IL-House 2016 Mega-Thread: Schneider internal shows him +4

[Mr. Illini]

Figured we could use one of these to condense news about Illinois House races.

Feel free to post predictions here as well.

[Mr. Illini]

Somewhat recent news that didn't get posted:

IL-10: Rotering is making an issue of assault weapons bans
No surprise, it is an entirely suburban/urban district and has a history of producing pro-gun control politicians on both sides

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150506/BLOGS02/150509897/north-suburban-congressional-hopeful-pushes-assault-weapons-ban

IL-13: David Gill will challenge Rodney Davis again...this time as an independent
Likely because Dems pushed him out of running last time

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2015-04-22/tom-kacich-gill-making-his-fifth-run-independent.html

IL-12: Bill Enyart is making waves in a lawsuit on behalf of the nation's farmers
Whether he runs again is unknown, almost unlikely IMO

http://www.bnd.com/news/local/article17741381.html

[Ebsy]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

[Mr. Illini]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Low in my opinion. The district sees higher turnout in Presidentials because of the large minority populations in Metro East, but the rural portion of the district represents an area that has been trending Republican very hard over the last 15 years.

[free my dawg]

>Gross. Typical that a suburbanite Democrat would make Gun Control for Suburbia an issue. Schneider still has my endorsement here.

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

>implying enyart is running

[CountryClassSF]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Mike Bost was my State Rep when I lived in Southern IL. Frankly, he's very mellow.

[Ebsy]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Mike Bost was my State Rep when I lived in Southern IL. Frankly, he's very mellow.

Do I even need to like the clips of him throwing temper tantrums in Springfield? I'm beginning to think you are just a sad troll.

[Gass3268]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Low in my opinion. The district sees higher turnout in Presidentials because of the large minority populations in Metro East, but the rural portion of the district represents an area that has been trending Republican very hard over the last 15 years.

Which is why they need to combine the best Democratic parts of IL-12 and IL-13 for 2020 redistricting.

[muon2]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Mike Bost was my State Rep when I lived in Southern IL. Frankly, he's very mellow.

Do I even need to like the clips of him throwing temper tantrums in Springfield? I'm beginning to think you are just a sad troll.

Do you understand that his role in the IL House GOP was to create interruptions on the floor when the majority was running bills too fast without time to react to them. He would joke about the antics over a drink afterward, including a drink with Dems.

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

[smoltchanov]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

[Miles]

^ Plus I don't think the district had moved any further to the left since 2012.

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

[smoltchanov]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

It was open then. It will not in 2016. And central Illinois also generally swung right in 2016. In addition - Republican congressman from 13th, while surely conservative, is NOT a firebrand right-winger...

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

It was open then. It will not in 2016. And central Illinois also generally swung right in 2016. In addition - Republican congressman from 13th, while surely conservative, is NOT a firebrand right-winger...

It is very easy to paint him as such

[smoltchanov]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

It was open then. It will not in 2016. And central Illinois also generally swung right in 2016. In addition - Republican congressman from 13th, while surely conservative, is NOT a firebrand right-winger...

It is very easy to paint him as such

May be. But it will be a lie. Davis's 0.366 rating according to Voteview.com is to the left of median line for  Republican substantially... He is "normal establishment pragmatic conservative Republican" - no more...

[free my dawg]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

If someone like Ann Callis could barely hold Davis under 60%, even in 2014, something is going very right for him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

If someone like Ann Callis could barely hold Davis under 60%, even in 2014, something is going very right for him.

Callis never seemed like a particularly great candidate and ran a pretty weak campaign in 2014.

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

If someone like Ann Callis could barely hold Davis under 60%, even in 2014, something is going very right for him.

And I don't get what it is

[Mr. Illini]

IL-10: Rotering launches primary challenge (video)

https://t.co/0IEpkYRsnA

[muon2]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't pointed out the active primary race for Dems to replace Duckworth in IL-08. There are two state senators (Cullerton and Noland) with established bases who each represent about 25-30% of the CD and 2012 candidate Krishnamoorthi.

[Torie]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't pointed out the active primary race for Dems to replace Duckworth in IL-08. There are two state senators (Cullerton and Noland) with established bases who each represent about 25-30% of the CD and 2012 candidate Krishnamoorthi.

Do you have any knowledge of how Kirk and Rauner did in IL-08? That would suggest the upper limit of Pub potential here.

[muon2]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't pointed out the active primary race for Dems to replace Duckworth in IL-08. There are two state senators (Cullerton and Noland) with established bases who each represent about 25-30% of the CD and 2012 candidate Krishnamoorthi.

Do you have any knowledge of how Kirk and Rauner did in IL-08? That would suggest the upper limit of Pub potential here.

Rauner did very well throughout the 'burbs. IL-8, 10 and 11 are all D+8, but all went to Rauner. According to Miles fine calculations they were 54.2%, 54.5%, and 51.6% respectively. A Pub like Dold could have some impact in IL-08, but it would be an uphill climb. I don't see anyone like that currently organizing, and petitions start circulating in Sept.

[Mr. Illini]

Chamber of Commerce prepared for full investment in Bob Dold

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

[smoltchanov]

Chamber of Commerce prepared for full investment in Bob Dold

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

Not surprising. And in THIS case i can only applaud: he is one of the most reasonable Republican congressmen of present days (initially i was for Coulson in 2010, but Dold turned out to be good too)