Who was winning in may the year before each election since 1960
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  Who was winning in may the year before each election since 1960
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Author Topic: Who was winning in may the year before each election since 1960  (Read 2699 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: May 16, 2015, 02:30:37 PM »
« edited: May 16, 2015, 06:41:22 PM by Computer09 »

This Is what I think

May 1963- JFK in a landslide over any Republican candidate
May 1967- George Romney taking down LBJ
May 1971- Nixon barely winning reelection
May 1975- Jackson or Brown beats Ford in a landslide
May 1979- Reagan or Kennedy(Tossup) (Carter approval were in the low 30s and until the Iran hostages Kennedy was consistently polling ahead of Carter)
May 1983- Reagan in a close race over Mondale
May 1987- Hart over Bush
May 1991- Bush in a landslide against any democrat
May 1995- Dole over Clinton(Clinton's approval were low)
May 1999- Gore over Bush decisively(Clinton's approval were skyhig and GOP were low)
May 2003- Bush in a landslide against any democrat(Iraq was thought to be won)
May 2007- Hillary in a close race over Guiliani
May 2011- Obama over Romeny
May 2015- Hillary

Looks like they were wrong in 1967, 1971(Mcgovern won nomination and Nixon won in landslide), 1975( Carter won the nomination and it wasnt a landslide), 1979(carter beat kennedy), 1983 kinda wrong( Reagan won in a landslide),1987( Bush Won and Hart didnt win the nomination), 1991(Bush lost), 1995( Clinton won), 1999(Bush won), 2003 kinda wrong (Bush didnt win in a landslide), 2007(Obama beat Hillary), and right in 2011.

So Hillary isnt inevitable, polls this early are meaningless.


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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2015, 03:24:27 PM »

May 2015 - Hillary in an inevitable landslide ....
B-b-b-b-but she will be the exception to the rule, just because she is so dominating and inevitable Wink
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2015, 03:54:29 PM »

This Is what I think

May 1963- JFK in a landslide over any Republican candidate
May 1967- George Romney taking down LBJ
May 1971- Nixon barely winning reelection
May 1975- Jackson or Ford beats Ford in a landslide
May 1979- Reagan or Kennedy(Tossup) (Carter approval were in the low 30s and until the Iran hostages Kennedy was consistently polling ahead of Carter)
May 1983- Reagan in a close race over Mondale
May 1987- Hart over Bush
May 1991- Bush in a landslide against any democrat
May 1995- Dole over Clinton(Clinton's approval were low)
May 1999- Gore over Bush decisively(Clinton's approval were skyhig and GOP were low)
May 2003- Bush in a landslide against any democrat(Iraq was thought to be won)
May 2007- Hillary in a close race over Guiliani
May 2011- Obama over Romeny
May 2015- Hillary



I agree with you for the most part. I seem to remember that the consensus in 2011 was that Obama would get defeated in a landslide by Romney, as the economy was still mediocre at the time.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2015, 06:35:27 PM »

So, I couldn't find May 1999 polling. But a June 2000 Gallup report says "Although Bush’s lead has fallen substantially from double digits to single digits, he has nevertheless held the lead over Gore in every Gallup survey from the first time Gallup tested his candidacy in May 1998. "

http://www.gallup.com/poll/9898/2000-Presidential-Election-MidYear-Gallup-Report.aspx

CNN reported in early June 1999 Bush lead 56-43, saying it was in part "because he is not Gore."

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/06/08/poll/

So, Bush clearly was leading in May 1999. In fact, he lead without pause from the impeachment trial to the 2000 Democratic convention!

I know Ford was trailing every Democrat they paired him with in May 1975, but I don't think they paired him with Scoop Jackson.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2015, 09:03:36 PM »

Muskie was narrowly ahead of Nixon in '71, why else do you think those Canuck Letters were made and dispersed?
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2015, 10:52:00 PM »

1975--I don't think that Jerry Brown would have been considered as a serious candidate in May 1975 (he was only 4 months into his job as Governor of California).  He did come on strong late in the 1976 primary campaign and beat Carter in several primaries to the end.

