IL-House 2016 Mega-Thread: Schneider internal shows him +4

[PAK Man]

I don't believe this has been mentioned yet, but there are rumors that Danny Davis (IL-07) will be retiring.

He told a Crane's Chicago Business reporter that he is running for reelection, and reiterated his stance during a recent press conference, but the rumors continue to persist.

http://www.austinweeklynews.com/News/Articles/8-12-2015/Congressman-counters-retirement-rumors/

Some believe his former chief of staff, Richard Boykin, who is exploring a senate bid, is actually doing so just to prepare in case Davis decides to retire.

It's a Safe D district, so all the action will be the blue side if the seat opens up.

[Mr. Illini]

D-Trip Internal: Schneider up 8 on Dold, solid in primary challenge

http://atr.rollcall.com/illinois-polls-show-brad-schneider-leading-bob-dold-primary-opponent/

[Mr. Illini]

Dold to support LGBT rights Equality Act

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http://www.windycitymediagroup.com/lgbt/Dold-first-Republican-to-back-Equality-Act/53967.html

Nice to see him recognizing the reality of the district, but should not be confused with great courage (as shown by Schneider, who has been vocal in favor of LGBT rights since he joined politics).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Meh. I have mixed views on the equality act, but it's not like it's going to pass in the next 20 years anyways. Democrats aren't getting a house majority, a 60 seat senate majority, and the presidency all at the same time, and the Republicans still officially oppose even civil unions for same sex couples.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk has supported Civil Unions & Portman as well, and races are very tight.  These three races are gonna go be measured by how well the Prez Candidate does in their state.

Dems will do alot better in House elections than you think. 15--20 seats is possible with Trump or Cruz.

[Mr. Illini]

Durbin endorses Rotering over Schneider in IL-10

http://capitolfax.com/2016/01/19/durbin-goes-with-rotering/

Wish we had more recent polling here. I don't think she will win but it would be really unfortunate if she came out of nowhere on election night.

She's a great candidate, but if we want to win this seat, it has to be Brad.

[Mr. Illini]

D-Trip internal has Schneider up 42-33 in the 10th

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http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/dccc-internal-poll-shows-schneider-beating-dold-tossup-house-race

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Internal + 25% undecided = JUNK POLL!

[Mr. Illini]

Schneider Internal: Brad up 4 on Dold

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http://www.schneiderforcongress.com/campaign-updates/schneider-il-10-poll-memo

Not that great for an internal. It's within their margin of error.

[Mr.Phips]

Schneider will likely win 52%-48% again.  Don't see Dold winning in a Presidential year.

[ElectionsGuy]

That's not very good. This is a must win seat for Democrats to pick up the house.

And while some are talking about picking up IL-13, its funny because that district is already an attempted Democratic gerrymander and they can't win it. No Obama this time to increase Dems odds in Illinois either.

[publicunofficial]

That's not very good. This is a must win seat for Democrats to pick up the house.

And while some are talking about picking up IL-13, its funny because that district is already an attempted Democratic gerrymander and they can't win it. No Obama this time to increase Dems odds in Illinois either.

I barely see anyone talking about IL-13 this cycle. Only Charlie Cook has it rated anything less than Safe R.

[Heisenberg]

Schneider will likely win 52%-48% again.  Don't see Dold winning in a Presidential year.

He does have Kirk (from his district) on statewide ballot in the Senate race. It's Dold's only hope, really.

[Mr. Illini]

That's not very good. This is a must win seat for Democrats to pick up the house.

And while some are talking about picking up IL-13, its funny because that district is already an attempted Democratic gerrymander and they can't win it. No Obama this time to increase Dems odds in Illinois either.

Dems are realizing it was a failed attempt, although they came close in 2012. Won't be happening this round because there is a Democrat and a progressive independent in the race. Expect a different district in 2020 that takes some of the most progressive areas of IL-13 and IL-12 and combines them into one downstate Dem district.

I definitely agree that the internal isn't very positive.

[Mr.Phips]

Schneider will likely win 52%-48% again.  Don't see Dold winning in a Presidential year.

He does have Kirk (from his district) on statewide ballot in the Senate race. It's Dold's only hope, really.

