Democrat's path to a majority in the House

[Nyvin]

And, they would have to hold all of their marginal seats in this scenario

I think they only have 7 seats that are D+1, D+2, or even.   

[Nyvin]

And, they would have to hold all of their marginal seats in this scenario

Which marginal seats do they have left?  Fl-18, AZ-01, MN-07, FL-02, NE-02?  After those five, there isn't much left.

AZ-9, CA-52, MN-8, CA-7.....

Altogether there are 15 seats that Democrats hold that are between D+2 and R+6.

There are 37 seats Republicans hold between D+8 and R+2.

[Nyvin]

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No, not really,  the Democratic party in Michigan is pretty solid.   Eric Schertzing wasn't a good candidate, but there's others out there.   Debbie Stabenow came from MI-8's area.   Also MI-8 has parts of east Lansing.  

Frankly rather than MI-8 I would aim for MI-6 with it's large college student population.   Nominate someone younger and more modern, and paint Upton as a fossil.