When will the USA have the first millenial (Y) president?

[buritobr]

Millenials (or Generation Y) are the ones born since 1980.

Legally, they can run for president for the first time in 2016.
But they have own income (not depending from the parents') late, they get married late (if they get married), they have children late (if they have), they buy a house late. So, will they have a political career late?

[Skill and Chance]

Probably 2040 or so.

[Free Bird]

Probably 2040 or so.

[Ebsy]

Not soon enough.

[H. Ross Peron]

2030s.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Probably 2032 will have someone who was born in the early 1980's.

[SingingAnalyst]

Probably 2028. Clinton will probably serve from 2017-2021, a Republican Gen-Xer from 2021-2029, then a Millennial Dem will get elected.

I thought millennials were those born 1982 and later (and thus reaching the age of majority in 2000 or later). That barely excludes Chelsea Clinton and Jenna and Barbara P. Bush, who were born in 1981 (and who I would include as Gen-Xers), but still allows those born in the first 20 days of 1982 to be sworn in Jan. 20, 2017.

[bobloblaw]

Leave it to the narcissism of the Millennials to ask this question when we havent had an X-er yet.


BTW the Silent Generation 1928-45, never elected a President. We went straight from Greatest Generation to Baby Boomer in 1992

[Cryptic]

Probably somewhere in the range of 2032-2040.

[SingingAnalyst]

Leave it to the narcissism of the Millennials to ask this question when we havent had an X-er yet.


BTW the Silent Generation 1928-45, never elected a President. We went straight from Greatest Generation to Baby Boomer in 1992

From 1933-1961 we had a President born 1882-1890.
We never had a President born 1891-1907.
From 1961-1993 we had a President born 1908-1924.
We never had a President born 1925-1945.
Since 1993 we have had a President born in 1946 or 1961.

[pbrower2a]

Generations (Howe and Strauss) and the age of the generations when their first member became President:

Awakening (1701-1724) NEVER
Liberty (1725-1742) 65 -- Washington, 1789
Republican (1743-1766) 58 -- Jefferson, 1801
Compromise (1767-1791) 58 -- J Q Adams, 1825
Transcendental (1792-1821) 62 -- Fillmore, 1850
Gilded (1822-1842) 47 -- Grant, 1867
Progressive (1843-1859) 54 -- McKinley, 1897 
Missionary (1860-1882) 61 -- Harding, 1921
Lost (1883-1900) 62 -- Truman, 1945
GI (1901-1924) 60 -- Kennedy, 1961
Silent (1925-1942) -- probably never, 90 or 91 if something were to happen to Barack Obama
Boom (1943-1960) 50 -- Clinton, 1993 
X (1961-1981) 48 -- Obama, 2009

No member of the Millennial Generation will be eligible to be President or Vice-President until 2017... and that would be someone born in early-to-middle January 1982. 

Minimum 47 in history, maximum 65 for the generation (ignoring the Awakening Generation of Benjamin Franklin and almost certainly the Silent Generation)

1982 + 47 = 2029
1982 + 65 = 2047

...wins the Presidency in 2028, minimum; 2044 maximum. 

[The Mikado]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

[Yelnoc]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

[The Mikado]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

Of course it's bull, it always has been. Note that the traditional definition of Baby Boomer is something like 1946-1964, when someone born after 1956 was too old to possibly be drafted for Vietnam and would have been a small child at the assassination of Kennedy etc.

[bobloblaw]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

Of course it's bull, it always has been. Note that the traditional definition of Baby Boomer is something like 1946-1964, when someone born after 1956 was too old to possibly be drafted for Vietnam and would have been a small child at the assassination of Kennedy etc.

Those born 1946-55 and 1955-64 even though boomers have a very different experience growing up. Those born 1960 to 64, are more like Gen-xers and those Xers born after 1977 are more like Millennials.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Julian Castro if he is put on ticket with Hillary; either in 2020 or 2024 will be first president born after 1970. George P Bush may run, too.

[NHI]

late 2020s or 2030s

[Mr. Smith]

Generations (Howe and Strauss) and the age of the generations when their first member became President:

Awakening (1701-1724) NEVER
Liberty (1725-1742) 65 -- Washington, 1789
Republican (1743-1766) 58 -- Jefferson, 1801
Compromise (1767-1791) 58 -- J Q Adams, 1825
Transcendental (1792-1821) 62 -- Fillmore, 1850
Gilded (1822-1842) 47 -- Grant, 1867
Progressive (1843-1859) 54 -- McKinley, 1897 
Missionary (1860-1882) 61 -- Harding, 1921
Lost (1883-1900) 62 -- Truman, 1945
GI (1901-1924) 60 -- Kennedy, 1961
Silent (1925-1942) -- probably never, 90 or 91 if something were to happen to Barack Obama
Boom (1943-1960) 50 -- Clinton, 1993 
X (1961-1981) 48 -- Obama, 2009

No member of the Millennial Generation will be eligible to be President or Vice-President until 2017... and that would be someone born in early-to-middle January 1982. 

