When will Democrats win back the House?

[Sir Mohamed]

Are there any predictions for this? I am in doubt that it will happen in 2016, even with a comfortable victory of Hillary Clinton. Probably 2018 if Democrats lose the White House next year.

The 2016 Senate map does not look bad for 2016, but almost 30 House seats to gain is very difficult.

[Gass3268]

In 2022 at the earliest, 2080 at the latest.

[Nyvin]

2022 is earliest possible date that I see it happening.

Granted that "would be" Hillary's sixth year midterm...so even that date is really iffy.

[Frodo]

When Republicans win back the White House. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 or later.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hopefully after Pelosi retires.

[All Along The Watchtower]

2022, yeah.

[ElectionsGuy]

2022 or later.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The Republicans should have significant enough majorities that I don't really see the 2020 census changing anything.  Plus, even without gerrymandering, the Democratic vote is more concentrated than the Republican vote, so the GOP should have some natural edge in the House.  I would honestly be surprised if the Democrats take back the House in the next 20 years.

[Nyvin]

I mean, the Democrats ha if for almost 40 years, so it's not too much of a strecth to say the Republicans could have it well into the 2040s.

Sadly...quite possible.    Although I'd like to think eventually the GOP would have to change to become competitive nationally for the White House.

[Zioneer]

2022, if Dems have control of redistricting in 2020. If not... When a Republican is elected president and pulls a Dubya.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WjWhenever; there is a Democratic wave, 2022 is the latest.

[ShadowRocket]

I think it could happen in 2020 if a Republican is elected President in 2016, becomes unpopular, Dems have a decent 2018 midterm, and the Republican incumbent President loses reelection in 2020.

Otherwise 2022 probably is their best shot.

[bobloblaw]

Are there any predictions for this? I am in doubt that it will happen in 2016, even with a comfortable victory of Hillary Clinton. Probably 2018 if Democrats lose the White House next year.

The 2016 Senate map does not look bad for 2016, but almost 30 House seats to gain is very difficult.

Possibly 2018 if the GOP win in 2016. Never if the GOP doesnt win again.

[Mr.Phips]

I mean, the Democrats ha if for almost 40 years, so it's not too much of a strecth to say the Republicans could have it well into the 2040s.

Well, Republicans only controlled the House for four years between 1932 and 1994.  Republicans would match this record if they held the House until 2056.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems most likely win House back as soon as there is a liberal SCOTUS by the nxt redistricting; striking down GOP gerrymandering.

This nxt election is for that legacy.

Which will be a nailbitter with Governor Walker.

[Mr.Phips]

The Dems most likely win House back as soon as there is a liberal SCOTUS by the nxt redistricting; striking down GOP gerrymandering.

This nxt election is for that legacy.

Which will be a nailbitter with Governor Walker.

If a liberal court is as partisan as the current Republican Court, any laws that hurt Democrats are fair game for being struck down.  See the current court and Citizen's United.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Too many ifs and buts. What if for example SCOTUS strikes down redistricting commissions?
Then Republicans will gerrymander Arizona but Democrats will also probably have free reign in 2020 at California, New Jersey and Washington.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, there are really two ways this can happen:

1. Geographic realignment where Democrats either recover to >40% with rural voters or start winning inner suburbs 60/40 and pulling to a tie in the exurbs.

2. A Democratic wave with ~57D/41R generic ballot

Caution is warranted with the comparisons to 1933-1994 having 4 years of GOP control.  While that is technically true, ideological conservatives clearly held the balance of power from 1939-58 and during 1981-82.  With today's ideologically polarized parties, the equivalent would be Republican control about 2/3rds of the time until the mid 2050's, which sounds very believable to me. 

[aktheden]

The Republicans should have significant enough majorities that I don't really see the 2020 census changing anything.  Plus, even without gerrymandering, the Democratic vote is more concentrated than the Republican vote, so the GOP should have some natural edge in the House.  I would honestly be surprised if the Democrats take back the House in the next 20 years.

I agree....I see the GOP holding it for the next 20-30 years at least

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also; as soon as the economy makes its full rebound.

But Dems will take whatever they can get. Senate and WH are good enough.

[Sumner 1868]

Sometime in the 2030s in the worst-case scenario. It's increasingly evident 1994 was a realignment.

[Skill and Chance]

Sometime in the 2030s in the worst-case scenario. It's increasingly evident 1994 was a realignment.

Yeah, the case for 1992-94 being the realignment is now much stronger than for 2006/2008/2010.

[RFayette]

The Democrats must make inroads in rural/exurban areas, or they are toast in the House for quite some time. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The presidential race is leaning Democrat, although it is hard to predict, the Dems can catch a wave here; in 2016. The Senate would be lost to the GOP; and make gains in the House