Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tender, nobody here likes Erdogan but it is silliness to describe him as a dictator or dismiss the election as an electoral type event. There was clearly shenanigans going on, but it seemed to be typical developing world democracy troubles rather than troubling Iran-style election fixing.

Erdogan reminds me more of Viktor Orban than the radical Islamists in MENA IMHO.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

89.9% reporting

AK 41.5% 260
CHP 25.2% 130
MHP 16.7% 83
HDP 12.1% 77

[Gustaf]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

[jaichind]

94.5% counted

AKP        41.6          263
CHP        25.2          130
MHP       16.7            83
HDP       11.9            75

[jaichind]

89.9% reporting

AK 41.5% 260
CHP 25.2% 130
MHP 16.7% 83
HDP 12.1% 77

Looks like CNN's difference with the various Turkish medias does not differ just in vote share but the allocation of seats.  We will see soon. which ones is correct.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

Gustaf, I find it odd that you think I'm only attacking Erdogan/AKP because I'm an Austrian (and all Austrians of course hate Turks ... )

That is certainly not the case, because I frequently attack Putin, Orban and the likes with the same enthusiasm. They are all the same bastards.

[ag]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

Gustaf, I find it odd that you think I'm only attacking Erdogan/AKP because I'm an Austrian (and all Austrians of course hate Turks ... )

That is certainly not the case, because I frequently attack Putin, Orban and the likes with the same enthusiasm. They are all the same bastards.

Well: the fact is, they are not the same. Putin is a dictator, and Russia has no elections. Hungary and Turkey have authoritarian, but elected, rulers.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

Gustaf, I find it odd that you think I'm only attacking Erdogan/AKP because I'm an Austrian (and all Austrians of course hate Turks ... )

That is certainly not the case, because I frequently attack Putin, Orban and the likes with the same enthusiasm. They are all the same bastards.

Well: the fact is, they are not the same. Putin is a dictator, and Russia has no elections. Hungary and Turkey have authoritarian, but elected, rulers.

Just look at what Erdogan plans to do, he wants to increase power for himself, he is trying, although subtly to desecularize Turkey.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the old days of sham parliamentary government with the all powerful military covertly (and sometimes overtly) pulling the strings are something to be lamented. Not that I like Erdogan; it is a very good thing that he's suffered a setback of sorts today.

[ag]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

Gustaf, I find it odd that you think I'm only attacking Erdogan/AKP because I'm an Austrian (and all Austrians of course hate Turks ... )

That is certainly not the case, because I frequently attack Putin, Orban and the likes with the same enthusiasm. They are all the same bastards.

Well: the fact is, they are not the same. Putin is a dictator, and Russia has no elections. Hungary and Turkey have authoritarian, but elected, rulers.

Just look at what Erdogan plans to do, he wants to increase power for himself, he is trying, although subtly to desecularize Turkey.

Just look at what Putin has done: and there is nothing subtle there.

[Velasco]

I'm watching results through this kinda cool outfit:

http://www.radikal.com.tr/secim-2015/secim-sonuclari/#cha

Will the inane and annoying nonsense ever end? I'd like to read something more insightful than the usual rubbish about Erdogan, honestly.

[Famous Mortimer]

I asked before but I'll ask again cus no one answered. Anyone got any idea what MHP's constituency actually looks like?

[jaichind]

97.7% counted

AKP        41.2          260
CHP        25.3          130
MHP       16.6            82
HDP       12.3            78

[jaichind]

I asked before but I'll ask again cus no one answered. Anyone got any idea what MHP's constituency actually looks like?

Rural based cultural nationalist who are fearful of urban cosmopolitan culture as well as Kurdish nationalism which could undermine the unity of the Turkish state.

[Donnie]

98.54% counted:

AKP 41.02 %
CHP 25.23 %
MPH 16.53 %
HDP 12.52 %

[jaichind]

98.4% counted

AKP        41.0          259
CHP        25.2          131
MHP       16.5            82
HDP       12.5            78

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a majority bonus? I see AKP is getting a higher share of seats that its results would entail. I thought Turkey used unaltered PR (although with an insanely high threshold).

[RodPresident]

With MHP or HDP as coalition partners, AKP can get 60% needed to get Constitutional amendments to referendum.

[jaichind]

Is there a majority bonus? I see AKP is getting a higher share of seats that its results would entail. I thought Turkey used unaltered PR (although with an insanely high threshold).

The seats are allocated by region based on vote share and party list so in theory it is PR.  So larger parties have an advantage where they will also be above to threshold to get seats in all regions whereas smaller parties might win some votes in areas of weakness but not get any seats.  This is actually very similar to how Japan does seat allocation in the PR section.

[jaichind]

With MHP or HDP as coalition partners, AKP can get 60% needed to get Constitutional amendments to referendum.

It will be HDP.  But I am sure even if HDP agrees to this they will get their pound of flesh.

[Insula Dei]

Is there a majority bonus? I see AKP is getting a higher share of seats that its results would entail. I thought Turkey used unaltered PR (although with an insanely high threshold).

There's also quite a few 2 or 3-seat constituencies, which benefit large parties.

[Donnie]

99.51% counted:

AKP 40.84 %
CHP 25.12 %
MPH 16.43 %
HDP 12.84 %

[jaichind]

99.5% counted

AKP        40.8          258
CHP        25.1          132
MHP       16.4            82
HDP       12.8            78

[jaichind]

It seems, even if HDP were held under 10% and assuming the votes HDP lost were allocated to the 3 other main parties in proportion, AKP would have not captured 330 seats.  In Istanbul HDP got 11 seats which would have been split evenly between AKP and CHP/MHP had HDP been below 10%.  That by itself would have been enough for AKP to come very close to being below 330 even if the rest of HDP seats went to AKP (most of it will since most but not all of HDP seats are in SE Turkey.)  So in retrospect Erdogan's plan would not have worked anyway, even if he pushed up turnout to push HDP below 10%.

[jaichind]

Selahattin Demirtas, co-chairman HDP, thanked imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan for supporting peace after HDP wins representation in parliament and denies the ruling AKP a single-party govt.  This does not sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance that includes MHP.  If so we are looking at HDP supporting AKP from the outside or HDP joining AKP in an alliance.