Minimum 47 in history, maximum 65 for the generation (ignoring the Awakening Generation of Benjamin Franklin and almost certainly the Silent Generation)

1982 + 47 = 2029
1982 + 65 = 2047

...wins the Presidency in 2028, minimum; 2044 maximum. 

So what do you call Jimmy Carter then? Born 1924, President in 1977.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

Not necessarily, a 13-year old in 2008 would certainly know about the 2008 campaign and his or her parents may have had an effect. Besides, elections are always big news regardless of age.

[Yelnoc]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

Not necessarily, a 13-year old in 2008 would certainly know about the 2008 campaign and his or her parents may have had an effect. Besides, elections are always big news regardless of age.

Maybe Atlas freaks did, but I was born in '95, post here, and didn't give a sh**t about politics in eighth grade. I can assure you nobody I know in real life was "following the election."

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Generations (Howe and Strauss) and the age of the generations when their first member became President:

Awakening (1701-1724) NEVER
Liberty (1725-1742) 65 -- Washington, 1789
Republican (1743-1766) 58 -- Jefferson, 1801
Compromise (1767-1791) 58 -- J Q Adams, 1825
Transcendental (1792-1821) 62 -- Fillmore, 1850
Gilded (1822-1842) 47 -- Grant, 1867
Progressive (1843-1859) 54 -- McKinley, 1897 
Missionary (1860-1882) 61 -- Harding, 1921
Lost (1883-1900) 62 -- Truman, 1945
GI (1901-1924) 60 -- Kennedy, 1961
Silent (1925-1942) -- probably never, 90 or 91 if something were to happen to Barack Obama
Boom (1943-1960) 50 -- Clinton, 1993 
X (1961-1981) 48 -- Obama, 2009

No member of the Millennial Generation will be eligible to be President or Vice-President until 2017... and that would be someone born in early-to-middle January 1982. 

Minimum 47 in history, maximum 65 for the generation (ignoring the Awakening Generation of Benjamin Franklin and almost certainly the Silent Generation)

1982 + 47 = 2029
1982 + 65 = 2047

...wins the Presidency in 2028, minimum; 2044 maximum. 

The first millennial will be eligible Janurary 1, 2016. The first Millennials were born in 1981 not 1982.

[Indy Texas]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

Not necessarily, a 13-year old in 2008 would certainly know about the 2008 campaign and his or her parents may have had an effect. Besides, elections are always big news regardless of age.

Atlas People, you don't get it. Think of a sport that doesn't interest you and that you don't follow. That is how most people feel about politics and elections. Other than Election Day and blurbs on the news that they may not even fully listen to, they don't pay attention or care. And I'm talking about the adults. There are 13 year olds who do not know who the candidates of the most recent presidential election were.

[Yelnoc]

I love how everyone has a different definition for what a Millennial is.

My favorite and the one I hear the most is something like 1982-1998 births.

The idea that any span of births crossing the 80s and 90s could be a culturally coherent generation is bullsh[inks]. Consider, someone born in 1985 was 16 during 9/11, old enough to understand what it was. Someone born in 1995 was 6, and wouldn't become politically aware until well after the Iraq War; whereas the '85 kid might well have been deployed to Iraq. The 1995 kid wasn't old enough to care about Obama, while the '85 kid put her hopes and dreams on the big O. The '85 kid graduated college into a recession, and feels cheated. The '95 kid grew up in the "new normal" sh[inks] economy, and knows full well that his degree won't land him a job out of college.

Our experiences are completely different. Generation theory only works if the generations are like 4-8 years long. I think categorizing political generations by who was president when they graduated high school is a more interesting exercise. "Millennials" break down like this (using Strouss-Howe's age range iirc):

1980-82: Clinton Generation
1983-90: W. Bush Generation
1991-98: Obama Generation
1999-04: "Next" Generation

Not necessarily, a 13-year old in 2008 would certainly know about the 2008 campaign and his or her parents may have had an effect. Besides, elections are always big news regardless of age.

Atlas People, you don't get it. Think of a sport that doesn't interest you and that you don't follow. That is how most people feel about politics and elections. Other than Election Day and blurbs on the news that they may not even fully listen to, they don't pay attention or care. And I'm talking about the adults. There are 13 year olds who do not know who the candidates of the most recent presidential election were.

And rightfully so. My god, why would anyone want an 10 year old to know about Mitt Romney? That's obscene.

[TDAS04]

Probably not until at least 2037.

[Del Tachi]

X'ers suck so we'll probably get one sometime in the time frame of 2028-36.