IL-House 2016 Mega-Thread: Schneider internal shows him +4

[muon2]

What are Democrats chances of getting rid of the TERRIBLE Mike Bost? I miss Bill Enyart.

Mike Bost was my State Rep when I lived in Southern IL. Frankly, he's very mellow.

Do I even need to like the clips of him throwing temper tantrums in Springfield? I'm beginning to think you are just a sad troll.

Do you understand that his role in the IL House GOP was to create interruptions on the floor when the majority was running bills too fast without time to react to them. He would joke about the antics over a drink afterward, including a drink with Dems.

[muon2]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't pointed out the active primary race for Dems to replace Duckworth in IL-08. There are two state senators (Cullerton and Noland) with established bases who each represent about 25-30% of the CD and 2012 candidate Krishnamoorthi.

[muon2]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't pointed out the active primary race for Dems to replace Duckworth in IL-08. There are two state senators (Cullerton and Noland) with established bases who each represent about 25-30% of the CD and 2012 candidate Krishnamoorthi.

Do you have any knowledge of how Kirk and Rauner did in IL-08? That would suggest the upper limit of Pub potential here.

Rauner did very well throughout the 'burbs. IL-8, 10 and 11 are all D+8, but all went to Rauner. According to Miles fine calculations they were 54.2%, 54.5%, and 51.6% respectively. A Pub like Dold could have some impact in IL-08, but it would be an uphill climb. I don't see anyone like that currently organizing, and petitions start circulating in Sept.

[muon2]

That's not very good. This is a must win seat for Democrats to pick up the house.

And while some are talking about picking up IL-13, its funny because that district is already an attempted Democratic gerrymander and they can't win it. No Obama this time to increase Dems odds in Illinois either.

Dems are realizing it was a failed attempt, although they came close in 2012. Won't be happening this round because there is a Democrat and a progressive independent in the race. Expect a different district in 2020 that takes some of the most progressive areas of IL-13 and IL-12 and combines them into one downstate Dem district.

I definitely agree that the internal isn't very positive.

The irony is that the DCCC knew that IL-12 and 13 were marginal at best for them in 2011 when they drew the seats. But they wanted to make an immediate play for Congress in 2012 and maximizing IL was unavoidable for that strategy. They could have drawn a relatively secure IL-12 that would have held up after Costello's retirement. It gets harder to do the same in 2021 with the declining downstate population, larger CD size, and general shift of southern IL towards the Pubs.

[muon2]

Today is the last day to file as an independent/third party candidate for congressional elections in Illinois.

Filing is open until 5:00pm, but so far we have Kenton McMillen running as a Libertarian in the Senate race.  I couldn't remember his name until today, even though I signed his nominating petitions.

Eric Martin White running as an independent in the 6th and
Joseph Schreiner running as a Libertarian in the 16th.

The last two are puzzling as both have addresses listed in Chicago, and neither district contains any portion of Chicago.  Then again you don't have to actually live in a congressional distric to run there.

White filed for state rep not Congress.