Let's talk North Carolina

[BlueSwan]

Obviously Virginia is the prime southern state that democrats are looking to seal up for 2016 and beyond, but North Carolina should be next up. The question is how fast, if it all, this will happen. Looking at the numbers from the last 4 elections, the trend looks pretty great for democrats:

This is the North Carolina vote compared to the national popular vote:

2000: R+13,33
2004: R+10,04
2008: R+6,88
2012: R+1,96 (EDIT: This number is wrong, it should be 6,04, which obviously makes the trend far less worrying for republicans, although the general trend is still there)

Looking just at those numbers, the trend looks extremely worrying for conservatives and very encouraging for democrats. For each election, democrats have gained at least 3 percentage points on the GOP. Should this trend continue, North Carolina would be roughly D+1 in 2016.

So the question is whether this trend is as solid as it looks here or if the numbers are deceiving us. The argument in favour of the democratic trend is that growing urban areas, a growing number of hispanics, and well educated voters moving to North Carolina is benefitting dems and will continue to do so. An argument against could be that Obama has been in a unique position to challenge for North Carolina, which other dems might not be. Maybe a generic R against a generic D would not have produced the same swing?

Infact, if we look further back, the picture is more muddy:

1992: R+6,29
1996: R+11,19

So during the elections up until 2000, North Carolina was actually getting more republican. However, this could easily be explained by Bill Clinton having an entirely different appeal in the south than Gore/Kerry/Obama.

At the state level, unlike in Virginia, Republicans still control pretty much everything in North Carolina.

So what is your verdict? Is North Carolina trending reliably D to the point that the state will soon be lean D or is something different happening?

[smoltchanov]

It will remain a purple state for near future. Most likely - very slowly moving Democratic. But, surely, not at California's speed of 1990th and 2000th....

[Adam Griffin]

In my humble opinion, North Carolina will become a reliable Democratic state - if that is to happen - around the same time as Georgia (and maybe even later). I maintain to this day that the Obama campaign made perhaps the best short-term decision (as all campaigns focus on; it's not their job to worry about long-term trends), but the DNC et al made a tragic mistake in not investing more in Georgia in 2008 & 2012. Let's look at the difference between GA & NC:

NC & GA D Share of Vote:

2004: NC 43.58% D; GA 41.34% D
2008: NC 49.70% D; GA 46.90% D
2012: NC 48.35% D; GA 45.39% D

Tracking of NC & GA:

2004-2008: NC 6.12 points D gain; GA 5.56 points D gain
2008-2012: NC 1.35 point D loss; GA 1.51 point D loss

Democratic Performance (NC compared to GA)

2004: NC +2.24
2008: NC +2.80
2012: NC +2.96

So, after hundreds of millions of Democratic dollars spent in NC in 2008, 2012 & 2014, NC has managed to widen the gap between it and GA by a mere 0.72 points.

Hundreds of millions of dollars, a Democratic convention and three rounds of on-the-ground grassroots and party efforts have yielded less than one point of progress when compared to Georgia over eight years, with virtually no net improvement between 2008 and 2012 between the two.

A good ground game can yield 2-3 points in an election cycle. I only can imagine what Georgia's numbers would have looked like in 2008 and 2012 had it been given the same attention...

One big problem going forward in NC is that - and this is of course my opinion - the Democratic share of the white vote still has room to fall further. Obama got 35% of the white vote in 2008 & 31% in 2012; Hagan 33% in 2014. If we're to believe exit polls, then Kerry received only 27% in 2004. In addition, NC blacks - according to exit polling - voted only 85% for John Kerry in 2004 (compared to 88% in 2004 in GA).

On the other hand, GA whites really can't go any lower than they already have. They were 23% for Kerry in 2004, 23% for Obama in 2008, 20% for Barnes in 2010, 20% for Obama in 2012 & 23% for Nunn/Carter in 2014. The rural whites in Georgia have by and large already defected; in NC, this is not as much the case, so there is more room for losses in this area.

I think when you consider that blacks seem to be slightly more Democratic in GA than NC, blacks are a greater share of the population in GA than in NC, whites' preferences for Ds in GA seem more stable than in NC, and that GA's non-white population is growing at a faster rate than NC, that GA may actually be the real/next Southern state to keep an eye on.

