Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread
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  Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: May 15, 2015, 07:12:17 PM »

The Kentucky primaries will be held on May 19th, to choose the party nominees for governor and other statewide offices for the November 2015 elections.

The following primaries are contested:

GOP Agriculture Commissioner

Richard Heath
Ryan Quarles

GOP Attorney General

Michael Hogan
Whitney Westerfield

DEM Governor

Jack Conway
Geoff Young

GOP Governor

Matt Bevin
James Comer
Hal Heiner
Will Scott

DEM Secretary of State

Allison Lundergan Grimes (inc.)
Charles Lovett

DEM Treasurer

Neville Blakemore
Jim Glenn
Daniel Grossberg
Richard Henderson
Rick Nelson

GOP Treasurer

Allison Ball
Kenny Imes
Jon Larson

-----------------------------

I'll throw some numbers out to start this off:

DEM Governor

Jack Conway: 91%
Geoff Young: 9%

DEM Secretary of State

Allison Lundergan Grimes (inc.): 84%
Charles Lovett: 16%

GOP Attorney General

Michael Hogan: 54%
Whitney Westerfield: 46%

GOP Governor

Comer: 34%
Bevin: 31%
Heiner: 26%
Scott: 9%

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2015, 11:57:42 PM »

Only one I care about:

GOP Governor

Bevin: 36%
Comer: 31%
Heiner: 28%
Scott: 5%
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2015, 12:31:35 AM »

GOP Governor

Bevin - 34%
Comer - 30%
Heiner - 27%
Scott - 9%
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Flake
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2015, 12:32:20 AM »

GOP Agriculture Commissioner

Richard Heath: 53%
Ryan Quarles: 47%

GOP Attorney General

Michael Hogan: 48%
Whitney Westerfield: 52%

DEM Governor

Jack Conway: 69%
Geoff Young: 31%

GOP Governor

Matt Bevin: 32%
James Comer: 29%
Hal Heiner: 31%
Will Scott: 8%

DEM Secretary of State

Allison Lundergan Grimes (inc.): 65%
Charles Lovett: 35%

DEM Treasurer

Neville Blakemore: 17%
Jim Glenn: 23%
Daniel Grossberg: 10%
Richard Henderson: 21%
Rick Nelson: 18%

GOP Treasurer

Allison Ball: 41%
Kenny Imes: 29%
Jon Larson: 30%

tbh i'm just throwing numbers up and hoping they're accurate -- kind of like gravis
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2015, 10:28:06 AM »

Governor/Lieutenant Governor-Democrats

Jack Conway/Sannie Overly 78.79%
Geoff Young/Jonathan Masters 21.21%

Governor/Lieutenant Governor-Republicans

James Comer/Chris McDaniel 31.78%
Will Scott/Rodney Coffey 30.05%
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton 17.17%
Hal Heiner/K.C Crosbie 16%
Write-in/Other 5%

Attorney General-Republicans

Whitney Westerfield 50.9%
Michael Hogan 49.1%

Secretary of State-Democrats

Alison Lundergan Grimes 81%
Charles Lovett 18.7%
Write-in/Other 0.3%

Agriculture Commissioner- Republicans

Richard Heath 51.75%
Ryan Quarles 48.25%

Treasurer-Democrats

Richard Henderson 29%
James Glenn Jr. 23%
Daniel Grossberg 22%
Rick Nelson 19%
Neville Blakemore 7%

Treasurer-Republicans

Kenny Imes 40.5%
Allison Ball 36.7%
Jon Larson 16.2%
Write-in/Other 6.6%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2015, 10:34:59 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2015, 12:46:11 PM by maxwell »

Governor
38% Bevin
28% Heiner
25% Comer
9% Scott
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2015, 12:41:35 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2015, 12:44:01 PM by X »

GOP Agriculture Commissioner

Richard Heath - 45.62%
Ryan Quarles - 54.38%

GOP Attorney General

Michael Hogan - 39.12%
Whitney Westerfield - 60.88%

DEM Governor

Jack Conway - 73.24%
Geoff Young - 26.76

GOP Governor

Matt Bevin - 36.48%
James Comer 22.68%
Hal Heiner - 24.52%
Will Scott - 15.32%

DEM Secretary of State

Allison Lundergan Grimes (inc.) - 63.64%
Charles Lovett - 36.36%

DEM Treasurer

Neville Blakemore - 27.82%
Jim Glenn - 24.44%
Daniel Grossberg - 8.01%
Richard Henderson - 16.30%
Rick Nelson - 23.43%

GOP Treasurer

Allison Ball - 12.19%
Kenny Imes - 55.81%
Jon Larson - 32.00%

Governor
34% Bevin
25% Heiner
22% Comer
9% Scott

Those numbers don't add up to 100...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2015, 12:46:37 PM »

Thanks X, fixed it.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2015, 12:07:21 PM »

Poll Closings:

6 PM EST: Eastern Kentucky
7 PM EST: Western Kentucky

Results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Page_0519.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AOSHQDD will be covering the gubernatorial primaries, along with some local FL/PA races.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2015, 12:43:58 PM »

I bet Mitch McConnell will love Matt Bevin being the gubernatorial candidate.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2015, 12:54:28 PM »

If I had to guess, I'd say Bevin is most likely to win the primary.

