Ceiling for Republicans and Democrats

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republicans

I did not set percantage in each state so forget it

Kasich 338
Sanders 200


Democrats

Hilary 374
Cruz 174

[bobloblaw]

Republicans

I did not set percantage in each state so forget it

Kasich 338
Sanders 200


Democrats

Hilary 374
Cruz 174

MN has a better GOP PVI than MI.

[bobloblaw]

Republicans

I did not set percantage in each state so forget it

Kasich 338
Sanders 200


Democrats

Hilary 374
Cruz 174

GA is inelastic. Cruz would win GA.

[RINO Tom]

Republican blowout:

Democratic blowout:

Let's all keep in mind just how much of a blowout a party's CEILING would be.

[SingingAnalyst]

Republicans

I did not set percantage in each state so forget it

Kasich 338
Sanders 200


Democrats

Hilary 374
Cruz 174

Looks about right. Even MO and MT might be winnable in a best-case Dem scenario.

[pbrower2a]

Republican blowout:

Democratic blowout:

Michigan has too many blacks to go Republican in a Presidential election, and Minnesota does not swing much.  A Kentucky poll showed Rand Paul tied with Hillary Clinton.  Clinton-but-not-Obama states could stay that way -- but Hillary wins them.

[King]

Yeah, if it didn't bother to elect its native son Gore in 2000, it's not going for Hillary.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, if it didn't bother to elect its native son Gore in 2000, it's not going for Hillary.

I think Arkansas and Louisiana are off the table as well. I could see Kentucky, West Virginia, and Montana being close in a landslide for Clinton.

[bedstuy]

Imagine you ran a crazy computer simulation that could realistically play out the election 1000 times in a randomized way.  Is the 95th percentile result "the ceiling" or is the 99.9th percentile result if you ran the simulation 1 million times the ceiling?

Because, imagine if Jeb Bush wins a long bruising primary, he runs a bad campaign and has a few serious corruption scandals, Rand Paul runs as a third party candidate, Jeb Bush kills a pedestrian in a drunk driving accident and it comes out that Jeb Bush is a closeted homosexual.  In that situation, the Republican would get zero electoral votes, but that's extremely, extremely unlikely. 

[SingingAnalyst]

Imagine you ran a crazy computer simulation that could realistically play out the election 1000 times in a randomized way.  Is the 95th percentile result "the ceiling" or is the 99.9th percentile result if you ran the simulation 1 million times the ceiling?

Because, imagine if Jeb Bush wins a long bruising primary, he runs a bad campaign and has a few serious corruption scandals, Rand Paul runs as a third party candidate, Jeb Bush kills a pedestrian in a drunk driving accident and it comes out that Jeb Bush is a closeted homosexual.  In that situation, the Republican would get zero electoral votes, but that's extremely, extremely unlikely. 

Only if UT gets swallowed by quicksand. But I like your outside-6-sigma way of thinking.

[bedstuy]

Imagine you ran a crazy computer simulation that could realistically play out the election 1000 times in a randomized way.  Is the 95th percentile result "the ceiling" or is the 99.9th percentile result if you ran the simulation 1 million times the ceiling?

Because, imagine if Jeb Bush wins a long bruising primary, he runs a bad campaign and has a few serious corruption scandals, Rand Paul runs as a third party candidate, Jeb Bush kills a pedestrian in a drunk driving accident and it comes out that Jeb Bush is a closeted homosexual.  In that situation, the Republican would get zero electoral votes, but that's extremely, extremely unlikely. 

Only if UT gets swallowed by quicksand. But I like your outside-6-sigma way of thinking.

I meant the third party candidate, Rand Paul, would win the solid Republican states.

[MATTROSE94]

Republicans

I did not set percantage in each state so forget it

Kasich 338
Sanders 200


Democrats

Hilary 374
Cruz 174

I agree for the most part, though I also feel that New Mexico, Minnesota, and Maine statewide could be in play for the Republicans in a Kasich vs Sanders election. In the Democratic map, Hillary Clinton could potentially make Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, and Montana closer than in 2012, but ultimately Ted Cruz would still carry all four states without breaking too much of a sweat.