[bobloblaw]

Obviously Virginia is the prime southern state that democrats are looking to seal up for 2016 and beyond, but North Carolina should be next up. The question is how fast, if it all, this will happen. Looking at the numbers from the last 4 elections, the trend looks pretty great for democrats:

This is the North Carolina vote compared to the national popular vote:

2000: R+13,33
2004: R+10,04
2008: R+6,88
2012: R+1,96

Looking just at those numbers, the trend looks extremely worrying for conservatives and very encouraging for democrats. For each election, democrats have gained at least 3 percentage points on the GOP. Should this trend continue, North Carolina would be roughly D+1 in 2016.

So the question is whether this trend is as solid as it looks here or if the numbers are deceiving us. The argument in favour of the democratic trend is that growing urban areas, a growing number of hispanics, and well educated voters moving to North Carolina is benefitting dems and will continue to do so. An argument against could be that Obama has been in a unique position to challenge for North Carolina, which other dems might not be. Maybe a generic R against a generic D would not have produced the same swing?

Infact, if we look further back, the picture is more muddy:

1992: R+6,29
1996: R+11,19

So during the elections up until 2000, North Carolina was actually getting more republican. However, this could easily be explained by Bill Clinton having an entirely different appeal in the south than Gore/Kerry/Obama.

At the state level, unlike in Virginia, Republicans still control pretty much everything in North Carolina.

So what is your verdict? Is North Carolina trending reliably D to the point that the state will soon be lean D or is something different happening?

This drives me nuts. I dont think you know what PVI is. Is is the GOP or Dem performance in that state relative to the national popular vote. Your R+s are wrong

[SingingAnalyst]

Obviously Virginia is the prime southern state that democrats are looking to seal up for 2016 and beyond, but North Carolina should be next up. The question is how fast, if it all, this will happen. Looking at the numbers from the last 4 elections, the trend looks pretty great for democrats:

This is the North Carolina vote compared to the national popular vote:

2000: R+13,33
2004: R+10,04
2008: R+6,88
2012: R+1,96

Looking just at those numbers, the trend looks extremely worrying for conservatives and very encouraging for democrats. For each election, democrats have gained at least 3 percentage points on the GOP. Should this trend continue, North Carolina would be roughly D+1 in 2016.

So the question is whether this trend is as solid as it looks here or if the numbers are deceiving us. The argument in favour of the democratic trend is that growing urban areas, a growing number of hispanics, and well educated voters moving to North Carolina is benefitting dems and will continue to do so. An argument against could be that Obama has been in a unique position to challenge for North Carolina, which other dems might not be. Maybe a generic R against a generic D would not have produced the same swing?

Infact, if we look further back, the picture is more muddy:

1992: R+6,29
1996: R+11,19

So during the elections up until 2000, North Carolina was actually getting more republican. However, this could easily be explained by Bill Clinton having an entirely different appeal in the south than Gore/Kerry/Obama.

At the state level, unlike in Virginia, Republicans still control pretty much everything in North Carolina.

So what is your verdict? Is North Carolina trending reliably D to the point that the state will soon be lean D or is something different happening?

This drives me nuts. I dont think you know what PVI is. Is is the GOP or Dem performance in that state relative to the national popular vote. Your R+s are wrong

Depends on definition. Some people define 47/53 to 50/50 as a D+3 swing; others, as a D+6 swing (since the GOP margin of victory changed from 6 points to 0 points). A consistent definition would be nice. And I think NC will become a swing state, already is, and slowly will become more D as better educated parts of the state grow with respect to less educated, rural, more Republican parts.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

North Carolina was NOT R +1.96, it was R +5.96 compared to the national average. The way you calculated it isn't even internally consistent.

Yea, your numbers are wrong. Obama won nationally by 4 and lost NC, by 2 , so it is R+6.

[bobloblaw]

North Carolina was NOT R +1.96, it was R +5.96 compared to the national average. The way you calculated it isn't even internally consistent.

Yea, your numbers are wrong. Obama won nationally by 4 and lost NC, by 2 , so it is R+6.

No it isnt. NC is R+3 Romey got 47% nationally and 50% in NC.

[Adam Griffin]

North Carolina was NOT R +1.96, it was R +5.96 compared to the national average. The way you calculated it isn't even internally consistent.

Yea, your numbers are wrong. Obama won nationally by 4 and lost NC, by 2 , so it is R+6.

No it isnt. NC is R+3 Romey got 47% nationally and 50% in NC.

That is NOT how PVI is calculated. PVI is D vs. R.

He's looking at PVI in the same way that Charlie Cook does for CPVI, which is the same way I've looked at it, too. Mathstatman is right in how there is no universal consensus on the matter (the same can be said for "swing"; some people view swing more as what would be a "half-swing" in Atlas definition - a simple improvement in percentage points of the improving party). It's the same thing here.

