Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Kentucky primaries will be held on May 19th, to choose the party nominees for governor and other statewide offices for the November 2015 elections.

The following primaries are contested:

GOP Agriculture Commissioner

Richard Heath
Ryan Quarles

GOP Attorney General

Michael Hogan
Whitney Westerfield

DEM Governor

Jack Conway
Geoff Young

GOP Governor

Matt Bevin
James Comer
Hal Heiner
Will Scott

DEM Secretary of State

Allison Lundergan Grimes (inc.)
Charles Lovett

DEM Treasurer

Neville Blakemore
Jim Glenn
Daniel Grossberg
Richard Henderson
Rick Nelson

GOP Treasurer

Allison Ball
Kenny Imes
Jon Larson

-----------------------------

I'll throw some numbers out to start this off:

DEM Governor

Jack Conway: 91%
Geoff Young: 9%

DEM Secretary of State

Allison Lundergan Grimes (inc.): 84%
Charles Lovett: 16%

GOP Attorney General

Michael Hogan: 54%
Whitney Westerfield: 46%

GOP Governor

Comer: 34%
Bevin: 31%
Heiner: 26%
Scott: 9%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Poll Closings:

6 PM EST: Eastern Kentucky
7 PM EST: Western Kentucky

Results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/KY_Page_0519.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AOSHQDD will be covering the gubernatorial primaries, along with some local FL/PA races.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Heath leading Quarles 55-45 for Agriculture Commissioner with 3 precincts in
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General with 4 precincts in
Grimes leading Lovett 72-28 for Sec. of State with 4 precincts in
Nelson leading Glenn 35-22 for Dem. Treasurer with 3 precincts in
Ball leading Larson 39-37 for GOP Treasurer with 3 precincts in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 53-47 for Agriculture Commissioner with 7 precincts in
Westerfield leading Hogan 52-48 for Attorney General with 10 precincts in
Grimes leading Lovett 74-26 for Sec. of State with 10 precincts in
Nelson leading Glenn 32-21 for Dem. Treasurer with 7 precincts in
Ball leading Larson 43-37 for GOP Treasurer with 7 precincts in

So much for KY being a fast counting state.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 53-47 for Agriculture Commissioner with 7 precincts in
Westerfield leading Hogan 52-48 for Attorney General with 10 precincts in
Grimes leading Lovett 74-26 for Sec. of State with 10 precincts in
Nelson leading Glenn 32-21 for Dem. Treasurer with 7 precincts in
Ball leading Larson 43-37 for GOP Treasurer with 7 precincts in

So much for KY being a fast counting state.

They were quite fast in 2014. Surprised that it takes so long tonight... Still better than MS.

This is slower than 2014, but it wasn't incredibly fast during the first hour then either - just 7% of the vote came in during the first hour.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AOSHQDD is showing completely different numbers with the same number of precincts reporting... lol

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/pennsylvania-kentucky-jacksonville-fl/

AOSHQDD gets results by looking through county webpages and calling precinct officers, so sometimes their results come in a different order.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Finally, a full 1% of the vote is in!

Heath leading Quarles by 3 votes (!) for Agriculture Commissioner
Hogan leading Westerfield 52-48 for Attorney General
Grimes leading Lovett 71-29 for Sec. of State
Nelson leading Henderson 47-18 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 45-35 for GOP Treasurer

Western Kentucky closing in 13 minutes.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Coming in faster now....

Quarles leading Heath by 45 votes (!) for Agriculture Commissioner with 2% in
Hogan leading Westerfield 52-48 for Attorney General with 3% in
Grimes leading Lovett 74-26 for Sec. of State with 3% in
Nelson leading Henderson 42-18 for Dem. Treasurer with 3% in
Ball leading Larson 50-30 for GOP Treasurer with 2% in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Bevin wins this, McConnell is going to be furious and Conway is going to be smiling broadly.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5% is in:

Quarles leading Heath 53-47 for Agriculture Commissioner
Hogan leading Westerfield 52-48 for Attorney General
Grimes leading Lovett 75-25 for Sec. of State
Nelson leading Blakemore 37-18 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 49-30 for GOP Treasurer

Western KY now closing.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 57-43 for Agriculture Commissioner with 10% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 51-49 for Attorney General with 14% in
Grimes leading Lovett 78-22 for Sec. of State with 14% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 14% in
Ball leading Larson 48-34 for GOP Treasurer with 13% in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Grimes wins Sec. of State 78-22 over Lovett with 16% in!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner with 15% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 51-49 for Attorney General with 16% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 26-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 16% in
Ball leading Larson 47-33 for GOP Treasurer with 16% in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner with 20% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 51-49 for Attorney General with 21% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 26-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 21% in
Ball leading Larson 48-33 for GOP Treasurer with 20% in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

24% in:

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 29-22 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 48-32 for GOP Treasurer

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 55-45 for Agriculture Commissioner with 36% in
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General with 38% in
Nelson leading Blakemore 26-24 for Dem. Treasurer with 36% in
Ball leading Larson 48-34 for GOP Treasurer with 36% in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, in the second primary after the runoff provision used in 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 was gotten rid of (but with only a 40% threshold to avoid, which someone always did in each party, although they often hadn't before 1995), it looks fairly likely that no one breaks 40% and so there would have been a runoff under the old rules.

Am I correct that there is no runoff provision in Kentucky now?

No runoff.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner with 42% in

43% in:

Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-34 for GOP Treasurer. Still no call.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

47% in:

Quarles leading Heath 54-46 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Ball leading Larson 47-33 for GOP Treasurer

48% in for Dem. Treasurer, Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

58% in:

Quarles leading Heath 52-48 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-33 for GOP Treasurer. Surprised this hasn't been called.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

63% in:

Quarles leading Heath 52-48 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-23 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-32 for GOP Treasurer

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

69% in:

Quarles leading Heath 52-48 for Agriculture Commissioner
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-24 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-32 for GOP Treasurer

68% in for Attorney General, Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

71% in for Agriculture Commissioner, Quarles leading Heath 52-48

72% in:

Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-23 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-32 for GOP Treasurer

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

80% in:

Quarles leading Heath 52-48 for Agriculture Commissioner
Westerfield leading Hogan 53-47 for Attorney General
Nelson leading Blakemore 27-23 for Dem. Treasurer
Ball leading Larson 47-32 for GOP. Treasurer

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Will Quarles be fine or still too early to tell?

Too early to tell.