2016 Republican Nomination Poll - Mid-May 2015

[Senator Cris]

Blue = officially announced candidacy.

1st half of May results:

Walker 31.4%
Bush 27.9%
Rubio 14%
Paul 8.1%
Cruz 4.7%
Kasich 3.5%
Santorum 2.3%
Huckabee 1.2%
Palin 1.2%
Graham 1.2%
Gilmore 1.2%
Ehrlich 1.2%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I don't even know anymore. My latest prediction is still a horrible Bush performance with Walker-Christie-Rubio winning the first three, but I think Walker's loss of momentum will be brutal so I have to change. NH has no delegates so Christie will be behind runner ups in the the other two (Paul/Huck, Huck/Cruz?) on the leaderboards and has few likely win states upcoming.

So it comes down to a Paul win in NV for a Rubio/Paul showdown. I voted Paul for the first time in this series, but seriously, no clue. If Huckabee stays in and limits Rubio in the south, that may be all it takes to keep Paul as my pick. Cruz would be a better ally to get delegates from, but that's not likely either. We'll have to see if he can reach the threshold, but if no one's close, it bodes well.

[Frodo]

Scott Walker by default, unless John Kasich decides to throw his hat into the ring too. 

[Suburbia]

Rubio. He picks Thune as veep. Thune won't overshadow Rubio.

[Maxwell]

No clue anymore. Voting Paul because I feel like he'll have a solid consolidation of voters and there are too many candidates who are too stubborn to let go before its too late. Definitely not Bush, and I'm beginning to think Scott Walker will be this cycle's Fred Thompson - heavily hyped, but arrives with a resounding thud. I may have underestimated Rubio, I'm beginning to think he may be a top contender. And I do expect one candidate who is currently polling poorly to win a primary, maybe even Iowa, I'm just not sure who.

[morgieb]

I have no clue. Bush will bust. Walker I suspect may be a bust too, especially with him becoming Jindal-esque in terms of popularity in his home state. Rubio I still think is vapid. Kasich strikes me as another Huntsman/Pawlenty for some reason.

I'll be edgy and say Rand. I doubt I'll have a firm idea until Iowa.

[King]

Ted Cruz is the big wildcard here. His ability to get people to vote for him his questionable, but he can destroy anyone he wants.

On the debate stage in 2012, every flavor of the month from Bachmann to Cain to Perry got a round of blasting from the rest. Cruz has the ability to create a vast conspiracy theory and faux scandal about anyone. It wouldn't surprise me to see Rubio, Walker, and Bush all go down in flames at the hands of Ted Cruz.

[Torie]

All of the below is in the context that all the Pub polls show that what the Pubs really want is a winner. All else is secondary.

I share the sense that Walker and Bush will crash and burn, Cruz cannot cut it, because everybody knows he would be a General Election disaster, Rand is just too exotic and divisive, Rubio has not really displayed the discipline and gravitas he needs to for someone in his position, and I am beginning to have my doubts about him, Christie is so damaged that I would be amazed if he even runs, and most of the rest are jokes. So there is a huge vacuum out there. I don't know how Kasich will really perform under the klieg lights either, and whether he will convey the depth of knowledge, judgment and temperament that are what will really motivate swing voters, more than policy details, but I have been impressed with what little I have seen, I think his "Kempesque" message is well delivered, he's extremely likable and non threatening, so I sure hope that he gets in.

In the meantime, like some others, I have zero idea. This race is a riddle within a mystery wrapped in an enigma. Meanwhile, for Hillary, the antidote to all her travails, mostly self inflicted, is the state of the Pub race and candidates. At this rate, she will be POTUS even if she never campaigns or talks to the press prior to the election, or even bothers to show up and accept her nomination.

The state is of the political class in this country is just pathetic. Really.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I still ultimately think Bush is going to take it, but only because I can't see anyone else taking it. Though I also can't really see Bush taking it either.

[Bull Moose Base]

It's possible to have a nominee who doesn't win Iowa or NH but very rare. Bill Clinton did it but sort of picked up the momentum from NH anyway. Gingrich had a shot last time. And Iowa and NH both look wide open. But the likeliest scenario to me is either 1) Walker or Rubio wins Iowa and is well on their way (2) Huckabee or Cruz does then Walker, Bush, Rubio or Kasich wins NH and is frontrunner. Or (3) Cruz and Paul win IA and NH respectively. In the ensuing panic Romney gets drafted in and wins. Or the party unified behind the strongest establishment candidate left. The smart money is still on Walker. He's a good fit for Iowa, can argue that he's more conservative than anyone except Cruz or Jindal, but also has an electability argument. And 1 or even 10 dumb answers may not trip him up.

[King]

The state is of the political class in this country is just pathetic. Really.

I really feel like this whole decade has just been an inverse repeat of the 1980s.

1980 - Bad economy, GOP candidate who many never thought would be electable wins easily
1982 - Dems pick up a ton of seats in the House but can't get the Senate back
1984 - Dems have nobody good to run and the President gets an easy road by default
1986 - Democrats finally take back the Senate and think the New Deal era is back
1988 - Republicans settle on the runner up from 8 years ago; Democrats have a clown car of 11 candidates. Republican ends up winning convincingly

The Republicans even had the same demographic narrative: winning young boomers and losing old people.

[GLPman]

Sticking with Rubio, but who knows at this point.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's scary, but I'm starting to think Rubio now.

[bobloblaw]

I still ultimately think Bush is going to take it, but only because I can't see anyone else taking it. Though I also can't really see Bush taking it either.

You under estimate how much the GOP base hates Bush and is past the Bush family.


Liberals desperately want Bush not only because he is easy to defeat, but the Dem party is frightened of a GOP that has moved on from the Bush Presidency and policies. The left wants badly to wave the bloody shirt of Iraq for the next 20 years and the Great Recession. Moving beyond Bush makes it harder for them to do so.

They also want a GOP that essentially agrees with them on many issues as Bush does.

[The Other Castro]

Hey if you can take the easy route, might as well. Given the caliber of the Republican challengers though, pretty much every candidate provides said easy route.

[/]

Jebs will have the most $, and win over the moderates in the party...

[WVdemocrat]

Jeb or Rubio. I'm surprised how quickly "Walker-mentum" faded. He could still win it, but he really seems destined for 2nd place.