2016 Presidential Predictions (General)

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North Carolina has flipped to Clinton in the aggregate prediction.

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What the heck, I'll post mine.

There are several states that are somewhere between ratings:
Between Safe R and Likely R: AK, IN, KS, MT, NE-01, SD, TX
Between Likely R and Lean R: MO
Between Toss-Up and Lean D: FL, NC, OH
Between Lean D and Likely D: ME-02
Between Likely D and Safe D: MI, MN

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FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up
ME-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NC: Lean D -> Toss-Up
PA: Likely D -> Lean D

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AK: Likely R -> Safe R
AZ: Toss-Up -> Lean R
CO: Likely D -> Lean D
IN: Likely R -> Safe R
ME-02: Lean D -> Toss-Up
MT: Likely R -> Safe R
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
WI: Likely D -> Lean D

NV: Likely D -> Titanium R, since demographics, voting history, and past polling results are irrelevant. Trump's casino resort machines and uneducateds are all that matter. He'll win in a landslide, and take Heck with him.

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^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.

I've explained my reasoning several times, and I'm guessing most people on this forum don't want to hear it again. Go ahead and believe that NV is a Toss-Up if you like, but if it doesn't end up close on election day, many people on this forum are going to have to eat a healthy dose of humble pie.

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^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.

I've explained my reasoning several times, and I'm guessing most people on this forum don't want to hear it again. Go ahead and believe that NV is a Toss-Up if you like, but if it doesn't end up close on election day, many people on this forum are going to have to eat a healthy dose of humble pie.

But what if it DOES end up close? Will you apologize then?

Apologize for what? I didn't realize wrong predictions merited apologies. If it's somehow close (and the PV is close too,) then I'll admit that, at least for the time being, it is a swing state. Looking at the math, though, Trump would have to win white voters by at least a 2:1 margin (it was already 56-43 Romney in 2012), and probably win nearly 75% of white men (considering that the gender gap will be larger this year.) That's obviously not going to happen...

Clearly his Casinoresortmachine™ will allow him to win 93% of white voters.

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Gonna be a bit bold with my ratings.

CO: Lean D -> Likely D
FL: Toss-Up -> Lean D
MI: Likely D -> Safe D
MN: Likely D -> Safe D
MO: Likely R -> Safe R
VA: Likely D -> Safe D
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

(NV: Titanium R -> "Likely" D)

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Allowing for the possibility of Trump completely imploding, without assuming it to be likely. Several previously safe states for Trump are now likely, other changes:

AZ: Lean R -> Toss-Up
NH: Likely D -> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up -> Lean D
WI: Likely D -> Safe D

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^I highly doubt Trump is in any trouble in Idaho. 25% Mormon is not the same as 60% Mormon.

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Barring something extreme, Clinton has this.

AK: Likely R -> Lean R
CO: Likely D -> Safe D
FL: Lean D -> Likely D
GA: Lean R -> Toss-Up
NV: Likely D -> Safe D (should have done this a long time ago)
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean D
PA: Likely D -> Safe D
UT: Likely R -> Toss-Up

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Hillary's still massively favored, but the odds of a landslide are approaching nil.

FL: Likely D -> Lean D
ME-02: Toss-Up -> Lean D
MO: Lean R -> Likely R
MT: Likely R -> Safe R
NE-01: Likely R -> Safe R
ND: Likely R -> Safe R
OH: Lean D -> Toss-Up
SD: Likely R -> Safe R

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Some tightening, but Hillary will almost certainly be okay. Not many Ohio polls, assuming we don't get anything more, I'll tilt it to Trump.