Democrat's path to a majority in the House

[smoltchanov]

Democrats have to pick up 30 seats in order to get a majority in the House of Representatives. Here are some seats likely needed in order to do so.

AZ-02, AR-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CO-06, FL-13, FL-26, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IA-01, IA-03, ME-02, MI-01, MI-07, MI-08, MN-02, NV-03, NV-04, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-05, NY-01, NY-11, NY-19, NY-21, NY-24, PA-06, PA-08, TX-23, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08, WV-02, WI-07

There are 36 seats here, so they have to win 83% of these in order to get the majority. If there is already a thread on this, I apologize.

Some problems:

AR-02 - difficult with  heavy republican swing in this state

IL-12. Southern Illinois swung to Republicans too

IL-13 Adequate Republican congressman, who will be difficult to beat

MI-08 AFAIK - relatively weak Democratic bench and relatively strong Republican tradition on local level despite rather good Democratic presidential numbers.

MN-02. Generally conservative district with solidly conservative bit unoffensive Republican.

NV-03. Heck is a rather talented congressman  and pragmatic conservative to boot.

NJ-03 MacArthur is very adequate representative of this swingy, but usually Republican on congressional level district - conservative, but not VERY conservative. He isn't Lonegan

NJ-05 Garrett is a right-wing extremist, but district is conservative enough.

NY-11 Donovan fits district as hand fits glove. Police union is popular there. Only scandal may doom him

NY-21. Stefanik isn't a fiery right-winger, and district's tradition is very Republican (Owens was the only Democrat representing it i may remember and he was anything, but liberal)

PA-08. Bucks county has better Republican (and not especially conservative, what's good for suburban district) then Democratic bench

WI-07 Duffy seems rather entrenched and, while solidly conservative - not especially offensive.

So (IMHO of course) - -12 and no chances (for majority) except in really BIG wave.

[smoltchanov]

Their path is similar to Frodo's path to Mordor. Long, winding, convoluted, requiring a ton of luck, and altogether fictional.

But Frodo succeded))))

[smoltchanov]

Democrats have to pick up 30 seats in order to get a majority in the House of Representatives. Here are some seats likely needed in order to do so.

AZ-02, AR-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CO-06, FL-13, FL-26, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IA-01, IA-03, ME-02, MI-01, MI-07, MI-08, MN-02, NV-03, NV-04, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-05, NY-01, NY-11, NY-19, NY-21, NY-24, PA-06, PA-08, TX-23, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08, WV-02, WI-07

There are 36 seats here, so they have to win 83% of these in order to get the majority. If there is already a thread on this, I apologize.

Some problems:

AR-02 - difficult with  heavy republican swing in this state

IL-12. Southern Illinois swung to Republicans too

IL-13 Adequate Republican congressman, who will be difficult to beat

MI-08 AFAIK - relatively weak Democratic bench and relatively strong Republican tradition on local level despite rather good Democratic presidential numbers.

MN-02. Generally conservative district with solidly conservative bit unoffensive Republican.

NV-03. Heck is a rather talented congressman  and pragmatic conservative to boot.

NJ-03 MacArthur is very adequate representative of this swingy, but usually Republican on congressional level district - conservative, but not VERY conservative. He isn't Lonegan

NJ-05 Garrett is a right-wing extremist, but district is conservative enough.

NY-11 Donovan fits district as hand fits glove. Police union is popular there. Only scandal may doom him

NY-21. Stefanik isn't a fiery right-winger, and district's tradition is very Republican (Owens was the only Democrat representing it i may remember and he was anything, but liberal)

PA-08. Bucks county has better Republican (and not especially conservative, what's good for suburban district) then Democratic bench

WI-07 Duffy seems rather entrenched and, while solidly conservative - not especially offensive.

So (IMHO of course) - -12 and no chances (for majority) except in really BIG wave.

The democrats need to stop pretending they can't win these seats. If someone like Mark Warner could come close to losing, then some of these guys can be defeated - especially the guys who got below 60%.

They (Democrats) can defeat some of these guys. But only SOME. And for this to happen they will need as big wave as happened in 2014 (and almost washed Warner away), only in opposite direction. Then a LOT is possible. But so far i see no signs of such big wave in sight. Of course - everything can change rather quickly...

[smoltchanov]

The only way Democrats can win back the House in 2016 is if goof or a far-right nutjob wins the GOP presidential nomination and ends up hurting Republicans at all levels.  Otherwise, I don't see it happening before the next redistricting cycle.

+1. Exactly my thoughts too. And even then - it will require big gains for Democrats in governor and state legislative elections of 2018-2020