Any conceivable circumstance in which 2016 is a landslide for Hillary?

[Dazey]

I'm not talking about a 1972 or 1984 style landslide of course, but something on the order of a 1956, 1964 or 1980 sized victory?

[Free Bird]

Despite OC and IceSpear's best wishes, no.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are you suggesting that OC is Icespear's sock?

[JonathanSwift]

Republicans nominate an "extremist" ticket and Obama is assassinated by a Tea Partier while speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 61%; 468 Electoral Votes
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 37%; 70 Electoral Votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

303 electors isnt a landslide.

But, Jeb just made a Palin and Herman Cain like gaffee, he is beatable.

[DS0816]

Republicans nominate an "extremist" ticket and Obama is assassinated by a Tea Partier while speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 61%; 468 Electoral Votes
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 37%; 70 Electoral Votes

With that map, you can just give the Cruz/Pence ticket the trio of states which best-perform for the Republicans: Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Let them keep Oklahoma. They may be able to hold Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District. All the rest, still indicated as Republican holds, would flip.

[Cryptic]

Only if the Republicans nominate an extremist AND on top of that he does something completely stupid to derail his campaign. The country is too polarized for it to occur under any other circumstances right now.

[Lief 🗽]

A 1980 sized victory is 10%. That's very possible.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Outside of a republican ticket worse than Christine O'Donnell, Richard Mourdock, and Todd Akin COMBINED, Hillary's absolute ceiling is 399 EVs. (2012 + NC, AZ, GA, MO, IN, MT, NE-2)

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, but it's now quite unlikely.  Average 5% economic growth from fall 2015-fall 2016 would mean an Ike level PV win for Hillary (or any competent Dem really).

[King]

A landslide in the PV.

Honestly, I think it's possible for her to win the PV by a margin of 55-44 but not pick up any state other than NC.

Someone like Ted Cruz would be super hated in any Obama/swing state, but probably would do just as well as Romney in Romney states.

[bedstuy]

I could see a huge popular vote win where Hillary stomps on the Republican in suburbs and among educated people, but still loses rural voters and the South/West by that not much less than Obama.  Something like this maybe.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Depends on your definition of landslide. The Clinton ceiling is sub-400 EVs.

[Lief 🗽]

Missouri, Indiana and Georgia are all possible in a landslide scenario.

[JonathanSwift]

Republicans nominate an "extremist" ticket and Obama is assassinated by a Tea Partier while speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 61%; 468 Electoral Votes
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 37%; 70 Electoral Votes

With that map, you can just give the Cruz/Pence ticket the trio of states which best-perform for the Republicans: Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Let them keep Oklahoma. They may be able to hold Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District. All the rest, still indicated as Republican holds, would flip.

Well, I guess under these circumstances Clinton could flip Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Tennessee and West Virginia (and conceivably even Louisiana), but I'd definitely keep Alabama in the Republican column. It's a very inelastic state.

[pbrower2a]

It's only one state (AZ) with several match-ups and one (KY) with one match-up... but those two suggest that the USA isn't so polarized if the Democratic choice isn't Barack Obama.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

All of you are missing the obvious answer: Of course she'll win the primaries in a landslide. I'll give Vermont to Bernie and maybe give him another state or two, but I think that Hillary Clinton can easily win 45 states for sure.

[bballrox4717]

I think we need to set a line between a decisive victory and a landslide victory. Too many posters are posting maps here that aren't landslides by any means. A landslide isn't impossible now. There just hasn't been the conditions necessary for a landslide (not that I think there will be one in 2016) lately. 2008 could have very well been a landslide, for instance, if McCain hadn't been the nominee.