1979--Ted Kennedy was running anywhere from 30-40 points ahead of Carter at that time and consistently held substantial leads until the start of the hostage crisis. 

1999--Bush was anointed early by the establishment, making McCain the outsider.  Polls were largely placing Bush ahead of Gore all the way into summer 2000--even though Clinton was personally popular and the economy was running quite strong in early 1999.   I suppose the reasons for this was because of Bush's strength in the Republican Party at that time plus voter fatigue after 8 years of Democratic rule.   
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2015, 11:21:29 PM »

For '68, I think LBJ's reelection (obviously by a much smaller margin than '64) was assumed until the Tet Offensive.

For '80, I think Carter's reelection was assumed until the hostage crisis. Remember how rare it is for a party to lose the WH after just one term.

For '96, I think a close race was assumed. I know there were some close polls at this time, but did Dole ever really lead Clinton?

For '00, uh....no. Gore didn't close the gap with Bush until the general election campaign started. The Lewinsky scandal hurt congressional Republicans (which is why they were trailing in the generic ballot), but it was helping them in their campaign to retake the WH.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2015, 10:57:11 AM »

This Is what I think

May 1963- JFK in a landslide over any Republican candidate
May 1967- George Romney taking down LBJ
May 1971- Nixon barely winning reelection
May 1975- Jackson or Brown beats Ford in a landslide
May 1979- Reagan or Kennedy(Tossup) (Carter approval were in the low 30s and until the Iran hostages Kennedy was consistently polling ahead of Carter)
May 1983- Reagan in a close race over Mondale
May 1987- Hart over Bush
May 1991- Bush in a landslide against any democrat
May 1995- Dole over Clinton(Clinton's approval were low)
May 1999- Gore over Bush decisively(Clinton's approval were skyhig and GOP were low)
May 2003- Bush in a landslide against any democrat(Iraq was thought to be won)
May 2007- Hillary in a close race over Guiliani
May 2011- Obama over Romeny
May 2015- Hillary

Looks like they were wrong in 1967, 1971(Mcgovern won nomination and Nixon won in landslide), 1975( Carter won the nomination and it wasnt a landslide), 1979(carter beat kennedy), 1983 kinda wrong( Reagan won in a landslide),1987( Bush Won and Hart didnt win the nomination), 1991(Bush lost), 1995( Clinton won), 1999(Bush won), 2003 kinda wrong (Bush didnt win in a landslide), 2007(Obama beat Hillary), and right in 2011.

So Hillary isnt inevitable, polls this early are meaningless.




Mostly agree.

But JFK want polling that well in May 1963. Hence the reason he was in Dallas.
In May 1967, LBJ was doing ok. It was the Tet Offensive and riots in 67-68, that hurt the Dems.
In May 1979, Carter beat just about everyone except maybe Bush or Baker.
In May 1999, Gore was polling poorly. Gore was never more than slightly favored.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2015, 10:58:12 AM »

This Is what I think

May 1963- JFK in a landslide over any Republican candidate
May 1967- George Romney taking down LBJ
May 1971- Nixon barely winning reelection
May 1975- Jackson or Brown beats Ford in a landslide
May 1979- Reagan or Kennedy(Tossup) (Carter approval were in the low 30s and until the Iran hostages Kennedy was consistently polling ahead of Carter)
May 1983- Reagan in a close race over Mondale
May 1987- Hart over Bush
May 1991- Bush in a landslide against any democrat
May 1995- Dole over Clinton(Clinton's approval were low)
May 1999- Gore over Bush decisively(Clinton's approval were skyhig and GOP were low)
May 2003- Bush in a landslide against any democrat(Iraq was thought to be won)
May 2007- Hillary in a close race over Guiliani
May 2011- Obama over Romeny
May 2015- Hillary

Looks like they were wrong in 1967, 1971(Mcgovern won nomination and Nixon won in landslide), 1975( Carter won the nomination and it wasnt a landslide), 1979(carter beat kennedy), 1983 kinda wrong( Reagan won in a landslide),1987( Bush Won and Hart didnt win the nomination), 1991(Bush lost), 1995( Clinton won), 1999(Bush won), 2003 kinda wrong (Bush didnt win in a landslide), 2007(Obama beat Hillary), and right in 2011.

