When will Democrats win back the House?

[Nyvin]

2022 is earliest possible date that I see it happening.

Granted that "would be" Hillary's sixth year midterm...so even that date is really iffy.

[Nyvin]

I mean, the Democrats ha if for almost 40 years, so it's not too much of a strecth to say the Republicans could have it well into the 2040s.

Sadly...quite possible.    Although I'd like to think eventually the GOP would have to change to become competitive nationally for the White House.

[Nyvin]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

[Nyvin]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

I count 13 seats held by the Dems that have a Dem PVI of 2% or less ranging from 6%R to 2%D.

Yes,  and the GOP currently holds 245.

245 + 13 = 258

That still leaves 19 seats the GOP would need in very Dem-leaning districts to get to 277, while not losing any of their own.   That's not happening under any realistic scenario.