IL-House 2016 Mega-Thread: Schneider internal shows him +4

[Mr. Illini]

Figured we could use one of these to condense news about Illinois House races.

Feel free to post predictions here as well.

[Mr. Illini]

Somewhat recent news that didn't get posted:

IL-10: Rotering is making an issue of assault weapons bans
No surprise, it is an entirely suburban/urban district and has a history of producing pro-gun control politicians on both sides

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150506/BLOGS02/150509897/north-suburban-congressional-hopeful-pushes-assault-weapons-ban

IL-13: David Gill will challenge Rodney Davis again...this time as an independent
Likely because Dems pushed him out of running last time

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2015-04-22/tom-kacich-gill-making-his-fifth-run-independent.html

IL-12: Bill Enyart is making waves in a lawsuit on behalf of the nation's farmers
Whether he runs again is unknown, almost unlikely IMO

http://www.bnd.com/news/local/article17741381.html

[Mr. Illini]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Low in my opinion. The district sees higher turnout in Presidentials because of the large minority populations in Metro East, but the rural portion of the district represents an area that has been trending Republican very hard over the last 15 years.

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

It was open then. It will not in 2016. And central Illinois also generally swung right in 2016. In addition - Republican congressman from 13th, while surely conservative, is NOT a firebrand right-winger...

It is very easy to paint him as such

[Mr. Illini]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

If someone like Ann Callis could barely hold Davis under 60%, even in 2014, something is going very right for him.

And I don't get what it is

[Mr. Illini]

IL-10: Rotering launches primary challenge (video)

https://t.co/0IEpkYRsnA

[Mr. Illini]

Chamber of Commerce prepared for full investment in Bob Dold

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

[Mr. Illini]

D-Trip Internal: Schneider up 8 on Dold, solid in primary challenge

http://atr.rollcall.com/illinois-polls-show-brad-schneider-leading-bob-dold-primary-opponent/

[Mr. Illini]

Dold to support LGBT rights Equality Act

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http://www.windycitymediagroup.com/lgbt/Dold-first-Republican-to-back-Equality-Act/53967.html

Nice to see him recognizing the reality of the district, but should not be confused with great courage (as shown by Schneider, who has been vocal in favor of LGBT rights since he joined politics).

[Mr. Illini]

Durbin endorses Rotering over Schneider in IL-10

http://capitolfax.com/2016/01/19/durbin-goes-with-rotering/

Wish we had more recent polling here. I don't think she will win but it would be really unfortunate if she came out of nowhere on election night.

She's a great candidate, but if we want to win this seat, it has to be Brad.

[Mr. Illini]

D-Trip internal has Schneider up 42-33 in the 10th

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http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/dccc-internal-poll-shows-schneider-beating-dold-tossup-house-race

[Mr. Illini]

Schneider Internal: Brad up 4 on Dold

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http://www.schneiderforcongress.com/campaign-updates/schneider-il-10-poll-memo

Not that great for an internal. It's within their margin of error.

[Mr. Illini]

That's not very good. This is a must win seat for Democrats to pick up the house.

And while some are talking about picking up IL-13, its funny because that district is already an attempted Democratic gerrymander and they can't win it. No Obama this time to increase Dems odds in Illinois either.

Dems are realizing it was a failed attempt, although they came close in 2012. Won't be happening this round because there is a Democrat and a progressive independent in the race. Expect a different district in 2020 that takes some of the most progressive areas of IL-13 and IL-12 and combines them into one downstate Dem district.

I definitely agree that the internal isn't very positive.