So Hillary isnt inevitable, polls this early are meaningless.




Mostly agree.

But JFK wasnt polling that well in May 1963. Hence the reason he was in Dallas.
In May 1967, LBJ was doing ok. It was the Tet Offensive and riots in 67-68, that hurt the Dems.
In May 1979, Carter beat just about everyone except maybe Bush or Baker.
In May 1999, Gore was polling poorly. Gore was never more than slightly favored.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2015, 04:42:10 PM »

Not that I think early polls are definitive, but one can easily make the case that increased polarization has increased their value. I strongly doubt we're going to be seeing any 20 point swings within a few months in the modern era.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2015, 04:55:22 PM »

Not that I think early polls are definitive, but one can easily make the case that increased polarization has increased their value. I strongly doubt we're going to be seeing any 20 point swings within a few months in the modern era.
Which is why Hillary Clinton became President in 2008.

I don't get your point. The deep polarization mainly took root with Obama's win in 2008. Just look how many 2007/2008 polls showed McCain winning Kerry states and Hillary winning Bush states.

Unless you're referring to the 20 point swing, which is obviously much different in a primary as opposed to a general...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2015, 05:56:36 PM »

Not that I think early polls are definitive, but one can easily make the case that increased polarization has increased their value. I strongly doubt we're going to be seeing any 20 point swings within a few months in the modern era.
Which is why Hillary Clinton became President in 2008.

I don't get your point. The deep polarization mainly took root with Obama's win in 2008. Just look how many 2007/2008 polls showed McCain winning Kerry states and Hillary winning Bush states.

Unless you're referring to the 20 point swing, which is obviously much different in a primary as opposed to a general...
So your sample size for your claim is basically one election? 2012?

So you think the electoral map and political coalitions are going to change radically in 2016? Or have a strong chance of doing so?
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buritobr
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2015, 07:22:27 PM »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/9898/2000-presidential-election-midyear-gallup-report.aspx

Gallup August 16-18th, 1999
Bush 55%, Gore 40%

No poll before
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Vosem
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2015, 04:09:34 PM »

May 1963 -- Goldwater was the favorite to become the Republican nominee. I don't know if polls were taken this early, but while JFK was reasonably popular, he had his detractors, and I think conventional wisdom was a narrow JFK win over Goldwater. Also, I doubt Goldwater was doing too well in the South before the CRA passed; this one ended up looking completely different.

May 1967 -- Yeah, you hit the dot. George Romney was the favorite to become the Republican candidate before Nixon's re-emergence, and LBJ was very unpopular. He would probably have led any national polling conducted by a great deal. I don't know what the South was thinking before the emergence of Wallace's candidacy, because neither Romney nor LBJ appealed to them much.

May 1971 -- Muskie was narrowly defeating Nixon. This one was totally off.

May 1975 -- There was no clear favorite for the Democratic nomination; Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall were probably best-placed in early polling; the Wikipedia article mentions that Udall led in national primary polling early in the race but had declined by the time Iowa came around, so maybe Udall was in the lead at this point. Any Democrat would be crushing Ford by double-digits. This was before any clear primary challenge to Ford had emerged.

May 1979 -- No Democratic challenger had emerged yet to Carter; Kennedy did not begin running until the fall. Ronald Reagan was the overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination, but he was perceived as somewhat extremist and may not have been leading Carter by all that much in polling, though he was probably ahead. This one actually ended up looking decently like early polling in the end.

May 1983 -- This was one of the low points of Reagan's presidency; he was under 40% approval. Mondale was the early odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination, and he was probably leading Reagan in national polling. The two candidates were predicted correctly, but the result was totally off.

May 1987 -- Gary Hart and George Bush were overwhelming favorites for their respective nominations, and Democrats led in national polling. This one didn't look much like it was expected to.

