When will Democrats win back the House?

[RFayette]

The Democrats must make inroads in rural/exurban areas, or they are toast in the House for quite some time. 

[RFayette]

I'll go out on a limb and say 2018. 

In the middle of a Republican administration's disastrous first-term in office, the Democrats are able to net the 30-something sets they need to get to 218.  They accomplish this by winning most of the typically marginal seats as well as knocking-off some GOP royalty in American suburbia (i.e., Peter Roskam, Mike Coffman).   

Del Tachi, I've noticed you're one of the few people predicting a 2016 GOP win; what rationale do you have for that conclusion?

[RFayette]

I'll go out on a limb and say 2018. 

In the middle of a Republican administration's disastrous first-term in office, the Democrats are able to net the 30-something sets they need to get to 218.  They accomplish this by winning most of the typically marginal seats as well as knocking-off some GOP royalty in American suburbia (i.e., Peter Roskam, Mike Coffman).   

Del Tachi, I've noticed you're one of the few people predicting a 2016 GOP win; what rationale do you have for that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton's not good on the stump, President Obama will be wildly unpopular amidst a economic downturn, and Scott Walker is the perfect candidate to triangulate a GOP victory by appealing to SoCons, Tea Partiers, and the neocons.

Hillary would make a great president, its just that 3rd terms for a single party are the exception rather than the rule.     

This is where we disagree.  I tend to think we'd hit a recession sometime around 2018-2020.  Is there any evidence a recession is upcoming at this point?