If Bush loses Iowa AND New Hampshire...

[Progressive]

What would his strategy realistically be to stay in the race? Could the fallout of a loss in both states really not kill his candidacy, considering the 24/7 news cycle?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bush has enough money, status within the party, and name recognition that he could still go on to Nevada and South Carolina. But if he doesn't get a win in one of those two states either, he's out.

[bobloblaw]

What would his strategy realistically be to stay in the race? Could the fallout of a loss in both states really not kill his candidacy, considering the 24/7 news cycle?

He's done and embarrassed himself

[Cory]

He tries to skip everything and win Florida. He becomes the literal incarnation of Rudy Giuliani for the 2016 cycle. It fails and he fades into irrelevance.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't think Bush has a chance of winning anything before SC, even if he is in good shape going into the primaries.

[ShamDam]

I think he's only in trouble if Walker is the one who wins both. If say Huckabee wins Iowa and Paul wins NH, and Bush comes in second both times, he could realistically still be the frontrunner.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He tries to skip everything and win Florida. He becomes the literal incarnation of Rudy Giuliani for the 2016 cycle. It fails and he fades into irrelevance.

The funny thing is Georgia is the only state of the first 11 that Bill Clinton won in 1992.

[SteveRogers]

When I tried to play through the Republican primary in President Infinity, Bush lost both but then rebounded after Super Tuesday and then beat me (Kasich) in a closely divided convention.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think it's hilarious that Bush is polling at 5% in Iowa... I believe is campaign is slowly imploding, and I highly doubt the GOP will seriously want Bush to be our flag bearer for 2016

[Cory]

When I tried to play through the Republican primary in President Infinity, Bush lost both but then rebounded after Super Tuesday and then beat me (Kasich) in a closely divided convention.

Lame.

Reminds me of a Jessie Jackson 1988 campaign in ran in President Forever + Primaries.

[CountryClassSF]

While some of his rumored tactical decisions (such as skipping Iowa) may not  be the best plans, he's raising a lot of money that's going to be used trash-talking fellow Republicans a la Romney.  His numbers have no where to go but up - he has and is working very hard to get the donor/ruling class GOP on his side.

The issue is - does he use that money to rake Republicans over the coals like Romney did, and then go soft in the general (and lose?).

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think he's only in trouble if Walker is the one who wins both. If say Huckabee wins Iowa and Paul wins NH, and Bush comes in second both times, he could realistically still be the frontrunner.

I agree with this. 

[bobloblaw]

While some of his rumored tactical decisions (such as skipping Iowa) may not  be the best plans, he's raising a lot of money that's going to be used trash-talking fellow Republicans a la Romney.  His numbers have no where to go but up - he has and is working very hard to get the donor/ruling class GOP on his side.

The issue is - does he use that money to rake Republicans over the coals like Romney did, and then go soft in the general (and lose?).

Ask President Phil Gramm and John Connolly how well lots of money alone does you.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is the GOP using PR or winner-takes-all to assign delegates? If the former, he could keep up a steady stream of supporters.

[bobloblaw]

I think he's only in trouble if Walker is the one who wins both. If say Huckabee wins Iowa and Paul wins NH, and Bush comes in second both times, he could realistically still be the frontrunner.

Walker will win Iowa. People are done with Huckster and IA has a history of supporting regional neighbors,  like Obama, Gephardt and Dole.

[Mr. Morden]

Is the GOP using PR or winner-takes-all to assign delegates?

Both, and neither.  Each state sets its own delegate allocation rules.  However, states holding primaries or caucuses before March 15th are barred from doing statewide WTA.  They must assign at least a portion of their delegates according to a PR formula based on the statewide results.  However, they may also allocate the remainder of their delegates WTA-by-congressional district if they wish.  States voting on March 15th or later, on the other hand, can allocate their delegates however they want.

But the most common allocation method that's used is some form of "winner-take-most", where there are some delegates allocated based on the statewide result, but the majority are WTA-by-congressional district.  Which means that if a candidate wins a state by double digits, they're probably going to get the bulk of the delegates, since they're inevitably going to win most of the congressional districts (assuming the results aren't hugely geographically polarized within the state).

The really crazy thing is that most of these states that use WTA-by-CD give an equal number of delegates to every district in the state, regardless of how many Republicans live there.  So Nancy Pelosi's district has the same number of delegates as the most Republican district in California, regardless of how many voters actually show up to vote in the GOP primary.  So the allocation gives significantly more power to Republican voters living in heavily-Democratic urban areas than their numbers would normally merit.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush has enough money, status within the party, and name recognition that he could still go on to Nevada and South Carolina. But if he doesn't get a win in one of those two states either, he's out.

Bush has enough money to stay in the whole way if he wants to. No Republican has ever been nominated without winning one of them but Bill Clinton did it for the Dems. And it does make a big difference if Walker wins IA or both vs Huckabee, Cruz or Paul winning the early ones. In the latter scenario, Bush would never quit.

I think he's only in trouble if Walker is the one who wins both. If say Huckabee wins Iowa and Paul wins NH, and Bush comes in second both times, he could realistically still be the frontrunner.

Walker will win Iowa. People are done with Huckster and IA has a history of supporting regional neighbors,  like Obama, Gephardt and Dole.

Not Bachmann but then again I still maintain Pawlenty would have won Iowa and the nomination if had stayed in last time, which had it happened would support your theory.

Anyway, Walker isn't just a neighbor. He spent some childhood years in Iowa. But I disagree Huckabee doesn't appeal to Iowa anymore. I just think Walker will destroy him with ads if necessary. But Cruz might be able to damage Walker too and if it's enough to win Iowa, that won't be too shocking.

[bobloblaw]

Bush has enough money, status within the party, and name recognition that he could still go on to Nevada and South Carolina. But if he doesn't get a win in one of those two states either, he's out.

Bush has enough money to stay in the whole way if he wants to. No Republican has ever been nominated without winning one of them but Bill Clinton did it for the Dems. And it does make a big difference if Walker wins IA or both vs Huckabee, Cruz or Paul winning the early ones. In the latter scenario, Bush would never quit.

I think he's only in trouble if Walker is the one who wins both. If say Huckabee wins Iowa and Paul wins NH, and Bush comes in second both times, he could realistically still be the frontrunner.

Walker will win Iowa. People are done with Huckster and IA has a history of supporting regional neighbors,  like Obama, Gephardt and Dole.

Not Bachmann but then again I still maintain Pawlenty would have won Iowa and the nomination if had stayed in last time, which had it happened would support your theory.

Anyway, Walker isn't just a neighbor. He spent some childhood years in Iowa. But I disagree Huckabee doesn't appeal to Iowa anymore. I just think Walker will destroy him with ads if necessary. But Cruz might be able to damage Walker too and if it's enough to win Iowa, that won't be too shocking.

Clinton is a special case. Harkin was from IA and Taxongas was from MA, so in 1992 the first two primaries were effectively null and void.

Oh yeah I for got this