May 1991 -- Bush was overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly popular. Mario Cuomo was the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination, with only much worse known, basically minor candidates having declared at this point; Bush was leading him in national polling by double-digits. This was before Ross Perot emerged. The race did not look much like this at the end.

May 1995 -- Although Bob Dole was expected to run, the favorite for the Republican nomination, still expected to run at this point, was Colin Powell. Clinton was yet to recover from the '94 drubbing at this point and Powell probably led him by double-digits in national polling.

May 1999 -- Evidence has been presented here that Bush led Gore by double-digits. The candidates were predicted correctly; the result, not so much.

May 2003 -- There was no clear favorite for the Democratic nomination before Howard Dean's surge during the summer, and Clark only became interested later on. In the spring, Edwards led in fundraising, just ahead of Kerry; Gephardt led in Iowa, just ahead of Kerry; and Kerry had a large lead in New Hampshire. Kerry was probably seen as the likeliest candidate in May 2003, but this was at a peak of Bush's presidency and he had a large lead. The candidates were predicted correctly; the result, not so much.

May 2007 -- Rudy Giuliani vs. Hillary Clinton was seen as being very likely, with Giuliani defying Bush's already-bad approval ratings to lead Clinton in national polling narrowly. This one ended up looking totally different.

May 2011 -- Obama had basically recovered from the 2010 debacle (his approvals actually surged in May 2011 due to the strike on the bin Laden compound), and polling showed him beating Romney in a decently close race. This one actually did end up looking like early polling.

May 2015 -- No particularly clear favorite for the Republican nomination; Jeb Bush seems to lead in national polling and fundraising, but is doing poorly in state-level polling. Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination (again), and is doing very well in national polling this time against Republican candidates. Result: ??

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2015, 07:16:52 PM »

For '68, I think LBJ's reelection (obviously by a much smaller margin than '64) was assumed until the Tet Offensive.

For '80, I think Carter's reelection was assumed until the hostage crisis. Remember how rare it is for a party to lose the WH after just one term.

For '96, I think a close race was assumed. I know there were some close polls at this time, but did Dole ever really lead Clinton?

For '00, uh....no. Gore didn't close the gap with Bush until the general election campaign started. The Lewinsky scandal hurt congressional Republicans (which is why they were trailing in the generic ballot), but it was helping them in their campaign to retake the WH.


Actually Carter approval was 29% before the Hostage crises and it skyrocketed to 63% after the hostages and stayed high until March April 1980 when Carter had already taken down Kennedy
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2016, 02:58:25 AM »

Looks like this year was totally off
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bagelman
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« Reply #16 on: December 14, 2016, 07:28:53 PM »


well so was the day before
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2016, 01:48:54 PM »

I actually seem to recall Gore losing to most generic GOP candidates by small to Hugh single digits in early polls.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2022, 12:18:33 AM »

May 2019- Biden over Trump narrowly IIRC, so the polls were right.
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dw93
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« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2022, 09:01:37 PM »

May 1963: Kennedy decisively beats Goldwater
May 1967: Romney, Rockefeller, or Nixon narrowly beat LBJ
May 1971: Toss up, tilt Muskie narrowly beating Nixon
May 1975: Jackson beats Ford or Reagan in a landslide
May 1979: Carter loses the nomination, Reagan narrowly beats Kennedy
May 1983: Reagan narrowly beats Mondale.
May 1987: Hart decisviely beats Bush
May 1991: Bush beats any Democrat by a landslide
May 1995: Powell (if he were to run) beats Clinton. Clinton narrowly beats any other Republican nominee.
May 1999: Bush decisively beats Gore
May 2003: Bush decisively beats any Democrat
May 2007: Hillary narrowly beats Giuliani
May 2011: Obama narrowly beats Romney
May 2015: Hillary decisviely beats Jeb!, narrowly loses to any other credible Republican nominee not named Ted Cruz.
May 2019: Biden wins the popular vote, narrowly loses the EC to Trump.
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