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[Slander and/or Libel]

NC's PVI is R+3, but not for the reason bobloblaw said. His calculation happens to match up because the D+R share of the vote nationally and in NC were almost identical. Where this is not true, his calculation and the true PVI calculation tend to deviate.

[BlueSwan]

North Carolina was NOT R +1.96, it was R +5.96 compared to the national average. The way you calculated it isn't even internally consistent.

Yea, your numbers are wrong. Obama won nationally by 4 and lost NC, by 2 , so it is R+6.

Yes indeed. Was going about it too fast. My bad!

[DS0816]

The Republicans do have to worry about North Carolina.

This is part of their base (when the party prevails). The trend shows that, for a winning Democrat to carry select states among the Old Confederacy, Florida and Virginia now carry and, after that, next is North Carolina.

Approximately 11 to 15 percent of a winning Democrat's electoral-vote score comes from select states from the Old Confederacy. So, after Florida and Virginia, where else? Georgia. South Carolina. Mississippi. Alabama. Texas is another subject. And then there are a trio who have moved from persuadable (Arkansas and Louisiana, which voted for the nine winning presidential tickets of 1972 to 2004; Tennessee, a former bellwether since 1912 minus 1924 and 1960, prior to 2008) to strongly Republican. So, there is plenty of logic to this. North Carolina, a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama's first election, in 2008, is that state that will carry for a winning Democrat whose percentage margin is at least five (or, most recently, six) points nationwide.

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats only win North Carolina when they have electoral landslides. The dems need to wait a little longer on its trend for it to become reachable in very competitive elections.

[DS0816]

Democrats only win North Carolina when they have electoral landslides. The dems need to wait a little longer on its trend for it to become reachable in very competitive elections.

Not true.

Winning 28 states, and carrying North Carolina in the process, is not an electoral landslide.

And, while Republican posters fantasize over Pennsylvania, also keep in mind that Barack Obama won Indiana with carriage of 28 states. (A big difference between the other 20th-century-winning Democrats who carried that state: Woodrow Wilson, 1912; Franklin Roosevelt, 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson, 1964. Those previous winners carried at least 80 percent of available states. Obama carried 56 percent of states which included Indiana.) And, over the last two elections (2008, 2012), Indiana's margins were barely different from former bellwether state Missouri's.

Let's keep in mind that, with exit polls for 2012, the men in North Carolina gave more Democratic support than men nationwide: 46 vs. 45 percent.

[DS0816]

Obviously Virginia is the prime southern state that democrats are looking to seal up for 2016 and beyond, but North Carolina should be next up. The question is how fast, if it all, this will happen. Looking at the numbers from the last 4 elections, the trend looks pretty great for democrats:

This is the North Carolina vote compared to the national popular vote:

2000: R+13,33
2004: R+10,04
2008: R+6,88
2012: R+1,96

Looking just at those numbers, the trend looks extremely worrying for conservatives and very encouraging for democrats. For each election, democrats have gained at least 3 percentage points on the GOP. Should this trend continue, North Carolina would be roughly D+1 in 2016.

So the question is whether this trend is as solid as it looks here or if the numbers are deceiving us. The argument in favour of the democratic trend is that growing urban areas, a growing number of hispanics, and well educated voters moving to North Carolina is benefitting dems and will continue to do so. An argument against could be that Obama has been in a unique position to challenge for North Carolina, which other dems might not be. Maybe a generic R against a generic D would not have produced the same swing?

Infact, if we look further back, the picture is more muddy:

1992: R+6,29
1996: R+11,19

So during the elections up until 2000, North Carolina was actually getting more republican. However, this could easily be explained by Bill Clinton having an entirely different appeal in the south than Gore/Kerry/Obama.

At the state level, unlike in Virginia, Republicans still control pretty much everything in North Carolina.

So what is your verdict? Is North Carolina trending reliably D to the point that the state will soon be lean D or is something different happening?

This drives me nuts. I dont think you know what PVI is. Is is the GOP or Dem performance in that state relative to the national popular vote. Your R+s are wrong

Depends on definition. Some people define 47/53 to 50/50 as a D+3 swing; others, as a D+6 swing (since the GOP margin of victory changed from 6 points to 0 points). A consistent definition would be nice. And I think NC will become a swing state, already is, and slowly will become more D as better educated parts of the state grow with respect to less educated, rural, more Republican parts.

