Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread

[cinyc]

Assuming the rest of Western Kentucky votes the same way as the counties currently partially in, Bevin wins this easily.  Heiner is running a distant third there, behind Comer, who is a close second to Bevin.

[cinyc]

The largest county still fully out in the AP's count is McCracken (Paducah).  Comer won the few votes that have already reported (early vote?) 49-31.

I doubt it and the few other counties that are out are large enough to put Comer over the top, though.

[cinyc]

Still nothing from McCracken.  Think it gives the race to Comer.  Western KY = reverse NOVA?  Funny that the urban vote came in first!  

I wouldn't be so sure.  The other semi-urban Ohio River counties have tended to go to Bevin.  Even if McCracken is close to a tie, Comer could still pull it out when Cumberland and Ohio counties report, though.  He's heavily winning South Central Kentucky, where Cumberland County is.  Ohio County is in more marginal territory.

[cinyc]

I just heard that Comer is now leading by 30 votes.

With 99% in. 36 precincts to go.

Fully out:
Ohio County - 19
Ballard County - 13

Partially out:
Jefferson County (Louisville) - 12 (Comer a distant third)
Warren County - 5 (Comer leads)

[cinyc]

Based on what is outstanding... Comer probably has this.

AoSHQDD has much of what the AP considers out in, and Bevin ahead by about 500 votes with 4 precincts out, presumably in Jefferson.  Ohio County went Bevin.  Ballard County went Comer, but was too small to matter.

[cinyc]

BEVIN NOW LEADING BY roughly 100 VOTES!

With only 12 Jefferson County precincts outstanding.  Comer is getting crushed in the rest of the county.

[cinyc]

AoSHQDD has Bevin winning by 496 votes with all precincts reporting.

[cinyc]

AP is now all in, and has Bevin winning by 83.  AoSHQDD re-computed their numbers or something, and have Bevin winning by 80 er.. now 83, too.

[cinyc]

WTF AP? You add in 12 more precincts but leave the #GOPGOV vote totals exactly the same for Bevin and Comer?

They very well could have been inner-city Louisville precincts or empty precincts with zero votes in the Republican Primary.  Or that there were outstanding precincts could have been a mistake.  Both have happened before.

[cinyc]

The Kentucky State Board of Elections' website shows the same result as AP and AoSDDHQ - Bevin +83.  But they claim there are still precincts outstanding in Jefferson County (Louisville).

Edited to add: A quick check of the precincts outstanding shows that 1 vote was cast in all of them combined for the 2014 Republican Senate primary.