When will Democrats win back the House?

[Mr.Phips]

I mean, the Democrats ha if for almost 40 years, so it's not too much of a strecth to say the Republicans could have it well into the 2040s.

Well, Republicans only controlled the House for four years between 1932 and 1994.  Republicans would match this record if they held the House until 2056.

[Mr.Phips]

The Dems most likely win House back as soon as there is a liberal SCOTUS by the nxt redistricting; striking down GOP gerrymandering.

This nxt election is for that legacy.

Which will be a nailbitter with Governor Walker.

If a liberal court is as partisan as the current Republican Court, any laws that hurt Democrats are fair game for being struck down.  See the current court and Citizen's United.

[Mr.Phips]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

[Mr.Phips]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

I count 13 seats held by the Dems that have a Dem PVI of 2% or less ranging from 6%R to 2%D.

Yes,  and the GOP currently holds 245.

245 + 13 = 258

That still leaves 19 seats the GOP would need in very Dem-leaning districts to get to 277, while not losing any of their own.   That's not happening under any realistic scenario.

And Republicans already hold a handful of very Democratic seats:  NV-04, IA-01, NY-24, IL-10, ME-02.

[Mr.Phips]

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If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.  

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

I count 13 seats held by the Dems that have a Dem PVI of 2% or less ranging from 6%R to 2%D.

Yes,  and the GOP currently holds 245.

245 + 13 = 258

That still leaves 19 seats the GOP would need in very Dem-leaning districts to get to 277, while not losing any of their own.   That's not happening under any realistic scenario.

And Republicans already hold a handful of very Democratic seats:  NV-04, IA-01, NY-24, IL-10, ME-02.

ME-02 is NOT especially Democratic - LePage won it easily (double digits). IL-10 and NY-24 have moderate nonoffensive Republicans with at least some crossover appeal, so, while surely gettable for Democrats, will not be easy. IA-01 and NV-04 - yes.

LePage won statewide by five, so of course he won this district by more.  However, even John Kerry won this district by five points.  Any Kerry district should be safe for Dems.