Summer 2015 Weather Outlook

[Frodo]

Remember to click the image for the link to the article. 

[Joe Biden 2020]

What does the Rain Departs mean for Western Oklahoma and Western Texas?  Does that mean the heavy rain those areas have now will begin to subside?  What about for temperatures in those areas?

[Frodo]

What does the Rain Departs mean for Western Oklahoma and Western Texas?  Does that mean the heavy rain those areas have now will begin to subside?  What about for temperatures in those areas?

"Into the start of June, showers and storms will improve the drought conditions across northern and northwestern Texas, but the region could dry out again as rain falls mainly west of these areas during midsummer."

"Overall, the southern Plains and lower to mid-Mississippi Valley will see fewer 90- and 100-degree F days than in recent years."

[Thomas D]

Showers and t-storms. My type of weather.

I agree, but is that all we're going to get? Should we build an arc?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Showers and t-storms. My type of weather.

I agree, but is that all we're going to get? Should we build an arc?

It's funny you mention that.  I don't know if you saw on the news about the Tigers escapings from the Tiger Safari in Oklahoma last Wednesday when we had all the severe weather.  But, I had remarked that the animals were just looking for Noah... And found him... Lol

[Ban my account ffs!]

Usually summers with strengthening el niños are cool for large sections of the nation and wet for most of the nation as well...

But that doesn't preclude some outlier hot years.  The only cases we have where an El Niño formed and then lasted into a second year was 1940, 1952, 1958, 1969, 1977, and 1987.  None of these fit what's going on now very well with perhaps the exception of 1940.

It appears the el niño forming right now may be quite strong.  Summers where strong El Niños formed were 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, and 2009.  These were generally cool and wet summers for the nation as a whole.

So we shall see if Accuweather has it right or if past events still hold some predictive power.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Remember to click the image for the link to the article. 

Similer to Summer 2014

Here in Portland we had a 90 degree day in the 1st week of October, and record average tempreture over summer . The tempreture really never went below 80 last summer.

[Simfan34]

There are some hints from the long term models and from the behavior of the Pacific ocean in the past year that suggests a significant El Nino event may be on the cards beginning this spring/summer.

While it wouldn't help this spring and summer, it would almost guarantee a nice, wet winter for California next year.

Usually summers with strengthening el niños are cool for large sections of the nation and wet for most of the nation as well...

But that doesn't preclude some outlier hot years.  The only cases we have where an El Niño formed and then lasted into a second year was 1940, 1952, 1958, 1969, 1977, and 1987.  None of these fit what's going on now very well with perhaps the exception of 1940.

It appears the el niño forming right now may be quite strong.  Summers where strong El Niños formed were 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, and 2009.  These were generally cool and wet summers for the nation as a whole.

So we shall see if Accuweather has it right or if past events still hold some predictive power.

Looks like you were right:

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/20/el-nino-intensifying-could-rival-strongest-in-history/?tid=sm_fb

[Ban my account ffs!]

It failed to materialize last winter, but it just guaranteed it for this year.  The last significant El Niño to occur was in 2009/10 so it has been a full 5 years since the end of a significant one.  We had La Niña in 2010/11 and 2011/12 with neutral conditions the past three years.  The last time it was this long without an El Niño was 1942-1951.

The global sea surface temperature anomalies are quite similar to this point in 1997.  Convection and thunderstorms have been continually suppressed over the Indian ocean and west Pacific and enhanced in the central and east Pacific near South, Central, and southern North America.

Increased upper level west to east winds are working hard to sheer the tops off any thunderstorms in the Caribbean and western Atlantic, suppressing any tropical storm development there.

Going into late summer and fall, look for below normal tropical activity in the Atlantic and possibly western Pacific with increased activity for the eastern Pacific.  This is mostly an issue for Mexico...but with so much warm water, storms will survive further north and their remnants could deliver more unusual desert thunderstorms, like Delores did the past few days.

A strong El Niño will likely mean ending the California drought so that by January we will all be fretting over overfilled reservoirs and mudslides.  And scare dtories of massive fires when the verdant green predictably dries out in the ever dry California summer next year.

[The Other Castro]

I really don't like rough wind, and I'll probably need to buy something to jam the flow of it. One might even say I'm looking for a windjammer.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I really don't like rough wind, and I'll probably need to buy something to jam the flow of it. One might even say I'm looking for a windjammer.

I hear the north of France manufactures the best windjammers.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This has been the worst summer in Chicago I ever remember. It rains all day every day! Im sick of it.

Could you send us some of that rain?  Please? Pretty please? With sugar on top?

[Green Line]

This has been the worst summer in Chicago I ever remember. It rains all day every day! Im sick of it.

Could you send us some of that rain?  Please? Pretty please? With sugar on top?

Sounds like a plan. You can take our summer and we'll have your winter. Sound fair?

[Cubby]

This summer has been great so far. It's only been over 90 twice, which is unusual but I love it.

We're still a few inches below normal for rainfall this year but not enough to cause any problems.

The hurricane season is supposed to be below average, which usually isn't an issue in New England but after Irene in 2011 and Sandy the next year we pay more attention to the Tropical updates than we used to (I hope). It always seemed like the Outer Banks of NC got slammed every time and prevented them from getting up here.

[Frodo]

One month of summer left to go -how has it measured up to the Accuweather outlook so far?

[Ban my account ffs!]

I'd give Accuweather a C.  They got the west largely correct and some hit and miss in the east.  But they did poorly as the summer has been cool in the midwest and northeast and much of the nation has been drier than normal except the corn belt and the SW quadrant of the nation.  Basically the central midwest and deserts got rain and everyone else has seen spotty rain.

The lower Mississippi valley and low country of the Carolinas have been especially dry.

Interestingly it has been an unusually, if not historically, wet summer for California.  Thunderstorms from Pacific moisture have been spotty but have contributed to beneficial and very unusual summer rainfall in places that usually almost never see summer rains.

But because the "norm" is near 0 rain, even spotty storms that leave most areas high and dry contribute to historical "wetness".

The rains have been more substantial and beneficial in Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.  The drought has been busted in New Mexico and places like Santa Fe have seen day after day of storms... like a real monsoon. 

[VPH]

Dead wrong in Kansas. It's been very wet and unseasonably cool...

[DemPGH]

It was cool and very, very wet here early on through June although not much with thunderstorms (since it was so cool) but since the start of July it has warmed up and dried out very nicely. July and August have been beautiful with a lot of days in the mid to upper 80s with sunshine. We're supposed to have a couple days coming up over 90, actually. On that I won't complain! So I guess they were in the ballpark; they were right that it warmed up from how it started.