NH-1: FEC fines Guinta for illegal loan from parents (Resign Watch Thread)

[free my dawg]

http://nhpr.org/post/after-five-years-fec-fines-guinta-illegal-donations

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Unfortunately, this rules out him going to prison, but this has to be pretty bad for him either way. He claims that he had an equitable interest in their accounts, but the five years of lying and drawn-out conclusions don't exactly help his case.

[free my dawg]

No one will remember nor care about this in Nov. 2016.

You do realize that Carol Shea-Porter and the state Democratic Party has made this one of their main attacks against him for years?

Or that it was so much of an issue that Guinta had to lie to the public about it, say that the FEC cleared him of any wrongdoing, and slander his opponent over it?

Or that these attacks worked in November 2012, when the heyday about it was lower than it is now?

If you think that this isn't an issue (and he won't face a strong primary challenge - one of his opponents from 2010 accused him of stealing the election), then you definitely haven't been following this race much.

[free my dawg]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

[free my dawg]

Looks like another Shea-Porter comeback to me.

Considering the stuff she's posted on her Facebook, I'd say it looks like it too. Either way I just can't wait to not be represented by a corrupt lying scumbag anymore.

He will come back in 2018

Fine with me. After all I'll be older than 25 by 2020.

[free my dawg]

The Union Leader, NH's leading newspaper that serves 40% of the state (which is also famous for being strongly conservative), based in Guinta's hometown, just published this editorial. Hell, even Kelly Ayotte is demanding an explanation.

And at this point, I'm honestly not sure he makes it past the primary.

[free my dawg]

Dan Innis 2016? !

Could certainly happen. Chris Sununu seemed to be leaning towards challenging Hassan, but if Hassan doesn't run for Senate he's a near lock to run for Guinta's seat. Here's my general spergalerg of candidates for NH-1:

• Chris Sununu - Probably the most high-profile name on the GOP's bench now that Garcia got exposed as a serial plagiarist. Has the dynasty factor that can propel him far in the race, and would probably clear the field if he got in.
• Jeb Bradley - Also very high-profile. He's still involved in NH politics and could actually run for his old seat. I also feel like he could clear a lot of seats, and especially run the margins up in the northern part of the district.
• Dan Innis - Another name that people know about. Leans more to the libertarian side, and has an interesting story. Probably the start of the B-listers.
• Jeanie Forrester - A State Senator who's done well at getting elected. Apparently connects very well to voters and seems like a good campaigner (60% in 2012 in an even district is pretty great).
• One of the old 2010 challengers - One of them (Bob Bestani, Rich Ashooh, Sean Mahoney) is pissed over it, and is also speaking out against Guinta. But considering this is an open seat, I'd rank them in the B-list of candidates.
• Nancy Stiles - Would be a strong candidate for the general (actually won in a D+6 district in 2010 and has consistently beaten A-list candidates), but would most likely lose the primary because of her moderate views (such as supporting the compromise on Medicaid expansion or coming out for gay marriage during the DOMA controversy). Would probably be the best long-term bet for this seat.
• David Boutin - from the moderate wing of the party. However, his underwhelming performance in the general election the last few years (a libertarian almost spoiled his campaign in 2012 and he only won by 12 last year in an underwhelming performance) could sink him.
• Scott Brown - Because we all know he's ambitious enough that he might actually do it.

[free my dawg]

There are murmurs of a Guinta resignation fast approaching.

Source that isn't MSNBC or some liberal blog?

I haven't heard of a resignation, but I've definitely heard that the NHGOP is cutting bait.

[free my dawg]

Apparently Scott Brown now lives in the district. Did he not get the message in November?

FWIW the residence he used to run for Senate was based out of his district too. I'm not reading much into it because one district covers all eight miles of beach in NH.

[free my dawg]

And for those who are wondering, here are the Democratic candidates:

• Shawn O'Connor - Businessman who just moved to NH-1 last year, and is already running for this seat. He identifies with the Third Way movement and generally reeks of moderate heroism (especially on economics). Needless to say, he will not be getting my support in a special election or in the general, and if he were to make it past the primary, I would vote Libertarian. Actually, I'd go as far as to say I'd vote for someone like Innis or even Stiles or Boutin over him. After all, doesn't "...Democrats’ plans to continually raise taxes on the most successful Americans who are increasingly disincentivized to innovate when innovation is so critical to our future" sound like a Romney talking point?
• Carol Shea-Porter - You guys know her by now. The progressive option in the race. She has a lot of name recognition, and I'd venture to say she could beat O'Connor in a primary if she ran. Also been railing against Guinta/House Republicans since she lost. Gun to my head, she runs. You sacrifice electability for ideology here, and that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
• Chris Pappas - the state party's biggest rising star. Sufficiently progressive, young enough to advance and have a career, and battle-tested (won his R+4 district last year by 5 points). Probably the best candidate to hold this seat long-term, and although he's not as progressive as Shea-Porter, he's not a moderate hero like O'Connor.
• Donna Soucy - Another overperformer and rising star in the state party. She represents half of Manchester and is second in line in her caucus in the state senate. I'd venture to believe that she'd sit out if Pappas were to run, but she passes the ideological litmus test.
• Andrew Hosmer - Survived 2014. 2012's overperformance doesn't count, considering the candidate he faced was caught manufacturing endorsements. Again, follows the Shaheen-esque mold of pragmatism.
• Deb Pignatelli - recently retired executive councilor. Has a lot of experience in state government. Only downside is that she'll be 68 when 2016 rolls around.

