Dutch provincial elections, March 2015

[SNJ1985]

Here is a thread for the upcoming Dutch provincial elections, which were discussed in the ''Elections coming up'' thread.

A poll from February 1st:

http://www.noties.nl/peil.nl/?4011

[DavidB.]

Alright then, let's shamelessly copy my post from the "Elections coming up" thread, since it contains some necessary information for this election:

"Dutch provincial elections will be held on March 18. The Dutch provincial councils will afterwards vote for the Senate, so the provincial elections are indirectly Senatorial elections as well. Many voters therefore focus on the Senate rather than the provincial councils.

The current Liberal-Labor government doesn't have a majority in the Senate, so it relies on support of D66 (LibDem), ChristianUnion and the orthodox Protestant SGP party. However, this five-party coalition might end up with a minority in the Senate after the provincial elections, because the current government is pretty unpopular - the Labor Party is currently polling all-time lows. This would bring new difficulties to the government, and many speculate about the coalition falling apart after the provincial elections."

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dutch politics are amusingly volatile (a far cry from a few decades back, when it was dull and formed into four inflexible pillars) nowadays.

Some sources of confusion is a) the collapse of the Christian Democrats in line with the weakening of various other 'natural governing parties' across Europe, b) the incredibly volatile D66 electorate which waxes and wanes with almost every electoral cycle and c) Wilders party is entirely centred on him - I think the party was structured in some bizarre manner, like he was technically the only member (?).

Basically don't take anything for granted. People have written obits for Dutch Labour before, but they've always held on just. If you really want to hear something that proves Dutch politics doesn't make sense, consider that the current coalition in Amstersam contains both the VVD and the Socialists.


Me? I support Party for the Animals

[freek]

c) Wilders party is entirely centred on him - I think the party was structured in some bizarre manner, like he was technically the only member (?).

By law, a political party has to be an association, i.e. it has to have members (plural). Wilders does not want other people to be members. This because of what happened in the past in parties like the Pim Fortuyn List or Leefbaar Nederland, where all kinds of factions were involved in a continuous power struggle. So the PVV has 2 members. Geert Wilders, and the 'Geert Wilders Group'-foundation. And that foundation is governed by one man: Geert Wilders.

[freek]

Amsterdam is in Noord-Holland, The Hague & Rotterdam in Zuid-Holland

Results of the 2011 elections:

Party	Seats		Gr	Fr	Dr	Ov	Fl	Gld	U	NH	ZH	Zld	NB	Lb
VVD	112	+11	6	6	9	8	9	11	11	13	12	7	12	8
PvdA	107	-7	12	11	12	9	6	9	7	11	10	7	7	6
CDA	86	-65	5	8	6	11	4	9	6	5	6	6	10	10
PVV	69	+69	3	4	4	4	6	6	5	6	8	5	8	10
SP	56	-27	6	3	4	4	3	5	4	5	5	3	8	6
D66	42	+33	3	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	5	2	5	2
GrLinks	34	+2	3	2	2	2	2	4	4	5	3	1	3	3
CU	23	-12	3	3	2	3	3	3	2		2	2
SGP	12	-2				2	1	2	1		2	4
50+	9	+9				1	1	1	1	1	1		1	2
PvdD	7	-2	1				1	1	1	1	1		1
FNP	4	-1		4
CU/SGP	1	-2								1
OudNH	1	0								1
PvZ	2	0										2
PvhN	1	0	1
Other	0	-4
Total	566	+2	43	43	41	47	39	55	47	55	55	39	55	47

FNP = Frisian National Party
OudNH = a regional party for the eldery in Noord-Holland
PvZ = Zeeland Party
PvhN = Northern party: Groningen regionalists

Most national parties participate in all provinces (VVD, PvdA, PVV, CDA, SP, GroenLinks, D66, 50PLUS). PvdD does not participate in Drenthe and Zeeland due to lack of candidates. SGP does not participate in Friesland, Groningen and Limburg due to lack of voters, and they have a joint list with ChristenUnie in Noord-Brabant and Noord-Holland. ChristenUnie also does not participate in Limburg.

While most regionalist parties lost some or all of their seats in 2011, in almost every province there will be new ones participating. These parties typically are associations of independent municipal parties.

