When will Democrats win back the House? (user search)
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  When will Democrats win back the House? (search mode)
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Author Topic: When will Democrats win back the House?  (Read 6420 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« on: May 15, 2015, 08:31:38 PM »

The Republicans should have significant enough majorities that I don't really see the 2020 census changing anything.  Plus, even without gerrymandering, the Democratic vote is more concentrated than the Republican vote, so the GOP should have some natural edge in the House.  I would honestly be surprised if the Democrats take back the House in the next 20 years.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2015, 10:56:22 PM »

It's certainly impossible with the current districts: even in the potential Clinton wave year some Democrats dream of, the absolute maximum for the Democrats in 2016 would be in ~ the 206-210 range (well short of 218), and they'd just lose many of those again in 2018.

I'm beginning to suspect that even in the 2020s, it'd take something drastic, probably including Puerto Rican statehood and five likely safe Dem seats, to really alter the math to a way that favors the Dems.

I actually think that PR would be a swing state with maybe a slight Republican lean (the politics on the island are very different than those of other Hispanic groups in the US).  Also, the party that supports statehood is the more Conservative of the two Puerto Rican ones, so it would mean that it was having success.  It might take a couple cycles to know for sure, but keep in mind that it was thought that Alaska would be Democratic, while Hawaii would be Republican.
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