Summer 2015 Weather Outlook (user search)
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Author Topic: Summer 2015 Weather Outlook  (Read 1647 times)
Simfan34
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« on: July 21, 2015, 05:34:37 PM »

There are some hints from the long term models and from the behavior of the Pacific ocean in the past year that suggests a significant El Nino event may be on the cards beginning this spring/summer.

While it wouldn't help this spring and summer, it would almost guarantee a nice, wet winter for California next year.

Usually summers with strengthening el niņos are cool for large sections of the nation and wet for most of the nation as well...

But that doesn't preclude some outlier hot years.  The only cases we have where an El Niņo formed and then lasted into a second year was 1940, 1952, 1958, 1969, 1977, and 1987.  None of these fit what's going on now very well with perhaps the exception of 1940.

It appears the el niņo forming right now may be quite strong.  Summers where strong El Niņos formed were 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, and 2009.  These were generally cool and wet summers for the nation as a whole.

So we shall see if Accuweather has it right or if past events still hold some predictive power.

Looks like you were right:

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/20/el-nino-intensifying-could-rival-strongest-in-history/?tid=sm_fb
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