Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread

[Maxwell]

Bevin's lead is expanding, 35-30 over Heiner.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Bevin wins this, McConnell is going to be furious and Conway is going to be smiling broadly.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin leading Heiner and Comer 38%-29%-26%. 5% in.

[Flake]

http://www.wkyt.com/livestream

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5% is in:

Quarles leading Heath 53-47 for Agriculture Commissioner
Hogan leading Westerfield 52-48 for Attorney General
Grimes leading Lovett 75-25 for Sec. of State
Nelson leading Blakemore 37-18 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 49-30 for GOP Treasurer

Western KY now closing.

[MT Treasurer]

WOW 15% reporting!! That was fast!
Bevin leading Heiner and Comer 35%-34%-24%.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 57-43 for Agriculture Commissioner with 10% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 51-49 for Attorney General with 14% in
Grimes leading Lovett 78-22 for Sec. of State with 14% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 14% in
Ball leading Larson 48-34 for GOP Treasurer with 13% in

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Grimes wins Sec. of State 78-22 over Lovett with 16% in!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner with 15% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 51-49 for Attorney General with 16% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 26-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 16% in
Ball leading Larson 47-33 for GOP Treasurer with 16% in

[MT Treasurer]

16% in.
Bevin leading Heiner and Comer 34%-33%-25%.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin leads Heiner and Comer 35%-32%-26%.   21% reporting.
Looks very tough for Comer.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner with 20% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 51-49 for Attorney General with 21% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 26-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 21% in
Ball leading Larson 48-33 for GOP Treasurer with 20% in

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin so far outperforming in Eastern KY. Probably not enough for Comer to make up this difference.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

24% in:

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 29-22 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 48-32 for GOP Treasurer

[MT Treasurer]

24% in.
Bevin leading Heiner and Conway 36%-31%-26%.

[MT Treasurer]

38% reporting!

Bevin: 34.6%
Heiner: 32.7%
Comer: 25.3%

[Kevinstat]

So, in the second primary after the runoff provision used in 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 was gotten rid of (but with only a 40% threshold to avoid, which someone always did in each party, although they often hadn't before 1995), it looks fairly likely that no one breaks 40% and so there would have been a runoff under the old rules.

Am I correct that there is no runoff provision in Kentucky now?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 55-45 for Agriculture Commissioner with 36% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General with 38% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 26-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 36% in
Ball leading Larson 48-34 for GOP Treasurer with 36% in

[Torie]

38% reporting!

Bevin: 34.6%
Heiner: 32.7%
Comer: 25.3%

It's all about the relative percentages still out from the cities versus the countryside, in particular how much of Jefferson and Lexington counties are still not in.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, in the second primary after the runoff provision used in 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 was gotten rid of (but with only a 40% threshold to avoid, which someone always did in each party, although they often hadn't before 1995), it looks fairly likely that no one breaks 40% and so there would have been a runoff under the old rules.

Am I correct that there is no runoff provision in Kentucky now?

No runoff.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner with 42% in

43% in:

Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-34 for GOP Treasurer. Still no call.

[MT Treasurer]

38% reporting!

Bevin: 34.6%
Heiner: 32.7%
Comer: 25.3%

It's all about the relative percentages still out from the cities versus the countryside, in particular how much of Jefferson and Lexington counties are still not in.

61% of Jefferson has reported. 100% of Fayette has apparently reported. Looks very good for Bevin so far, Comer not doing as well as he should in Western Kentucky. Bevin outperforming in Eastern Kentucky.

[MT Treasurer]

43% reporting.
Bevin leading Heiner and Comer 35%-32%-26%.

[Kevinstat]

So, in the second primary after the runoff provision used in 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 was gotten rid of (but with only a 40% threshold to avoid, which someone always did in each party, although they often hadn't before 1995), it looks fairly likely that no one breaks 40% and so there would have been a runoff under the old rules.

Am I correct that there is no runoff provision in Kentucky now?

No runoff.

Thanks, Wulfric.  The way I wrote my first paragraph may have been confusing.  I'm pretty sure someone did get over 40% in each primary in 2011, not that it mattered.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

47% in:

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Ball leading Larson 47-33 for GOP Treasurer

48% in for Dem. Treasurer, Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24