As you can see, there are a lot of pragmatist options here. Shea-Porter is the only major progressive option, and O'Connor is the option if you're an unapologetic moderate.

[free my dawg]

That means RINO Innis runs for the seat, and we lose it.

Innis is a far better candidate than Guinta ever was.

Well, Guinta won twice out of three times. Innis is not a conservative. His entire campaign was about his sexuality. Perhaps he would have won if he talked about something, anything else.

Maybe I'm in the fringe here, but I don't think this hurts Guinta in the slightest.  Most voters don't care about this stuff. Do I approve of it? No. But let's face it, many in Congress have gotten away with *Far* worse.

I originally didn't think it would matter much, but from what I've been reading about it, it's bad enough that Guinta would receive a strong primary challenge if he ran again - despite the fact that he's an incumbent.

Innis lost the NH-1 2014 primary because, more than anything else, Guinta was seen as the candidate, who, as a previous incumbent mounting a comeback bid, as the one who "deserved to have the nomination the most". Had Innis reached the general, he would have beaten Shea-Porter by a wider margin than Guinta did.

Maybe, but it's hard to know.  Are there any other conservatives in NH-01 that can run for this?

Chris Sununu is definitely looking for a promotion. He just stepped down from his business, and there's really no other place to go.

[free my dawg]

I love the Sununu family but I hate dynasty politics. I guess I'm okay with it.

Yep - looks like you and I are in the same boat about the current slate of candidates. The only declared opponent Guinta has is a DINO, and you're afraid of Innis jumping in (I wouldn't be, by the way - there's simply going to be too big of a field for him to eke out a victory). Don't think the rest are conservative enough for you.

Guinta, on the other hand, is done for. There's a lot of pressure on Guinta to at least explain what happened, and he's facing backlash from even his own party (as I've mentioned). The Union Leader - mind you, the conservative newspaper so large and so influential that it sunk Muskie's presidential campaign in 1972 - just called for Guinta's resignation. The Eagle-Tribune, another conservative paper that covers the southern half of my district, just called for his resignation. It's going to get very ugly for him - especially considering he only squeaked by with eight percent as an established candidate, with the NHGOP's support in 2014.

[free my dawg]

Innis is very, very bad on the homosexual issue -- I think he is also pro-abortion? (Just a notion, I'll be happy to correct if I'm wrong).

You're right. He is pro-choice - with some restrictions (like a 20-week ban/parental consent).

[free my dawg]

I think Guinta will resign before the end of the year.    Glad to see him go frankly.

You and me both.

[free my dawg]

Guinta doesn't have very many friends in the NHGOP, does he? I mean, this scandal really shouldn't be big enough to lead to resignation calls from within your own party, yet that's what's going on.

So, the three likeliest replacement Republicans are Jeb Bradley, Dan Innis, and Chris Sununu, correct? And CSP should be virtually guaranteed the Democratic nomination.

Yeah - if she wants it. She'll clear the field if she runs.

Also worth noting that Guinta got caught using campaign money for his legal defense.

[free my dawg]

So, the following is not a big deal:

*Taking a loan 70 times as big as the limit in a rough primary, which you wind up winning by 4%, causing the FEC to investigate you
*Consistently insisting that you just forgot about $355k and it came from a different bank account - specifically insisting that it totally wasn't your parents
*Lying to the public about being cleared of any wrongdoing
*Falsely accusing your opponent of lying about you still being investigated
*Hiding your bank account for five years
*Being found out for cheating your way into a primary win in 2010 five years later

And somehow this will all blow over like an out-of-place comment, even though the state party (whose backing is essentially the only reason he beat Dan Innis in the first place) is cutting him loose.

Jesus, he could kill a man and you apologists would find an excuse for him to stay in office.

[free my dawg]

Speaking of Innis, he will only run if it were an open seat primary.

[free my dawg]

Guinta doesn't have very many friends in the NHGOP, does he? I mean, this scandal really shouldn't be big enough to lead to resignation calls from within your own party, yet that's what's going on.

So, the three likeliest replacement Republicans are Jeb Bradley, Dan Innis, and Chris Sununu, correct? And CSP should be virtually guaranteed the Democratic nomination.

Yeah - if she wants it. She'll clear the field if she runs.

Also worth noting that Guinta got caught using campaign money for his legal defense.

You don't think Chris Pappas could beat Shea-Porter?

The matchup won't even happen. Pappas has already indicated he'd defer to her if she ran.

[free my dawg]

Yes

At least you're consistent about it. We can agree to disagree about this.

Guinta doesn't have very many friends in the NHGOP, does he? I mean, this scandal really shouldn't be big enough to lead to resignation calls from within your own party, yet that's what's going on.