Kirk only won this district 53%-43% in 2010 when he was winning statewide.  If Kirk wins this district at all, it won't be enough to provide any coattails.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schneider will likely win 52%-48% again.  Don't see Dold winning in a Presidential year.

He does have Kirk (from his district) on statewide ballot in the Senate race. It's Dold's only hope, really.

Kirk only won this district 53%-43% in 2010 when he was winning statewide.  If Kirk wins this district at all, it won't be enough to provide any coattails.

Plus, Kirk's never been the same since that stroke and seems to have acquired a bad case of foot-in-mouth.  I don't think he's that much of an asset to Kirk anymore.

[ill ind]

Il-13is going nowhere.  Il-12 is a tiny bit interesting.  The Den challenger Baricevic has raised some money.  However, I'd peg the district as an area Trump will run well, not to mention Bsricevic's ties to the StClair County Democratic machine which isn't known for its crystal clean ethics.

[Illiniwek]

13 is going to end up being Rodney Davis' seat until 2022. I actually don't mind the guy for a Republican, it just sucks that the Dem's attempt at gerrymandering that was unsuccessful. They will get it next time around.

Schneider is going to beat Dold. Other than 10 the only one that might flip is 12. 12 will go if Hillary wins big.

I can't wait to see my next door neighbor lose in the 11th

[muon2]

That's not very good. This is a must win seat for Democrats to pick up the house.

And while some are talking about picking up IL-13, its funny because that district is already an attempted Democratic gerrymander and they can't win it. No Obama this time to increase Dems odds in Illinois either.

Dems are realizing it was a failed attempt, although they came close in 2012. Won't be happening this round because there is a Democrat and a progressive independent in the race. Expect a different district in 2020 that takes some of the most progressive areas of IL-13 and IL-12 and combines them into one downstate Dem district.

I definitely agree that the internal isn't very positive.

The irony is that the DCCC knew that IL-12 and 13 were marginal at best for them in 2011 when they drew the seats. But they wanted to make an immediate play for Congress in 2012 and maximizing IL was unavoidable for that strategy. They could have drawn a relatively secure IL-12 that would have held up after Costello's retirement. It gets harder to do the same in 2021 with the declining downstate population, larger CD size, and general shift of southern IL towards the Pubs.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

13 is going to end up being Rodney Davis' seat until 2022. I actually don't mind the guy for a Republican, it just sucks that the Dem's attempt at gerrymandering that was unsuccessful. They will get it next time around.

Schneider is going to beat Dold. Other than 10 the only one that might flip is 12. 12 will go if Hillary wins big.

I can't wait to see my next door neighbor lose in the 11th

Look, here's the deal. Downstate Democrats can basically elect two congressmen: one in the old industrial northwest (current 17th) and Metro-East (current 12th, 13th). When Madigan ruined things is when he tried to get overly ambitious with the Metro-East bloc by splitting it in half and trying to overpower a huge swath of rural territory. Metro-East should be all together in one district, which would probably be a Likely or even Safe D district. Any attempt to split downstate Dems into more than two districts will leave them with one or none. Any attempt to place them all into one district would involve some very ambitious gerrymandering. The obvious choice is to have a Metro-East district and a northwest district similar to the 17th and split the remainder into rural Republicam territory.

[ill ind]

Today is the last day to file as an independent/third party candidate for congressional elections in Illinois.

Filing is open until 5:00pm, but so far we have Kenton McMillen running as a Libertarian in the Senate race.  I couldn't remember his name until today, even though I signed his nominating petitions.

Eric Martin White running as an independent in the 6th and
Joseph Schreiner running as a Libertarian in the 16th.

The last two are puzzling as both have addresses listed in Chicago, and neither district contains any portion of Chicago.  Then again you don't have to actually live in a congressional distric to run there.

[muon2]

Today is the last day to file as an independent/third party candidate for congressional elections in Illinois.

Filing is open until 5:00pm, but so far we have Kenton McMillen running as a Libertarian in the Senate race.  I couldn't remember his name until today, even though I signed his nominating petitions.

Eric Martin White running as an independent in the 6th and
Joseph Schreiner running as a Libertarian in the 16th.

The last two are puzzling as both have addresses listed in Chicago, and neither district contains any portion of Chicago.  Then again you don't have to actually live in a congressional distric to run there.

White filed for state rep not Congress.