on the street corner. Now we know those "rumors" are nonsense.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2015, 02:23:34 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

wanna bet?
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2015, 02:28:57 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

wanna bet?

70% is too much for 2016, but very doable by 2032
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2015, 02:33:18 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2015, 02:42:24 PM by Torie »

I think it just splendid that everyone here understands it is about  95% all about the popular vote, and nothing else, and this parsing of swing states is just a waste of time, particularly at this point in the election cycle. And sure one can speculate about the popular vote, but given Hillary's potential problems, and given that we don't know who the Pub nominee will be, and that it is really up in the air in fact, and that we don't know how the Pub contenders will do under the klieg lights under pressure in prime time, and given that we don't know what the economy will be like, or what the Middle East will look like, and whether or not there have been more terrorist attacks, and how the Iran thing will play out, isn't that just about as silly an exercise?

Thank so much. Cheers.

PS: Oh yes, Lief, Silver did blame the polls for the UK debacle (interestingly, the Labour internal polls were much closer to the mark, with them down about 4%, and they were deeply worried about the election, and what the SNP was doing to them, so Milibrand was trotted out  to traduce the SNP, and announce that there were absolutely no marriage plans in the far horizon with them at all, but it was too little too late), but also blamed himself, for not having a higher error factor, to wit his confidence level about the potential of a majority government was much lower than it should have been. And that is about as relevant to this discussion as who Bushie is going to vote for for POTUS in 2016.
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King
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2015, 02:34:31 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

wanna bet?

70% is too much for 2016, but very doable by 2032

At 70% white, you're basically asking Bill Maher and his audience to start voting Republican. There's no way the GOP can hit that threshold with whites. Even in 2014 landslide, they only won 60%.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2015, 02:36:49 PM »

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

wanna bet?

70% is too much for 2016, but very doable by 2032

i will bet you actual money (maybe $5?) that the republican candidate for president in 2016 will not reach 65% of the white vote. you up for it?
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King
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2015, 02:39:52 PM »

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention how Nate is plagiarizing himself from 4 years ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

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It's always 50-50!
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2015, 02:44:35 PM »

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention how Nate is plagiarizing himself from 4 years ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

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It's always 50-50!

What do you think the odds are dear?
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King
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« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2015, 02:46:48 PM »

What do you think the odds are dear?

I think 99% Clinton, 1% GOP is fair at the moment, sweetheart. Kiss
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: May 12, 2015, 02:53:51 PM »

What do you think the odds are dear?

I think 99% Clinton, 1% GOP is fair at the moment, sweetheart. Kiss

Thanks honey buns. I will write that down. I assume that there is no money out there for me on this one from you is there, with those odds? Yes, I thought not. Tongue

Btw, I quite enjoy your posts, and some of them make a heck of a lot of sense. It's just well, your confidence level, and confidence in your crystal ball, and the immutability of voting habits, kind of gives me vertigo. Speaking of persons of color in the context of immutability, to get off this damn white thing ad nauseum for just a moment, did you happen to notice what happened to the Asian vote in 2014?
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