NH-1: FEC fines Guinta for illegal loan from parents (Resign Watch Thread)

[free my dawg]

http://nhpr.org/post/after-five-years-fec-fines-guinta-illegal-donations

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Unfortunately, this rules out him going to prison, but this has to be pretty bad for him either way. He claims that he had an equitable interest in their accounts, but the five years of lying and drawn-out conclusions don't exactly help his case.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No one will remember nor care about this in Nov. 2016.

[free my dawg]

No one will remember nor care about this in Nov. 2016.

You do realize that Carol Shea-Porter and the state Democratic Party has made this one of their main attacks against him for years?

Or that it was so much of an issue that Guinta had to lie to the public about it, say that the FEC cleared him of any wrongdoing, and slander his opponent over it?

Or that these attacks worked in November 2012, when the heyday about it was lower than it is now?

If you think that this isn't an issue (and he won't face a strong primary challenge - one of his opponents from 2010 accused him of stealing the election), then you definitely haven't been following this race much.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

[Ebsy]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Woo! D +1

[free my dawg]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

[free my dawg]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

He will come back in 2018

Fine with me. After all I'll be older than 25 by 2020.

[Gass3268]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

He will come back in 2018

Fine with me. After all I'll be older than 25 by 2020.

Endorsed!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

He will come back in 2018

Fine with me. After all I'll be older than 25 by 2020.

Endorsed!

Can we have an Atlas Forum SuperPAC? Dedicated to electing forum vets. Of course, we'll have to give it a sneakier name than that because posting history will be a massive concern.

[Türkisblau]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

He will come back in 2018

Fine with me. After all I'll be older than 25 by 2020.

Endorsed!

Can we have an Atlas Forum SuperPAC? Dedicated to electing forum vets. Of course, we'll have to give it a sneakier name than that because posting history will be a massive concern.

The mere connection would probably sink 's promising career.

[publicunofficial]

No one will remember nor care about this in Nov. 2016.

Attack ads don't exist, right?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

the FEC admits to an illegal loan from its parents?

[RFayette]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

He will come back in 2018

Fine with me. After all I'll be older than 25 by 2020.

Endorsed!

Can we have an Atlas Forum SuperPAC? Dedicated to electing forum vets. Of course, we'll have to give it a sneakier name than that because posting history will be a massive concern.

. Oh God yes it would be a concern.

[free my dawg]

The Union Leader, NH's leading newspaper that serves 40% of the state (which is also famous for being strongly conservative), based in Guinta's hometown, just published this editorial. Hell, even Kelly Ayotte is demanding an explanation.

And at this point, I'm honestly not sure he makes it past the primary.

[Maxwell]

The Union Leader, NH's leading newspaper that serves 40% of the state (which is also famous for being strongly conservative), based in Guinta's hometown, just published this editorial. Hell, even Kelly Ayotte is demanding an explanation.

And at this point, I'm honestly not sure he makes it past the primary.

Dan Innis 2016? !

[free my dawg]

Dan Innis 2016? !

Could certainly happen. Chris Sununu seemed to be leaning towards challenging Hassan, but if Hassan doesn't run for Senate he's a near lock to run for Guinta's seat. Here's my general spergalerg of candidates for NH-1:

• Chris Sununu - Probably the most high-profile name on the GOP's bench now that Garcia got exposed as a serial plagiarist. Has the dynasty factor that can propel him far in the race, and would probably clear the field if he got in.
• Jeb Bradley - Also very high-profile. He's still involved in NH politics and could actually run for his old seat. I also feel like he could clear a lot of seats, and especially run the margins up in the northern part of the district.
• Dan Innis - Another name that people know about. Leans more to the libertarian side, and has an interesting story. Probably the start of the B-listers.
• Jeanie Forrester - A State Senator who's done well at getting elected. Apparently connects very well to voters and seems like a good campaigner (60% in 2012 in an even district is pretty great).
• One of the old 2010 challengers - One of them (Bob Bestani, Rich Ashooh, Sean Mahoney) is pissed over it, and is also speaking out against Guinta. But considering this is an open seat, I'd rank them in the B-list of candidates.
• Nancy Stiles - Would be a strong candidate for the general (actually won in a D+6 district in 2010 and has consistently beaten A-list candidates), but would most likely lose the primary because of her moderate views (such as supporting the compromise on Medicaid expansion or coming out for gay marriage during the DOMA controversy). Would probably be the best long-term bet for this seat.
• David Boutin - from the moderate wing of the party. However, his underwhelming performance in the general election the last few years (a libertarian almost spoiled his campaign in 2012 and he only won by 12 last year in an underwhelming performance) could sink him.
• Scott Brown - Because we all know he's ambitious enough that he might actually do it.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dan Innis 2016? !

• Scott Brown - Because we all know he's ambitious enough that he might actually do it.

Has he even dropped any hints about running for an NH house seat?

[Ebsy]

The Union Leader, NH's leading newspaper that serves 40% of the state (which is also famous for being strongly conservative), based in Guinta's hometown, just published this editorial. Hell, even Kelly Ayotte is demanding an explanation.

And at this point, I'm honestly not sure he makes it past the primary.

Ouch.

[publicunofficial]

There are murmurs of a Guinta resignation fast approaching.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There are murmurs of a Guinta resignation fast approaching.

Source that isn't MSNBC or some liberal blog?

[free my dawg]

There are murmurs of a Guinta resignation fast approaching.

Source that isn't MSNBC or some liberal blog?

I haven't heard of a resignation, but I've definitely heard that the NHGOP is cutting bait.

[Ebsy]

Apparently Scott Brown now lives in the district. Did he not get the message in November?

[free my dawg]

Apparently Scott Brown now lives in the district. Did he not get the message in November?

FWIW the residence he used to run for Senate was based out of his district too. I'm not reading much into it because one district covers all eight miles of beach in NH.

[free my dawg]

And for those who are wondering, here are the Democratic candidates:

• Shawn O'Connor - Businessman who just moved to NH-1 last year, and is already running for this seat. He identifies with the Third Way movement and generally reeks of moderate heroism (especially on economics). Needless to say, he will not be getting my support in a special election or in the general, and if he were to make it past the primary, I would vote Libertarian. Actually, I'd go as far as to say I'd vote for someone like Innis or even Stiles or Boutin over him. After all, doesn't "...Democrats’ plans to continually raise taxes on the most successful Americans who are increasingly disincentivized to innovate when innovation is so critical to our future" sound like a Romney talking point?
• Carol Shea-Porter - You guys know her by now. The progressive option in the race. She has a lot of name recognition, and I'd venture to say she could beat O'Connor in a primary if she ran. Also been railing against Guinta/House Republicans since she lost. Gun to my head, she runs. You sacrifice electability for ideology here, and that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
• Chris Pappas - the state party's biggest rising star. Sufficiently progressive, young enough to advance and have a career, and battle-tested (won his R+4 district last year by 5 points). Probably the best candidate to hold this seat long-term, and although he's not as progressive as Shea-Porter, he's not a moderate hero like O'Connor.
• Donna Soucy - Another overperformer and rising star in the state party. She represents half of Manchester and is second in line in her caucus in the state senate. I'd venture to believe that she'd sit out if Pappas were to run, but she passes the ideological litmus test.
• Andrew Hosmer - Survived 2014. 2012's overperformance doesn't count, considering the candidate he faced was caught manufacturing endorsements. Again, follows the Shaheen-esque mold of pragmatism.
• Deb Pignatelli - recently retired executive councilor. Has a lot of experience in state government. Only downside is that she'll be 68 when 2016 rolls around.

As you can see, there are a lot of pragmatist options here. Shea-Porter is the only major progressive option, and O'Connor is the option if you're an unapologetic moderate.

[CountryClassSF]

That means RINO Innis runs for the seat, and we lose it.