Will the Libertarian Party ever win a seat in the House or Senate?

[gespb19]

And if they do, what state (in the case of a senate election or an at large house seat) or congressional district would it most likely occur in?

[ElectionsGuy]

No, they won't.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

No, they won't.

[Emperor Charles V]

And if they do, what state (in the case of a senate election or an at large house seat) or congressional district would it most likely occur in?

Only if an incumbent GOP member (Amash, Paul, Massie) defects, which will not happen if they value their re-elections.

[IceSpear]

Definitely not in the Senate, but I could see it happening in some fluke House election somewhere, like a Democrat not being on the ballot in a deep blue district, or vice versa.

[Gekkonidae]

One surprise house race, at least. They're no little thing.

[Vega]

Maybe in some sort of weird special election in a state that has electoral fusion which falls apart, leaving like 4 serious candidates.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Libertarian demographics rarely find themselves packed in a single geographic area, especially one that would affect the very large  house districts. Even well established classical liberals in other parties very rarely win single member seats, and mostly rely on lists and preference deals. There are (as far as I know) three parties which rely on the libertarian moniker (In Australia, Costa Rica and Denmark) and all of them rely on PR.

the Green Party has a much higher likelihood of winning single member seats, because their demographics pack together. And indeed they have managed to win SM seats across the rest of the Anglosphere, and Germany; after intensive and long term campaigning. (Like really long-term in some cases)

[VPH]

Democrat runs without a Republican opponent against a Libertarian and dies the day before the election?

[Donerail]

I seem to remember an incumbent for some state legislative office up in Jax forgetting to file. Much less likely, but not inconceivable it could happen for a House seat.

[Zioneer]

I could see Alaska going for a Libertarian House member if the Dems didn't contest a seat, the Libertarian ran a great campaign and had lots of money, and Don Young falls to a huge corruption scandal.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I could see Alaska going for a Libertarian House member if the Dems didn't contest a seat, the Libertarian ran a great campaign and had lots of money, and Don Young falls to a huge corruption scandal.

Alaska? The state entirely dependent on state handouts and subsidies? The state whose main desire in a federal politician someone who says to the Treasury "gib money pls" as often as possible? The state who constantly confounds Washington conventional wisdom by voting for economic populist items? That Alaska?

[PPT Spiral]

I could see Alaska going for a Libertarian House member if the Dems didn't contest a seat, the Libertarian ran a great campaign and had lots of money, and Don Young falls to a huge corruption scandal.

Alaska? The state entirely dependent on state handouts and subsidies? The state whose main desire in a federal politician someone who says to the Treasury "gib money pls" as often as possible? The state who constantly confounds Washington conventional wisdom by voting for economic populist items? That Alaska?

Alaska has been friendlier territory for Libertarians than the other states. Ed Clark got nearly 12% in the 1980 presidential election, and Dick Randolph got elected to the state House of Representatives, who then went on to get about 15% statewide in a gubernatorial race.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, but I feel there is a natural ceiling in that state. Too many natives, a large federal government presence, too many small rural areas that rely on subsidies. Which is a problem in general for rural libertarians. On paper, people think that people who live far away from the government wouldn't care for it, but for the most part rural areas do not want the full Libertarian treatment. I'm not surprised Alaska has a high Lib. vote, but that seems more likely a protest against the dominant Republican Party which is known to be fairly corrupt.

Rural areas probably could have a seperate party catering to them, but it certainly wouldn't resemble the libertarians.

Where the Danish libertarians (I don't have much info on Costa Rican demographics) flourish is in opposing environments. Young, urban, single and working in the high income private sector. It's a specific demographic and the issue for the libertarians is that these guys are (like the lone rural libertarians) drowned by left-leaning neighbours in single member demographics.

[RFayette]

Like most rural areas, Alaska wants low taxes, low regulations, and high subsidies.  There aren't too many areas that want low/low/low. 

[RINO Tom]

I'd guess they'd just run as Republicans...

[mds32]

A Republican Candidate would have to have a serious filing mix-up in a state like Alaska or Montana where there are a high number of Libertarian voters/competent Libertarian candidates. Then it would have to be a Libertarian vs. a Democrat. in Montana for a court race in 2012 the GOP didn't run a statewide candidate for Court Clerk vs. the Democrat. However the Libertarians did and their candidate took several counties from the Democrat. In a GOP wave year it could have been enough to pull the Libertarian over the line.

[King]

Freedom is too disorganized to win anything.

[BaconBacon96]

The Green Party are more likely to win a seat.

[Nichlemn]

I could see it with a locally popular candidate, where the win is more of a personal vote.

[Donerail]

I could see it with a locally popular candidate, where the win is more of a personal vote.

Perhaps if someone like Amash got primaried by someone popular with the GOP establishment but relatively unknown or unpopular in his district, as was speculated could happen last year, he could return to Congress on the Libertarian line in an Alaska 1990 situation.

[136or142]

the Libertarian Party has won a number of State House seats in Alaska and maybe a couple other states while the Constitution Party has won a seat once in Montana.  I believe the Liberty Union Party once won a few State House seats in Vermont.

As to the Libertarians or Greens or much less likely the Constitution Party ever winning a seat in the U.S House or Senate.  Never say never, but it seems virtually impossible at this point.  The average Libertarian candidate running against both a Democrat and a Republican gets around 2% of the vote and the Green Party does slightly worse.  Even in districts where either a Democrat or a Republican doesn't run, they are lucky to break 25% of the vote.

Somewhere around 25-40% of all aggregate votes for the Libertarian or Green Party comes from districts where either the Democrats or Republicans don't run a candidate.

The highest share of the vote for either a U.S Senate or Governors race for the Libertarians in 2014 was, in of all places, Vermont for the governors race where they received around 4.5% of the vote.  I can only guess that the allegations of Peter Shumlin ripping off a mentally challenged person played a role in the Libertarians relative success there.

In general, the Libertarians will have to do a much better job of 'quality control' when it comes to candidate selection if they ever want to be perceived as a serious party.  They certainly seem to emphasize quantity over quality.

[Mister Mets]

It might happen some time.

There main problem is that the libertarians with the greatest political talent are likely to follow the lead of Justin Amash and Rand Paul, and run as Republicans.