Current polls indicate that D66 & CDA will win, while VVD & PvdA will lose. Otherwise, there will be no big changes.

The electoral system used for the province parliaments is the standard Dutch list-PR (D'Hondt). In contrast to Second Chamber elections, there is no formal electoral barrier. Parties can 'combine' their lists, which means they are considered as one list when seats are divided. Since the D'Hondt system slighty favors larger lists, this might mean an extra seat for the combined lists. Usually ChristenUnie and SGP combine their lists.

The electoral system used for the Senate is slightly different. All 566 members of the province parliaments vote for national lists. Since the parliaments of larger provinces have relatively few members, the vote of every member is multiplied by a 'vote value'. This value is the number of inhabitants of the province divided by (number of seats * 1000), rounded to the nearest integer. A vote from Zuid-Holland (the largest province) had a value of 641 in 2011, a vote from Zeeland (the smallest one) had a value of 96. Combined lists are not allowed anymore for the Senate.

[freek]

Apart from the province elections there will be some more elections on the same day. The Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius  will vote for their island councils. These islands are not part of a province.

In the European part, there will also be elections for the waterschappen. These are regional water authorities charged with managing water barriers, waterways, water levels, water quality and sewage treatment, and form a separate administrative division of the Netherlands, that also has the power to impose taxes. After many mergers, there are now 24 left.

About a third of the seats has been reserved for representatives of businesses, farmers and owners of forests and nature reserves. Since 1992 all residents of a waterschap have the right to vote. Until 2008, there were no party lists. Elections were typically held by using either a single non-transferable vote or FPTP system, but many candidates were elected unopposed. Turnout, especially for the 'residents' category usually were extremely low.

In 2008, a list system was introduced for the residents category, similar to other elections in the Netherlands. Most national parties (with the exception of SP, D66 and GroenLinks) chose to participate. Also, waterschap-specific parties were formed, two on a national level: Water Natuurlijk (Natural Water) and the Algemene Waterschapspartij (General Waterschap Party). The 2008 elections were held by postal vote. Turnout was about 20%. Because of the complicated ballot, about 10% of the votes were invalid.

Results (total is 502 seats):
Water Natuurlijk: 100
CDA: 89
PvdA: 60
VVD: 59
Algemene Waterschapspartij: 32
CU: 22
SGP: 16
PvdD: 8
Others: 115

It was decided that the election system needed reform again. At first the idea was to have indirect elections, where municipal councillors would vote. Eventually it was decided to combine the elections  with the province elections. In the mean time, the elections were postponed a few times, they are 2.5 years late now.

[DavidB.]

Apart from the province elections there will be some more elections on the same day. The Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius  will vote for their island councils. These islands are not part of a province.

In the European part, there will also be elections for the waterschappen. These are regional water authorities charged with managing water barriers, waterways, water levels, water quality and sewage treatment, and form a separate administrative division of the Netherlands, that also has the power to impose taxes. After many mergers, there are now 24 left.

About a third of the seats has been reserved for representatives of businesses, farmers and owners of forests and nature reserves. Since 1992 all residents of a waterschap have the right to vote. Until 2008, there were no party lists. Elections were typically held by using either a single non-transferable vote or FPTP system, but many candidates were elected unopposed. Turnout, especially for the 'residents' category usually were extremely low.

In 2008, a list system was introduced for the residents category, similar to other elections in the Netherlands. Most national parties (with the exception of SP, D66 and GroenLinks) chose to participate. Also, waterschap-specific parties were formed, two on a national level: Water Natuurlijk (Natural Water) and the Algemene Waterschapspartij (General Waterschap Party). The 2008 elections were held by postal vote. Turnout was about 20%. Because of the complicated ballot, about 10% of the votes were invalid.

Results (total is 502 seats):
Water Natuurlijk: 100
CDA: 89
PvdA: 60
VVD: 59
Algemene Waterschapspartij: 32
CU: 22
SGP: 16
PvdD: 8
Others: 115

It was decided that the election system needed reform again. At first the idea was to have indirect elections, where municipal councillors would vote. Eventually it was decided to combine the elections  with the province elections. In the mean time, the elections were postponed a few times, they are 2.5 years late now.

