IL-House 2016 Mega-Thread: Schneider internal shows him +4

[smoltchanov]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

[smoltchanov]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

It was open then. It will not in 2016. And central Illinois also generally swung right in 2016. In addition - Republican congressman from 13th, while surely conservative, is NOT a firebrand right-winger...

[smoltchanov]

>implying democrats can pick up IL-13

I don't see why they couldn't. It obviously wasn't close in 2014, but if a progressive like Gill could make it razor thin in 2012, then a less progressive Democrat should be able to win it in a more favorable year than 2014.

No. To win there Democrats need BOTH year like 2006-008 (and so far it's not there) AND substantially less liberal (and well-financed) candidate then Gill...

2012 was a less favorable year and they came within a percentage point with Gill on the ticket

It was open then. It will not in 2016. And central Illinois also generally swung right in 2016. In addition - Republican congressman from 13th, while surely conservative, is NOT a firebrand right-winger...

It is very easy to paint him as such

May be. But it will be a lie. Davis's 0.366 rating according to Voteview.com is to the left of median line for  Republican substantially... He is "normal establishment pragmatic conservative Republican" - no more...

[smoltchanov]

Chamber of Commerce prepared for full investment in Bob Dold

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

Not surprising. And in THIS case i can only applaud: he is one of the most reasonable Republican congressmen of present days (initially i was for Coulson in 2010, but Dold turned out to be good too)