He is just the sort of Tea Party establishment candidate who would beat the polls in the primary, then lose the general.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2015, 01:49:33 PM »

Who would be the best Republican candidate to beat Conway? Bevin?
Bevin is probably the most likely to lose.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2015, 01:49:52 PM »

Who would be the best Republican candidate to beat Conway? Bevin?

Probably Will Scott, who is trailing all the other Republicans.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2015, 04:10:25 PM »

Assuming all of the predictions above are not delusional, apparently the KY Pubs don't know, or don't care, that nominating anybody other than Heiner probably means the Dems hold the mansion. Whatever. Perhaps Conway is the best of the bunch for the job anyway.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2015, 04:51:55 PM »

Polls closing soon in Eastern Kentucky. Does anyone have a link to the county by county results?

http://datacenter.courier-journal.com/projects/2015-ky-primary-elections/
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2015, 04:53:08 PM »

Who would be the best Republican candidate to beat Conway? Bevin?
Bevin is probably the most likely to lose.

Nah. I would say Heiner is probably the most likely to win due to his money, but those domestic abuse accusations will cause problems for Comer in the general. Bevin's electability is underrated.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2015, 05:24:24 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2015, 05:35:13 PM by Wulfric »

Heath leading Quarles 55-45 for Agriculture Commissioner with 3 precincts in
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General with 4 precincts in
Grimes leading Lovett 72-28 for Sec. of State with 4 precincts in
Nelson leading Glenn 35-22 for Dem. Treasurer with 3 precincts in
Ball leading Larson 39-37 for GOP Treasurer with 3 precincts in
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2015, 05:26:06 PM »

Comer leading Heiner and Bevin 42%-27%-26%. Doing quite well so far.
Conway leading 80%-20%.
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« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2015, 05:34:20 PM »

Hal now in 2nd place lol.
Comer leads 39%-28%-27%.

Conway dominating with 82% of the vote.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2015, 05:34:42 PM »

Quarles leading Heath 53-47 for Agriculture Commissioner with 7 precincts in
Westerfield leading Hogan 52-48 for Attorney General with 10 precincts in
Grimes leading Lovett 74-26 for Sec. of State with 10 precincts in
Nelson leading Glenn 32-21 for Dem. Treasurer with 7 precincts in
Ball leading Larson 43-37 for GOP Treasurer with 7 precincts in

So much for KY being a fast counting state.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2015, 05:37:21 PM »

Quarles leading Heath 53-47 for Agriculture Commissioner with 7 precincts in
Westerfield leading Hogan 52-48 for Attorney General with 10 precincts in
Grimes leading Lovett 74-26 for Sec. of State with 10 precincts in
Nelson leading Glenn 32-21 for Dem. Treasurer with 7 precincts in
Ball leading Larson 43-37 for GOP Treasurer with 7 precincts in

So much for KY being a fast counting state.

They were quite fast in 2014. Surprised that it takes so long tonight... Still better than MS. Tongue

This is slower than 2014, but it wasn't incredibly fast during the first hour then either - just 7% of the vote came in during the first hour.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2015, 05:42:01 PM »

AOSHQDD is showing completely different numbers with the same number of precincts reporting... lol

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/pennsylvania-kentucky-jacksonville-fl/

AOSHQDD gets results by looking through county webpages and calling precinct officers, so sometimes their results come in a different order.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2015, 05:47:51 PM »

Finally, a full 1% of the vote is in!

Heath leading Quarles by 3 votes (!) for Agriculture Commissioner
Hogan leading Westerfield 52-48 for Attorney General
Grimes leading Lovett 71-29 for Sec. of State
Nelson leading Henderson 47-18 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 45-35 for GOP Treasurer

Western Kentucky closing in 13 minutes.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2015, 05:51:20 PM »

Coming in faster now....

Quarles leading Heath by 45 votes (!) for Agriculture Commissioner with 2% in
Hogan leading Westerfield 52-48 for Attorney General with 3% in
Grimes leading Lovett 74-26 for Sec. of State with 3% in
Nelson leading Henderson 42-18 for Dem. Treasurer with 3% in
Ball leading Larson 50-30 for GOP Treasurer with 2% in
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2015, 05:52:47 PM »

Bevin leading Heiner and Comer 34%-31%-26%. 3% in.
Conway leading 82.5%-17.5% This will be called at poll closing time obviously.
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