What time will the election be called?
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  What time will the election be called?
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Author Topic: What time will the election be called?  (Read 2580 times)
ClimateDem
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« on: May 16, 2015, 07:16:37 PM »

Thoughts?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2015, 07:50:06 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2015, 08:02:11 PM »

Around 1 AM. This is going to be a lot tighter than the last two.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2015, 08:06:23 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2015, 09:47:57 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Hopefully not until late (about midnight)
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2015, 08:08:44 PM »

In the evening, probably before nine. Don't kid yourself; 2000 nail-bitter isn't happening.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2015, 08:10:06 PM »

In the evening, probably before nine. Don't kid yourself; 2000 nail-bitter isn't happening.
I think we are going to have a redux of 2012 with a surprisingly early call for Ohio and thus the election.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2015, 08:10:16 PM »

Close election -- midnight, when Virginia runs out of votes.

300 EV, D --11:30 PM, when Ohio runs out of votes.

300 EV, R -- midnight, when Colorado runs out of votes.

350-420 EV, D -- immediately after California, Oregon,and Washington are called.

420+ EV, D --  10 PM, when Georgia is called
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BigVic
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2015, 08:13:52 PM »

If Clinton has a huge lead and has carried FL and OH by 8PM, by 9PM. Otherwise brace yourselves for a very long night.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2015, 08:21:02 PM »

11 pm EST.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2015, 08:39:13 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.

If Cruz is the nominee the election will be called by 8:30pm...
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2015, 08:50:06 PM »

I think the Republicans win FL, OH, PA, IA, and WI (but, notably, not VA).  I will say that it is called at about 10 PM Eastern, when PA is called.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2015, 08:55:41 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.

If Cruz is the nominee the election will be called by 8:30pm...
That's actually impossible based on poll closing times, unless Clinton is winning by landslides in the south. Even if it's extremely obvious who the electoral winner is, the networks aren't allowed to call the election until a candidate actually reaches 270 EV's among states that have actually closed their polls.

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Nyvin
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2015, 09:09:49 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.

If Cruz is the nominee the election will be called by 8:30pm...
That's actually impossible based on poll closing times, unless Clinton is winning by landslides in the south. Even if it's extremely obvious who the electoral winner is, the networks aren't allowed to call the election until a candidate actually reaches 270 EV's among states that have actually closed their polls.



?

Why is it impossible?  Ohio closes at 7:30pm,  Florida closes at 8:00pm.   She wins those two outright and they're called early.    Without those two states it's pretty much impossible for the GOP to win.   The election is called.
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2015, 09:36:08 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.

If Cruz is the nominee the election will be called by 8:30pm...
That's actually impossible based on poll closing times, unless Clinton is winning by landslides in the south. Even if it's extremely obvious who the electoral winner is, the networks aren't allowed to call the election until a candidate actually reaches 270 EV's among states that have actually closed their polls.



?

Why is it impossible?  Ohio closes at 7:30pm,  Florida closes at 8:00pm.   She wins those two outright and they're called early.    Without those two states it's pretty much impossible for the GOP to win.   The election is called.

That's not how the networks do things. The networks call the election when a candidate has reached 270 electoral votes among the states that have actually closed their polls. This is the map Clinton would need by 8:30 for the election be called at 8:30



Only 276 electoral votes close by 8:30, so to get the election called for you by that time, you need to win at least 270 of those 276. (I made AR the 6 you can miss in the above map, you can switch this with a state of 6 electoral votes or less that closes its polls in time if desired)  Not only do you have to win them, but you also have to win them by such a landslide that they are called for you by 8:30. Yes, in order to get the election called by 8:30, Clinton would not only need to win Alabama, Tennessee, and Indiana, she would need to win by 8:30 pm. She's not going to win Alabama by such a landslide that that happens. And if she doesn't win Alabama by 8:30 pm, even if Arkansas is called immediately, then it is literally impossible for her to reach 270 electoral votes until 9 pm. And the election isn't called until a candidate actually reaches 270. The networks will talk about the election in an "its essentially over" sense, but they won't actually put up their "Clinton wins!" banner until she actually has 270 EV's in her column.

We actually saw this play out in 2008. At 9:30, Obama was in a position where all that needed to be called for him for him to win was CA, OR, WA, and HI, which were considered completely safe for him. However, the election was not actually called until those states closed their polls at 11:00, because Obama couldn't reach 270 among the states that were already called for him until those states closed their polls. It wasn't called at 9:30 because even though it was extremely likely that Obama would win, he had not actually had 270 electoral votes called for him, and therefore the networks could not actually call the election.

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bobloblaw
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2015, 09:57:10 PM »

If Clinton has a huge lead and has carried FL and OH by 8PM, by 9PM. Otherwise brace yourselves for a very long night.

Well it is clear Clinton wont have a huge lead. She is a horrible candidate with tons of baggage stuffed with $100 bills
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2015, 10:01:37 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.

is this satire?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2015, 10:07:23 PM »

Around 1am. I think it will be a tight race. If it's a Cruz/Clinton, 2am, because lots of conservatives will turnout and it could be closer than you think.

is this satire?
Yes. The argument that conservatives will turn out in never before seen droves across the country for a true conservative candidate is utterly ridiculous and bunch of hogwash.
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Flake
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2015, 10:12:01 PM »

11ish
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2015, 11:10:59 PM »

3 am, I think that a lot of keys states particularly in the Midwest will be decided by a hair thin margin.
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Zioneer
PioneerProgress
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2015, 02:10:36 AM »

July 28, 2016.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2015, 04:48:09 AM »

I think the Republicans win FL, OH, PA, IA, and WI (but, notably, not VA).  I will say that it is called at about 10 PM Eastern, when PA is called.

Iowa polls close at 10 PM Eastern Time.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2015, 04:48:25 AM »

3 am, I think that a lot of keys states particularly in the Midwest will be decided by a hair thin margin.

I think the Republicans win FL, OH, PA, IA, and WI (but, notably, not VA).  I will say that it is called at about 3 AM Eastern, when PA is called.

This.

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Cryptic
Shadowlord88
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2015, 04:55:02 AM »

Sometime between 11 and midnight.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2015, 05:48:56 AM »

after midnight
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BigVic
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2015, 09:04:23 AM »

If it's a close race and it comes win to Iowa and Ohio, it could happen in the early hours of 9 November or drag on for a few weeks
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