Bush is skipping the Iowa Straw Poll; Might skip the Caucus

[retromike22]

Signs he'll skip the caucus as well and just focus on NH?

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jeb-bush-skipping-iowa-straw-poll

Update where he might skip the caucus:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/jeb-bush-may-skip-iowa-in-2016-sources-say#.sbVYmy7bD

[Torie]

The straw poll is nonsense, but he would be foolish to skip the caucus primary. If he does, that would give a better opening for Kasich if he runs to make some headway. Katich more than Walker is the guy he really has to worry about. Rubio too, but I have this feeling that Rubio is going to flame out. His base is not very deep, although wide. He's really an establishment candidate. We shall see.

[retromike22]

The straw poll is nonsense, but he would be foolish to skip the caucus primary. If he does, that would give a better opening for Kasich if he runs to make some headway. Katich more than Walker is the guy he really has to worry about. Rubio too, but I have this feeling that Rubio is going to flame out. His base is not very deep, although wide. He's really an establishment candidate. We shall see.

McCain skipped the caucus. Romney gave it mild attention until the very end.

But Bush vs. Walker or Rubio is starting to remind me of Clinton vs. Obama 2008 so I assume Bush wants to avoid another candidate getting such a large bounce from an Iowa win that his NH support collapses.

[Suburbia]

Bush should still campaign in Iowa. It's a pivotal state. As Iowa goes, so goes the nation.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It baffles me why candidates don't compete in Iowa.  To me, I would want to take advantage of every chance to grab delegates that I can.  Then again, I'm not a campaign manager.

[Likely Voter]

McCain didn't 'skip' Iowa, he just didn't make a big play for it in 2008. McCain spent $1M on ads vs Huckabee's $1.4M. Giuliani only spent $250k.  Bush can't 'skip'. He needs to get into the top 4 or 5 at least.

[Lief 🗽]

He hasn't even officially declared yet and he's already talking about skipping things?? Ummmm

[King]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

[Ebsy]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

My thoughts exactly.

[Cory]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

My thoughts exactly.

[Suburbia]

Bush should still campaign in Iowa. It's a pivotal state. As Iowa goes, so goes the nation.

Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Tom Harkin agree.

George W. Bush and Barack Obama agree. Won it in 04 and 08.

[SATW]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

He hasn't even officially declared yet and he's already talking about skipping things?? Ummmm

Oh I get it now. He's skipping the Straw Poll because he's not running. He's skipping every contest.

[Eraserhead]

He hasn't even officially declared yet and he's already talking about skipping things?? Ummmm

Oh I get it now. He's skipping the Straw Poll because he's not running. He's skipping every contest.

I can sort of see that non-announcement coming.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He hasn't even officially declared yet and he's already talking about skipping things?? Ummmm

Oh I get it now. He's skipping the Straw Poll because he's not running. He's skipping every contest.

I can sort of see that non-announcement coming.

You guys seriously think Bush isn't going to run? Wow, that's a brave prediction.

Though, on the positive side, him not running would probably help Kasich a lot

[Beet]

Why skip anything? The sheer number of other candidates in the race mean that he could get #1 with like 20% of the vote.

[Ebsy]

Why skip anything? The sheer number of other candidates in the race mean that he could get #1 with like 20% of the vote.

I think there is a good chance whoever wins Iowa is going to have much less than 20%.

[BlueSwan]

It baffles me why candidates don't compete in Iowa.  To me, I would want to take advantage of every chance to grab delegates that I can.  Then again, I'm not a campaign manager.

Because the early states aren't important in terms of delegate counts at all. Iowa and New Hampshire are important for one thing only: To establish an impression about the strength of a candidates campaign, to create a media narrative. John Kerry in 2004 is a prime example of a candidate who was down in the polls, yet after Iowa and New Hampshire was suddenly inevitable. John McCain pretty much established himself as the clear frontrunner in New Hampshire.

Iowa is a special case for republicans since Iowa has tended to ditch the establishment candidate for semi-fringe social conservatives. For a candidate like Jeb Bush, it might be better to skip Iowa altogether, than get an embarrassing 5th place. The delegates lost are inconsequential anyway. I'm not saying I necessarily agree with this assessment, but there is reason behind it.

[BaconBacon96]

The Bush candidacy is falling apart at the seems. Maybe there is an opening for Kasich after all.

[Bull Moose Base]

The straw poll is nonsense, but he would be foolish to skip the caucus primary. If he does, that would give a better opening for Kasich if he runs to make some headway.

Kasich looks to be skipping Iowa too actually.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/05/11/john-kasichs-possible-2016-run-might-focus-on-new-hampshire-primary-not-iowa.html

Jonathan Bernstein has argued skipping Iowa hurts you in New Hampshire but I'm skeptical. Romney made a much bigger play than McCain for Iowa, did much better in Iowa and then McCain won NH.

[heatmaster]

I think there is way to much emphasis placed on Iowa, very rarely do candidates who win in Iowa win the nomination, take Bush in '80 or Dole in '88, if Jeb makes too much of an effort there, he risks losing the expectations game, he won't win there - in real terms, the evangelicals are not going to support him anyway, so why bother?  Not running seriously there scales down Iowa's importance and marginalizes both Santorum and Huckabee, his biggest worry is Walker, he takes Walker down in N.H. and uses that to slingshot into South Carolina, winning there would be great, but placing second there, is okay. Florida is Bush country, he can do okay to very good on Super Tuesday after that, it's only a question of time. If my scenario plays out, then Jeb will be seen as a genius who deserves to win, if not who cares.

[Mr. Morden]

To clarify, skipping the straw poll doesn't mean you're skipping the caucuses.  Romney 2012, for example, skipped the straw poll, but then made a run at the caucuses and basically tied for first.  I don't think skipping the straw poll has to be a killer for later participation in the caucuses.

[IceSpear]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

Nah, that's Christie.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

Nah, that's Christie.

No King's comparison was accurate.
Christie=McCain. Savvy enough to rebound but Dead in September when people remember what kind of decisions he makes. (No, he's not actually my pick to win the nomination but it wouldn't surprise me.)

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

Nah, that's Christie.

No King's comparison was accurate.
Christie=McCain. Savvy enough to rebound but Dead in September when people remember what kind of decisions he makes. (No, he's not actually my pick to win the nomination but it wouldn't surprise me.)

No, I agree Christie matches Giuliani, scuttled by an aura of corruption. Jeb is a better match for Romney but probably with stronger conservative competition. Although if he's lucky, Walker will be like Perry.