So, the three likeliest replacement Republicans are Jeb Bradley, Dan Innis, and Chris Sununu, correct? And CSP should be virtually guaranteed the Democratic nomination.

Chris Sununu I'd say is probably the likeliest to get in, and now that the Johns seem to have taken a back seat, Chris is the standard-bearer of the family (which has a lot of weight in the NHGOP). He's also called on Guinta to resign, so I'd say he's got a 90% chance of running - and that 10% is if Hassan goes for Senate and the governor's mansion is open.

If he runs for the House (and it looks like he will), I think he clears the field and is the strongest candidate the Republicans have. Also gives a better launching pad if he wants to take his brother's seat.

[free my dawg]

@CountryClassSF: Good news - you have your conservative. Former Executive Councilor Bob Burns is in, should Guinta resign.

Bad news - he lost to Pappas by four points in 2012. In a district that's about 3 points more Republican than NH-1. It's unlikely he'll win if he makes it past the primary.

If you're looking for other conservatives not named Sununu, here are two more:

*Joe Kenney - Executive Councilor for District 1. Has won on Democratic turf against a high-profile opponent twice, even though he didn't have the previous EC's family's endorsement. Both wins were in a special election and in 2014, but he's clearly battle-tested enough to be a good campaigner.

*Pam Tucker - A proud O'Brienite who has shown interest in this seat before Guinta ran. State representative - probably the most conservative of all.

Don't know the rest about the smatterings of businessmen, though all of Guinta's 2010 opponents were sufficiently conservative.

EDIT: And apparently Brad Cook, who ran for governor a while back, is considering a bid.

[free my dawg]

UPDATE: NHGOP executive board has decided not to call for Guinta's resignation. The chair specifically says she's not worried.

[free my dawg]

So, quick timeline of me living under Guinta's rule:

*July 2010: Political reporter Kevin Landrigan first raises the question of where Guinta got $125,000 to loan his campaign, about two weeks after.

*August 2010: Former NHGOP chair Fergus Cullen (who's from the moderate wing of the party) breaks a story that congressional candidate and former Mayor of Manchester Frank Guinta wound up listing a new, unreported bank account in the low-to-mid six figures on his disclosure form. An activist files a request for the FEC to investigate. Guinta claims that he just forgot about the account, despite the account being the source of over $250,000 of loans. Throughout, he insists that it's his money and that it didn't come from his parents.

*September 2010: When the dust settles, Frank Guinta wins the Republican primary for NH-1 by less than 3,000 votes (4%). Carol Shea-Porter raises questions, and Guinta complains about "personal attacks".

*October 2010: NHPR does a piece disproving Guinta's explanation - specifically that from his real estate transactions, he only gained about $52,000, and his insurance consulting was unlikely to give him hundreds of thousands either. He also tries to dodge a question whether the money is his parents' or not, saying that he's "focused on the economy". The NHDP also files an FEC complaint.

*November 2010: NH voters elect Frank Guinta to represent them for two years. He later votes farther to the right than Carol Shea-Porter voted to the left.

*September 2012 to November 2012: Frank Guinta is unopposed in the primary. Mystery Bank Account becomes an issue again. He continues to deny and dodge. Shea-Porter wins.
 
*October 2014: Carol Shea-Porter raises the question of the $355,000 bank account again in the final days of the election. He accuses her of lying, saying he was cleared by the House Ethics Committee, and in a debate specifically says that he was cleared by the FEC of any wrongdoing.

*November 2014: Guinta wins by less than 9,000 votes (3%). Everything is fine, Democrats regroup.

*May 13, 2015: The FEC fines Frank Guinta for an illegal donation that turned out to be his parents' money after all. He "apologized", yet still refused to admit that the money was his parents'.

And after that, you can read the thread.

Essentially, this is a big deal because Frank Guinta injected a third of a million dollars into a very close race that most likely tipped it in his favor, hid the source of that third of a million from the public, and knowingly lied about it coming from his parents. He also knowingly and willfully lied about being cleared by the FEC, and accused his opponent of lying about it when she attacked him on his mystery loan. So essentially, this story includes a public official buying a primary with illegal loans, hiding it from everyone, stonewalling his investigation in the process, lying to the public about the investigation, and slandering his political opponents when they brought it up.

If that's okay to some of you, then your ethical priorities are seriously fycked up.

[free my dawg]

Shea-Porter is in. Also calls for Guinta to resign.

[free my dawg]

Guinta's parents and sister refute his explanation that it was his own money. His mother even explicitly described one of the payments as a loan from her.

[free my dawg]

And now Innis has gone from "I'll only run if Guinta doesn't" to "I'm considering it".

[free my dawg]

Busy,  busy day in resign watch news.

*The NHGOP chair has officially stated that she's lost her trust in Guinta and stopped just short of calling for his resignation.
*The NHGOP vice chair has resigned due to her comments
*Al Baldasaro, the state house's resident arch-conservative (or at least ever since O'Brien became toxic), has accused Guinta of betraying his trust and has called on his retirement (if Baldasaro somehow wins the primary he's completely unelectable in the general)
*Innis is now considering
*A bunch of newspapers have reaffirmed their calls for Guinta's resignation