Interesting. I didn't even know this. Frankly, I think we should just leave the waterschappen in the capable hands of experts. I really don't see why the public (including myself) would know how to run important government agencies like these. Democracy only for the sake of democracy.

I'm considering just spilling my vote for this.

[freek]

These elections are next Wednesday. Latest poll by Maurice de Hond/peil.nl:

[Zinneke]

Dutch politics are amusingly volatile (a far cry from a few decades back, when it was dull and formed into four inflexible pillars) nowadays.

Some sources of confusion is a) the collapse of the Christian Democrats in line with the weakening of various other 'natural governing parties' across Europe, b) the incredibly volatile D66 electorate which waxes and wanes with almost every electoral cycle and c) Wilders party is entirely centred on him - I think the party was structured in some bizarre manner, like he was technically the only member (?).

Basically don't take anything for granted. People have written obits for Dutch Labour before, but they've always held on just. If you really want to hear something that proves Dutch politics doesn't make sense, consider that the current coalition in Amstersam contains both the VVD and the Socialists.


Me? I support Party for the Animals

I think you're underestimating the impact Pim Fortuyn and the Leefbaar parties in general had on Dutch politics. D66 were the first party who attempted a grassroots movement to destroy the political pillarisation, but by joining Wim Kok's ''Purple Nightmare' they were seen as sellouts. Fortuyn came along, built a strong anti-pillar/anti-establishment party with the added bonus of having home securtity ('Leefbaarheid') as the centre of his policy.

The reason Dutch politics has become volatile is because of the difference of styles as well ideologies. Since Fortuyn, parties of both left and right have adopted the same kind of attention seeking, explosive style which attract people who don't have much time for politics other than soundbites. SP transformed itself from an establishment party (mainly content in securing its traditional bases in Brabant, Parkstad and Gronigen) to a populist party. Its results, like D66 and PVV, have since been incredibly volatile.

In essence, these three parties are mirrors of the traditional pillars, claiming to be the ''true'' reflection of the ideology behind the pillar (SP/PvdA, PVV/VVD+CDA, D66/VVD), only with a different style of politics. It means that establishment parties can still secure their traditional pillar, but not much else, since these parties claim to represent the forgotten parts of Dutch society : students, (white) underclass, forgotten regions like Limburg, lower-middle class. One of my university professors wrote a book on the subject, and it explains why PvdA are able to recover loads of votes in GEs due to establishment-style politics, whereas SP and PVV usually collapse whenever there is an (inevitable) slip-up from their leader.  

The antithesis of this of course was PvdA''s recovery in 2012, thanks to Samson's leadership (they still had no right to get 30 seats, but thanks to their pillar they did amazingly). I think Rutte has also developed a personality cult so the establishment parties are slowly turning to the Dark Side. Only CDA remain comitted to the old style politics, mainly because their powerbase in Limburg and the mid-North would disown them if they distanced themselves from old skool communitarian politics. Boeren blijven boeren.

[DavidB.]

Today's the day! Last polls are indicating a VVD, CDA surge and a PVV, D66, SP decline.

This map, by electoral expert Josse de Voogd, is a prediction per municipality for tomorrow. Many municipalities will of course have very close results, so this map is bound to be proven wrong, but it's still a good indication: https://scontent-bru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10258607_10153123938875629_7256268864551018976_n.jpg?oh=3e3b6a4fb10426ab3bc7775c8fd94204&oe=55B27BB7

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huh, I thought VVD were having some scandals in cabinet at the moment.

[Zinneke]

Huh, I thought VVD were having some scandals in cabinet at the moment.

Again, they have built a solid pillar in Dutch society largely located in business circles. A scandal like that won't hurt them as much as it would PVV or SP for example.

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll

Party 2011 2015

VVD  19.6% 15.8%
PVDA 17.3% 10%
CDA 14.1% 15.5%
SP 10.5% 12.3%
D66 8.4% 12.3%
GL 6.3% 6.1%
CU/SGP 6% 7.1%
50+ 2.4% 3.1%
Animals 1.9% 3.5%
regional parties 1.6% 3.4%

[Zinneke]

Exit Poll

Party 2011 2015

VVD  19.6% 15.8%
PVDA 17.3% 10%
CDA 14.1% 15.5%
SP 10.5% 12.3%
D66 8.4% 12.3%
GL 6.3% 6.1%
CU/SGP 6% 7.1%
50+ 2.4% 3.1%
Animals 1.9% 3.5%
regional parties 1.6% 3.4%

Where is PVV?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huh, I thought VVD were having some scandals in cabinet at the moment.

