Predict the House Makeup After 2016 (user search)
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  Predict the House Makeup After 2016 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict the House Makeup After 2016  (Read 2631 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,664
United States


« on: May 15, 2015, 09:50:17 PM »

229 R - 206 D
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,664
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2015, 02:39:21 PM »


Well that's being imaginative
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,664
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2015, 08:57:22 PM »

the democrats need to throw everything they've got at the HOR. I had always thought the 230-odd seats the republicans held after 1994 should be a highwater mark. There's no reason the dems shouldn't be holding as many seats as they did after 1994.

I'm starting to think that the DCCC is turning into the way the RNCC was under Guy Vanderjagt.


Yeah.  Just seeing what happened in NY-11 confirms that thinking.  You don't leave a seat that your party won in the last Presidential election basically uncontested. 

If Dems can't win some key governorships in 2018 and force fair maps in PA, MI, WI, VA, and OH in 2021, next decade will be just like this one for Dems in the House.

This all goes back to the DNC's decision under Obama in 2009 to abandon focus on the grassroots level and simply turn the organization into an Obama reelection organization.  This led to Democrats not having any support at the grassroots level and they lost many state legislative chambers that they should have been able to hold even in 2010.

It seems like a lot of Dems in Washington are OK being a White House only party like the Republicans were from 1968-1992.  It seems to suit them.just fine.

Except they literally did leave a seat they won uncontested in Florida.

They sure did.

Winning Congress might be better then winning then winning the White House if you have the right leaders in congress. For example Republicans held the White House 20-24 years from 1968-1992 and had total controll for 6 years from 2000-2006. So what was the time period that most conservative was it the presidency of Reagan who got elected both times with landslides nope. It was from 1994-2000 after the 1994 Republican Revolution and they passed Welfare Reform, Shrunk the Government(Even Reagan couldnt do that) , Cut Capital Gains Taxes, More Deregulation then ever(Good until 1998 bad after that though). The Democrats might need to lose in 2016 or in 2020 and need to find their own Newt Gingrich to steer the country to the left.

The 1994 election was a realignment election though, it was when social/southern conservatives were freaked out by Bill Clinton being leftwing and having majorities in both chambers.   They started voting Republican for Congress and not just the Presidency.  

The Democrats don't really have any group like that on the Republican side that will switch over.    
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