2016 Presidential Predictions (General)

[Senator-elect Spark]

State Ratings

Clinton vs Trump

Safe D: CA, WA, NM, HI, NY, MA, IL, MD, DE, VT, CT, RI, ME
Likely D: MN, OR, NJ
Lean D: WI, MI, PA, NH, CO, VA
Toss-Up: NV, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA, NE-02, NC, ME-02, IA, FL
Likely R: MO, UT, TX, SD, KS, SC, MT, ND, NE-01
Safe R: AK, ID, WY, OK, LA, AR, AL, TN, KY, WV, IN, MS

Safe D: 166 EVs
Likely D: 31 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs
Lean R: 79 EVs
Likely R: 55 EVs
Safe R: 108 EVs

Democratic: 272 EVs
Republican: 242 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs

Popular Vote Prediction:

Clinton: 47.6%
Trump: 48.2%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 0.2%
Other: 0.0%

Overall Rating: Toss-up (bellwether: PA or IA)

Update 7/9- New Ratings

VA = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss=up

Update 7/11 - New Ratings

NV = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/13 - New Ratings

AZ = Lean R --> Likely R
IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Toss-up --> Lean R
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
CO = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/18 - New Ratings

IA = Lean R --> Toss-up
PA = Lean R --> Toss-up
NH = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 7/22 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Lean D --> Likely D

Update 7/26 - New Ratings

NH = Lean D --> Toss-up
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
VA = Likely D --> Safe D
OR = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 7/27 - New Ratings

NH = Toss-up --> Lean R
OR = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 7/30 - New Ratings

PA = Toss-up --> Lean D
OR = Lean D --> Toss-up
NH = Lean R --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
VA = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 8/1 - New Ratings

UT = Likely R --> Safe R
OR = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH= Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02= Toss-up --> Lean R
MI = Lean D --> Toss-up
WA = Safe D --> Likely D
PA = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D

Update 8/3 - New Ratings

UT = Safe R --> Likely R
MS = Safe R --> Likely R
MN = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Toss-up --> Lean D
PA = Toss-up --> Likely D
NH = Lean R --> Lean D
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NV = Lean R --> Toss-up
NC = Lean R --> Toss-up
OH = Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/4 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 8/5 - New Ratings

NC = Lean R --> Lean D
AZ = Lean R --> Toss-up
GA = Likely R --> Toss-up
UT = Likely R --> Lean R
FL = Lean R --> Toss-up
IA = Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/8 - New Ratings

AZ = Toss-up --> Lean R
GA = Toss-up --> Lean R
NC = Lean D --> Toss-up

Update 8/12 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R
TX = Safe R --> Likely R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
OR = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Lean D --> Likely D
WI = Lean D --> Likely D
WA = Likely D --> Safe D


Update 8/15 - New Ratings

KS - Safe R --> Likely R
SC - Safe R --> Likely R
NE-02 - Likely R --> Lean R
OR - Likely D --> Safe D
MN - Likely D --> Safe D
MO - Likely R --> Lean R
NH - Lean D --> Likely D
SD - Safe R --> Likely R
NC - Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/18 - New Ratings

MS = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Safe R --> Likely R
MT = Safe R --> Likely R
NC = Toss-up --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean D
NE-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NE-01 = Safe R --> Likely R

Update 8/21 - New Ratings

NE-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
KS = Likely R --> Safe R
MT = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Likely R --> Safe R
SD = Likely R --> Safe R
NC = Lean D --> Lean R
OR = Safe D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Safe D --> Likely D
NE-01 = Lean R --> Likely R
MI = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D

Update 9/2 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Lean D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Likely D --> Toss-up
MO = Lean R --> Likely R
NE-02 = Lean R --> Likely R
UT = Likely R --> Lean R

Update 9/8 - New Ratings

CO = Likely D --> Lean D
VA = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
NJ = Safe D --> Likely D