That has to do with percentages rather than percentage margins.

Margins are more important…and one such example why that is are the presidential elections of the 1990s.

People who are placing percentages over percentage margins, on this site, need to adjust themselves.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

[bobloblaw]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

The Dems have no good candidates for Senate or Gov in NC in 2016

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

The Dems have no good candidates for Senate or Gov in NC in 2016

Roy Cooper, AG since 2001 is running for Gov.

[bobloblaw]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

The Dems have no good candidates for Senate or Gov in NC in 2016

Roy Cooper, AG since 2001 is running for Gov.

And he'll lose

[BaconBacon96]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

The Dems have no good candidates for Senate or Gov in NC in 2016

Roy Cooper, AG since 2001 is running for Gov.

And he'll lose

What a detailed and interesting analysis.

[DS0816]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

If the Democratic nominee wins in 2016, and does so with a larger margin the one received with the 2012 re-election for Barack Obama, North Carolina will carry.

[Dancing with Myself]

I see us being a battleground for years to come; personally I love that fact. Growing up elections meant little around here besides to us nerds, tv people, and the elderly. I remember in 2004 when I was in 6th grade there was a little bit of interest but besides that it wasn't much. 2000 I was only 7 so I didn't know much besides my family pulled for Dubya and so did I.  Then 2008 came along and everything went crazy in the good way. Hillary and  Bill came to Mount Airy and our county got election fever and it was pretty sweet. Then came the general with lot's of stops (we never got one from either Obama or McCain though because I would have went   )   In 2012 it was less of a circus but more of a Romney idol show but the Dems were pretty strong.

County wise we have always been Dem in elected offices until recently when Republicans took over most. Our clerk of court went Republican for the first time in 40 or 50 years this past mid term. As for elections we have voted Republican more times that not. We voted for Grant both times, Blaine in 1884, in fact we voted Republican  from 1896-1928 before going Dem with FDR. Ike won in 1956 which started the Reps back up. Besides Carter in 76 we haven't gone Dem anytime. In 2012 Romney became the only Republican to sweep every precinct. Closest that ever come before was Dole in 1996, Clinton won 1 precinct to offset it.  So in a nutshell in my area it's pretty Republican but in the big cities it's Democratic territory.  However the no affiliation/Indy ranks have been growing dramatically the last few years. I will prob switch to that affiliation here in the next little bit.

As for the Governor/Senate races, I see at least the Governor's race being close. McCory isn't that popular like he think's he is. He's doing better than in the polls than Perdue did in 2011 but that's not much better. Cooper is pretty popular and unless Hagan decides to run (I don't see it unless she does in 2020,) he will be the Democratic candidate. It'll be a close race, McCory's only leading by 2 right now in the polls. If Cooper attacks McCory's record and runs a stronger campaign (let's face it anyone could do better than Walter Dalton did,) then it should be a barn burner. As for the Senate I see Burr winning solidly unless a strong 2008 esque Democratic wave comes through or Hagan runs. Hagan will at least make it close but I see Burr going back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

If the Democratic nominee wins in 2016, and does so with a larger margin the one received with the 2012 re-election for Barack Obama, North Carolina will carry.

NC gov is a pure tossup; like FL senate; eventhough Hilary polls poorly in those states, she certainly can make those two races tight.

But, the presidential race wont be a landslide, due to House gerrymandering, Hilary can win CO, NV, Ia, Pa and NH. For 272 electors.

[DS0816]

NC is already a battleground state; but unlike Va or OH or Ia; it isnt a tipping point race. Dems can win NC again in 2016.

If the Democratic nominee wins in 2016, and does so with a larger margin the one received with the 2012 re-election for Barack Obama, North Carolina will carry.

NC gov is a pure tossup; like FL senate; eventhough Hilary polls poorly in those states, she certainly can make those two races tight.

But, the presidential race wont be a landslide, due to House gerrymandering, Hilary can win CO, NV, Ia, Pa and NH. For 272 electors.

The numbers won't be the same. The map won't be neither. In fact, there has never been a duplicated electoral map for two elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know thats why I said she will win 272 electors; not the same as 2012.

But Roy Cooper can win in 2016 without Clinton coattails

[DS0816]

I know thats why I said she will win 272 electors; not the same as 2012.

But Roy Cooper can win in 2016 without Clinton coattails

No.

If the 2016 presidential election results in a Democratic hold, with Hillary Clinton, she's not going to get reduced down to 272. The four most instrumental bellwether states—Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado—will carry.