Again, they have built a solid pillar in Dutch society largely located in business circles. A scandal like that won't hurt them as much as it would PVV or SP for example.

Yes I know they have their pillar but I didn't expect a surge. I expected them to be around the lower threshold of their floor.

Another peculiar trend in Dutch polling is that there is a freakishly large difference between Ipsos polls and every other pollster. Weird.

[SunSt0rm]

Final result

Turn out 48%

VVD 15.8% (-3.7%)
CDA 14.7% (+0.6%)
D66 12.3% (+4%)
PVV 11.7% (-0.7%)
SP 11.6% (+1.5%)
PVDA 10% (-7.3%)
GL 5.3% (-1%)
CU/SGP 7.5% (+1.5%)
Animals 3.4% (+1.7%)
50+ 3.4% (+1%)

Pronvicial results:

Groningen: SP
Friesland: CDA
Drenthe: VVD
Overijssel: CDA
Gelderland: VVD
Utrecht: D66 (by only 8 votes)
N-Holland: VVD
Z-Holland: VVD
Zeeland: CDA
N-Brabant: VVD
Limnurg: CDA

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How will that likely affect the senate?

[freek]

	Seats		Gr	Fr	Dr	Ov	Fl	Gld	U	NH	ZH	Zld	NB	Lb
VVD	89	-23	4	5	7	6	7	9	9	11	10	6	10	5
CDA	89	+3	5	9	6	11	5	9	6	5	7	6	9	11
SP	69	+13	8	5	5	5	4	6	4	6	5	4	9	8
D66	67	+25	4	3	4	5	4	7	9	10	7	3	7	4
PVV	66	-3	3	4	5	5	6	5	4	6	8	4	7	9
PvdA	64	-43	6	7	7	5	4	6	5	7	5	4	4	4
GrLinks	30	-4	3	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	3	1	3	2
CU	29	+6	4	3	3	4	3	4	3		3	2
SGP	18	+6				2	2	3	2		3	6
CU/SGP	2	+1								1			1
PvdD	18	+11	2	1		1	2	2	2	3	2		2	1
50PLUS	14	+5		1	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	1
GrBel	3	new	3
PvhN	1	0	1
FNP	4	0		4
SterkLok	1	new			1
OudNH	1	0								1
PvZ	1	-1										1
ZeeLok	1	new										1
LokBrab	1	new											1
VolkLim	1	new												1
LokLim	1	new												1
Total	570	+4	43	43	41	47	41	55	49	55	55	39	55	47

[freek]

How will that likely affect the senate?

If I assume the following:

• All regionalist parties vote for a joint list
• No agreements between parties to swap or give away votes

Then the Senate composition will be:

VVD 13 (-3)
PvdA 8 (-6)

D66 10 (+5)
ChristenUnie 3 (+1)
SGP 2 (+1)
=======
Coalition + C3 = 36 seats

CDA 12 (+1)
SP 9 (+1)
PVV 9 (-1)
GrLinks 4 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
50PLUS 2 (+1)
Regional 1 (0)
=======
Opposition = 39 seats

[swl]

Positive results in my opinion. I guess the government will try to get CDA's support?

[lilTommy]

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2015/03/provincial-elections-follow-the-results-as-they-come-in/

Clickable map of the results by municipality, % results

[freek]

How will that likely affect the senate?

If I assume the following:

• All regionalist parties vote for a joint list
• No agreements between parties to swap or give away votes

Then the Senate composition will be:

VVD 13 (-3)
PvdA 8 (-6)

D66 10 (+5)
ChristenUnie 3 (+1)
SGP 2 (+1)
=======
Coalition + C3 = 36 seats

CDA 12 (+1)
SP 9 (+1)
PVV 9 (-1)
GrLinks 4 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
50PLUS 2 (+1)
Regional 1 (0)
=======
Opposition = 39 seats

Senate elections were today. No major surprises, Senate composition is as expected.