I'd consider any margin of victory above 5 percentage points and over 100 electoral votes to be decisive, whereas a landslide would see a margin of victory of over 15 percent and the losing party falling underneath 100 electoral votes. 15 percent is really the line where you see deep red and blue states flip despite their PVI, though 1980 was weird because Anderson was targeting the middle to hurt Reagan but winded up hurting Carter more. By this criteria, the elections that were considered landslides, like 1964 and 1972, are accurately separated from elections that were relatively close but saw a candidate pull away decisively near the end, like 1988 and 2008.

For Hillary to accurately cross the line between decisive victory and landslide, she needs to flip Texas. It's the only way to drop the Republican candidate below 100 electoral votes, and it's only possible if Hillary's winning by 15 percent or more.

Personally, the only way I think Hillary wins a true landslide is if Rand Paul is the nominee. An evangelical, populist candidate like Cruz or Carson won't harm the base enough, even if moderates and independents flee the GOP. They would literally need to completely fall apart like Palin did in 2008 (and even then she didn't harm McCain enough to cause a landslide). It would simply look decisive, like Obama's 2008 victory, but with a slightly bigger margin. Rand Paul, however, might be toxic enough on foreign policy for the Republicans to cause the split necessary for a landslide to occur.

[RFayette]

^Rand Paul has been backpedaling a lot on foreign policy.  I don't see that happening.


Here is the most catastrophic somewhat plausible scenario for the GOP:

1. Walker implodes, Jeb is perceived as too moderate, and Rubio just can't garner enough support.  Kasich opts not to enter the race.
2. Cruz rakes in fundraising dollars and wins pluralities in many primaries.
3. The convention is contested due to the closeness of ballots.
4. US economic growth picks up a lot, and gas prices drop significantly to January levels.
5. Multiple high-profile Republicans like McCain endorse Hilldawg, or at least fail to endorse Cruz, to try to save their Senate campaigns.


In this scenario, we'd be looking at Obama '08 + GA/MO/FL/SD/ND/MT/AZ

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Republicans nominate an "extremist" ticket and Obama is assassinated by a Tea Partier while speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

This, or something like it. It doesn't have to be an assassination of Obama, though. Let any of the real crazies somehow get the nomination and then add on something unforgivable to a large segment of the electorate - a call to "kill the gays" or "put women back in the kitchen" that is then not walked back. Open and public calls for a religious-conservative theocracy here in the US might do it, too.

I'd say the odds of something like that happening are about equal to the chances of something that utterly sinks Hillary's chances - a massive economic crash, devastating terror attacks in the US, or the US drawn into a major war that's going poorly.

[Fuzzy Bear]

This is my 428-110 map for Clinton vs. Cruz with Cruz choosing an extremist idiot as his running mate:

[bballrox4717]

I think you are all underestimating Cruz a bit. He would definitely lose to Hillary, but it probably looks like Obama 2012 + NC. She isn't going to into the Republican base enough to start taking deep red states like the Dakotas and West Virginia, and the Republicans aren't going to abandon Cruz if he wins the nomination. They're too scared of primaries for that.

I'm not necessarily saying the Republicans would abandon Paul either, but he's the only one with enough policy difference with the mainstream that Hillary could run to his right on foreign policy and really cut into the neoconservatives to win a landslide. Otherwise both parties are just too unified in policy to really cause a landslide.

[Devils30]

I think Cruz would lose NC, IN, AZ, MO to Hillary. GA is too polarized and Hillary would probably lose it with around 48%.

[Samantha]

'legitimate rape' or something equally tone deaf.

[bobloblaw]

Republicans nominate an "extremist" ticket and Obama is assassinated by a Tea Partier while speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 61%; 468 Electoral Votes
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 37%; 70 Electoral Votes

With that map, you can just give the Cruz/Pence ticket the trio of states which best-perform for the Republicans: Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Let them keep Oklahoma. They may be able to hold Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District. All the rest, still indicated as Republican holds, would flip.

How does MS go Dem? MS is the most inelastic state in the union.

But no, Hillary doesnt get a landslide.

I stand by my prediction that 2016 will be closer than 2012