Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[jaichind]

Gezici poll

AKP          39.1
CHP          28.7
MHP         17.1
HDP          12.5

HDP gaining a bit from last poll

[jaichind]

It seems that Erdogan is burning all bridges to get to the 330 or 60% of seats.  He seems to be gambling on a massive turnout to push HDP below 10% and hope that AKP beats CHP+MHP by a good margin. Neither looks like a good bet right now.  But whereas before there when AKP does not get a majority there was a good shot for AKP to stay in power by forming a coalition that way Erdogan is running this campaign he is asking for CHP+MHP+HDP to gang up on AKP after the election.  I guess it is all or nothing now for Erdogan.

[jaichind]

Looks like there is a ban on polls 10 days before the election which is today.  So I guess AKP will enter this period polling in the low 40s.  Even if this is an underestimate by a couple of percentage points I do not see how AKP gets to 330 seats even if HDP does not cross 10%.

[Dan the Roman]

It seems that Erdogan is burning all bridges to get to the 330 or 60% of seats.  He seems to be gambling on a massive turnout to push HDP below 10% and hope that AKP beats CHP+MHP by a good margin. Neither looks like a good bet right now.  But whereas before there when AKP does not get a majority there was a good shot for AKP to stay in power by forming a coalition that way Erdogan is running this campaign he is asking for CHP+MHP+HDP to gang up on AKP after the election.  I guess it is all or nothing now for Erdogan.

I think it is as good a bet as nationwide power outages on the 7th.

[Famous Mortimer]

The main question mark is therefore whether HDP will make it to the threshold. If so, AKP’s life could be a bit more complicated. If not, that’s 9% lost votes automatically granted to them, and they should win big.

Incidentally, this is true in practice though not in theory - since the results all over Kurdistan* will presumably be along the lines of HDP 45-60, AKP 35-50, Kemalists at joke levels, again.

In the presidential election, the CHP actually beat out the AKP in Eskişehir. What was the deal there?

Actually I meant to ask what the deal in Dersim is. Eskisehir is definitely military bases and universities.

Dersim is weirder though. AKP came in third behind the Kurds and the CHP. Apparently there was a Kemalist massacre of some Kurds there in the 20s. Erdogen actually apologized for it on the states behalf. You would think for those reasons that the CHP would be a joke party, like it is in the rest of Kurdistan but it's not, it's exactly the opposite, the AKP is the joke party. It's the only province where they came in third.

[palandio]

Dersim is majority Alevi (and ethnically Zaza-Kurdish). Most Alevis don't hold sympathies for a Sunni Islamist party like the AKP. Additionally since 2010 the CHP chairman is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is (originally) an Alevi from Dersim.

[Famous Mortimer]

What does a typical MHP voter look like?

[jaichind]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32964616

Turkish president challenges opponent to 'find golden toilet seat'.  CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu accused Erdogan of excessive spending of taxpayers' money on luxuries, including gold-plated toilet seats.   Erdogan invites opponent to inspect for gold in palace toilets

[Famous Mortimer]

Hey, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu joined the MHP.

[Donnie]

Final Prediction:

AKP   43%
CHP   27%
MHP  16%
HDP  11%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yet more bombongs of the HDP today.

[jaichind]

My prediction

AKP   42%
CHP   26.5%
MHP  17.5%
HDP  10.5%

[Hydera]

My Prediction

AKP 45%
CHP 27%
MHP 14%
HDP 10%

[Donnie]

Any turnout leaks from our turkish friends?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

How do Turkish elections work? Will we have to wait for days for the results? Or will we start getting results soon after the polls close?

[Donnie]

As soon as they close the polls, real time updates of incoming vote counting.
Turkey is in that regard one of the best.

[jaichind]

Erdogan stated earlier in the day that turnout "appears high."

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I suspect higher turnout would help the HDP and other opposition parties.

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  But the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey website http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ seems to be down.

[Tender Branson]

Livestream (HD):

http://de.firstonetv.com/stream/tr/1

[jaichind]

Reporting of any results prohibited until Supreme Elections Board, or YSK, lifts discretionary ban

[jaichind]

Hundreds of photos of cars without license plates parked at polling stations circulate on social media, making it a trending topic on Twitter in Turkey

[Tender Branson]

I'm worried that the power-hungry Islamo-fascist pseudo-dictator Erdogan is going to manipulate the results, so that his AKP remains in charge ...

[Donnie]

I'm worried that the power-hungry Islamo-fascist pseudo-dictator Erdogan is going to manipulate the results, so that his AKP remains in charge ...

me 2.

[jaichind]

http://www.dailysabah.com/elections/2015/06/07/social-media-post-exposes-hdp-voter-cheating-in-turkeys-general-elections

There is a story about HDP supporter stuffing ballot boxes